2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 7/5/2004

TradeSports.com ^ | Monday, July 5, 2004 | Momaw Nadon

[Momaw Nadon]

State	% Chance of Bush Winning	Bush Electoral Votes	Kerry Electoral Votes
Alabama	96.0	9	0
Alaska	94.0	3	0
Arizona	73.0	10	0
Arkansas	62.0	6	0
California	13.2	0	55
Colorado	79.0	9	0
Connecticut	10.0	0	7
Delaware	21.0	0	3
District of Columbia	0.5	0	3
Florida	59.0	27	0
Georgia	93.0	15	0
Hawaii	9.0	0	4
Idaho	95.0	4	0
Illinois	13.0	0	21
Indiana	93.0	11	0
Iowa	40.0	0	7
Kansas	94.0	6	0
Kentucky	90.0	8	0
Louisiana	83.0	9	0
Maine	22.0	0	4
Maryland	13.0	0	10
Massachusetts	3.0	0	12
Michigan	37.0	0	17
Minnesota	32.0	0	10
Mississippi	97.0	6	0
Missouri	61.0	11	0
Montana	93.0	3	0
Nebraska	96.0	5	0
Nevada	59.6	5	0
New Hampshire	53.0	4	0
New Jersey	18.0	0	15
New Mexico	49.0	0	5
New York	8.6	0	31
North Carolina	76.0	15	0
North Dakota	97.0	3	0
Ohio	57.0	20	0
Oklahoma	97.0	7	0
Oregon	45.0	0	7
Pennsylvania	44.0	0	21
Rhode Island	6.0	0	4
South Carolina	91.0	8	0
South Dakota	95.0	3	0
Tennessee	87.0	11	0
Texas	96.0	34	0
Utah	96.0	5	0
Vermont	6.0	0	3
Virginia	81.0	13	0
Washington	27.0	0	11
West Virginia	55.0	5	0
Wisconsin	42.0	0	10
Wyoming	96.0	3	0
Totals		278	260

[Momaw Nadon]

I went to TradeSports.com which is a futures market in which people bet on the outcomes of various things.

According to the current trading prices of the futures contracts, an estimate can be found of what traders are betting will be the outcome of 2004 Presidential Election.

If the traders are correct, President Bush would receive 278 Electoral Votes and John Kerry would receive 260 Electoral Votes.

If the weighted probabilities of President Bush winning in the states are added up, and then divided by 538, and multiplied by 100, then President Bush should get 279.15 Electoral Votes.

270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the Presidency.

Opinions and commentary are welcome.

[Momaw Nadon]

Previous projections:

2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/28/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/21/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/14/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/7/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/31/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/24/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/17/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/10/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/3/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/26/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/19/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/12/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/5/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/29/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/22/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/15/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/8/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/1/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/23/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/16/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/9/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/2/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/26/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/21/2004

[Momaw Nadon]

[Momaw Nadon]

[Momaw Nadon]

If you want on (or off) of the weekly TradeSports.com Projected Presidential Electoral Vote ping list, please let me know via FREEPmail.

[RepubMommy]

ping to self for later reading.

[Terpfen]

Wait, what's the logic of California going to Kerry with such a high margin? I think you're underestimating the effects of the recall and Schwarzenegger's influence in campaigning for Bush. California is a battleground state now; it's not solidly for Kerry.

[Ozarkie]

Why are none of these states split in any way?

[Mercat]

Thanks. Looks like the free fall is flattening out. It will be interesting to see whether F-711 has any effect up or down.

[G.Mason]

on! please?

[Clintonfatigued]

Interesting information. Some interesting polling I have seen is that John Kerry is only slightly ahead in New Jersey, which Al Gore won handily, and is running even in Michigan. Bush will definitely improve on his 2000 showing in New York, but that won't matter much.

[Momaw Nadon]

Wait, what's the logic of California going to Kerry with such a high margin?

I don't know the logic of this.

However, the political futures traders on TradeSports.com seem to think that President Bush only has a 13.2% chance of winning California.

[spokeshave]

I believe Maine splits their electoral votes..not sure of any others

[Terpfen]

This is why I don't bet on sports...

[Momaw Nadon]

Why are none of these states split in any way?

I would split Maine and Nebraska if TradeSports.com would reflect this information in their futures contracts.

[Momaw Nadon]

All set.

[NittanyLion]

California is a battleground state now; it's not solidly for Kerry.

I disagree. I think you're overestimating the impact of a Republican governor. CA is a solidly liberal state and will remain so for the foreseeable future. If CA becomes a "battleground state" it will mean Bush has won a huge landslide.

[Terpfen]

"If CA becomes a 'battleground state' it will mean Bush has won a huge landslide."

Traditional Democrat strongholds are battleground states this year. New Jersey, for example: a few weeks ago, there was a flurry of stories on FR about how the Kerry campaign is spending serious money in New Jersey because Bush is gaining ground there. This is the state that gave us the Torch-Lout switch, and Bush is storming the place. I think you need to throw out much of the conventional political wisdom this year, and prepare for a Bush landslide: despite the prevalent pessimism here, Bush is going to win re-election, and he'll do it by solid margins in every state. I'm not saying we're looking at a 1972 or 1984 here, but it'll be a margin of victory such that Kerry won't be able to contest the results ala Al Gore.

[G.Mason]

Much appreciated.

[Dr Snide]

The last several polls have shown Wisconsin to be in the Bush category. I think that support will only become more firm as the economic recovery (and the reality of the recovery) become more entrenched here and people see more of John Kerry. Unless Kerry selects Russ Feingold as VP (Wisconsinites largely like him for his populist act rather than his politics) Wisconsin will likely go Bush this time around.