Posted on 07/05/2004 8:25:57 AM PDT by Momaw Nadon
State | % Chance of Bush Winning | Bush Electoral Votes | Kerry Electoral Votes |
Alabama | 96.0 | 9 | 0 |
Alaska | 94.0 | 3 | 0 |
Arizona | 73.0 | 10 | 0 |
Arkansas | 62.0 | 6 | 0 |
California | 13.2 | 0 | 55 |
Colorado | 79.0 | 9 | 0 |
Connecticut | 10.0 | 0 | 7 |
Delaware | 21.0 | 0 | 3 |
District of Columbia | 0.5 | 0 | 3 |
Florida | 59.0 | 27 | 0 |
Georgia | 93.0 | 15 | 0 |
Hawaii | 9.0 | 0 | 4 |
Idaho | 95.0 | 4 | 0 |
Illinois | 13.0 | 0 | 21 |
Indiana | 93.0 | 11 | 0 |
Iowa | 40.0 | 0 | 7 |
Kansas | 94.0 | 6 | 0 |
Kentucky | 90.0 | 8 | 0 |
Louisiana | 83.0 | 9 | 0 |
Maine | 22.0 | 0 | 4 |
Maryland | 13.0 | 0 | 10 |
Massachusetts | 3.0 | 0 | 12 |
Michigan | 37.0 | 0 | 17 |
Minnesota | 32.0 | 0 | 10 |
Mississippi | 97.0 | 6 | 0 |
Missouri | 61.0 | 11 | 0 |
Montana | 93.0 | 3 | 0 |
Nebraska | 96.0 | 5 | 0 |
Nevada | 59.6 | 5 | 0 |
New Hampshire | 53.0 | 4 | 0 |
New Jersey | 18.0 | 0 | 15 |
New Mexico | 49.0 | 0 | 5 |
New York | 8.6 | 0 | 31 |
North Carolina | 76.0 | 15 | 0 |
North Dakota | 97.0 | 3 | 0 |
Ohio | 57.0 | 20 | 0 |
Oklahoma | 97.0 | 7 | 0 |
Oregon | 45.0 | 0 | 7 |
Pennsylvania | 44.0 | 0 | 21 |
Rhode Island | 6.0 | 0 | 4 |
South Carolina | 91.0 | 8 | 0 |
South Dakota | 95.0 | 3 | 0 |
Tennessee | 87.0 | 11 | 0 |
Texas | 96.0 | 34 | 0 |
Utah | 96.0 | 5 | 0 |
Vermont | 6.0 | 0 | 3 |
Virginia | 81.0 | 13 | 0 |
Washington | 27.0 | 0 | 11 |
West Virginia | 55.0 | 5 | 0 |
Wisconsin | 42.0 | 0 | 10 |
Wyoming | 96.0 | 3 | 0 |
Totals | 278 | 260 |
According to the current trading prices of the futures contracts, an estimate can be found of what traders are betting will be the outcome of 2004 Presidential Election.
If the traders are correct, President Bush would receive 278 Electoral Votes and John Kerry would receive 260 Electoral Votes.
If the weighted probabilities of President Bush winning in the states are added up, and then divided by 538, and multiplied by 100, then President Bush should get 279.15 Electoral Votes.
270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the Presidency.
Opinions and commentary are welcome.
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/28/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/21/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/14/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/7/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/31/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/24/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/17/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/10/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/3/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/26/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/19/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/12/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/5/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/29/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/22/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/15/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/8/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/1/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/23/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/16/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/9/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/2/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/26/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/21/2004
ping to self for later reading.
Wait, what's the logic of California going to Kerry with such a high margin? I think you're underestimating the effects of the recall and Schwarzenegger's influence in campaigning for Bush. California is a battleground state now; it's not solidly for Kerry.
Why are none of these states split in any way?
Thanks. Looks like the free fall is flattening out. It will be interesting to see whether F-711 has any effect up or down.
Interesting information. Some interesting polling I have seen is that John Kerry is only slightly ahead in New Jersey, which Al Gore won handily, and is running even in Michigan. Bush will definitely improve on his 2000 showing in New York, but that won't matter much.
I don't know the logic of this.
However, the political futures traders on TradeSports.com seem to think that President Bush only has a 13.2% chance of winning California.
This is why I don't bet on sports...
I would split Maine and Nebraska if TradeSports.com would reflect this information in their futures contracts.
All set.
I disagree. I think you're overestimating the impact of a Republican governor. CA is a solidly liberal state and will remain so for the foreseeable future. If CA becomes a "battleground state" it will mean Bush has won a huge landslide.
Much appreciated.
The last several polls have shown Wisconsin to be in the Bush category. I think that support will only become more firm as the economic recovery (and the reality of the recovery) become more entrenched here and people see more of John Kerry. Unless Kerry selects Russ Feingold as VP (Wisconsinites largely like him for his populist act rather than his politics) Wisconsin will likely go Bush this time around.
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