Posted on 07/05/2004 8:25:57 AM PDT by Momaw Nadon
This is excellent news. Apparently using the futures markets as predictors has a far higher accuracy than opinion polls (especially this far from the actual election), mainly because polls ask people what they would do now, whereas the markets take analysts making detailed considerations.
Good graph-- thanks.
Sorry, but California is not a battleground state in my opinion. It will go for Kerry. The state is still Democrat by a large majority. The reason Schwarzenegger won the recall is because he's a celebrity- bottom line. The young and middle-aged people of that state thought it'd be "cool" to have the "Terminator" as their Governor. The same thing happened in Minnesota a few years ago, when Jesse "The Body" Ventura became Governor. As sad as it is, celebrities sell in politics.
BTTT
"I didn't compare state by state, but 278-260 is the exact finish of the 2000 election - after revising for the +7 Bush reapportionment of electoral votes."
We were in Charleston WV and witnessed a guy "trying" to hand out Kerry stickers. There were very few takers. Also heard a yell of "Ketchup!". There also appeared to be some leftovers from protesting the President earlier in the day..
Individually no, but collectively perhaps yes - which is where these markets come in. Consider betting lines for sporting events, lots of people with little knowledge can correct for intrinsic factors and develop spreads which are as close to 50/50 as you can get.
All true, but what we look for are "inside traders" of such knowledge. We don't care how the great unwashed study polls of the great unwashed.
That's not really true. You can try this experiment with a large bunch of your friends. Guess the number of jelly beans in a jar or guess the weight of something - have people write down their guesses. Then average them up and see that the average is closer to the right number than most of the guesses. Similar principle at work - add together enough guesses with little information and you get a composite guess that contains a lot of information.
Actually, the model is more like this. Take a refrigerator box, put a jar of jellybeans in it and seal it. Then ask your friends how many jellybeans are in the jar, but, they are allowed to look at each others' guesses. What happens is that people go along with previous guesses. They cannot possibly know how large the jar is because it's obscured by the box. That's the problem here. The traders only know what they read in the news. We care more about inside information. We can read the polls ourselves.
iirc, the ballot was postmarked in plenty of time to make it to him before the election, so the problem was with the delivery system, wink wink
look, a college kid went to all the trouble to contact the proper authorities, fill out the paperwork, and wait patiently for his ballot to arrive--in short, he did his duty as a responsible citizen, and yet, his opportunity to vote for President for the first time was denied, whether purposely or not, we probably won't ever know. he was rightfully quite upset.
in squeaker states like Wisconsin, yeah, i'd say we need poll watchers, all right...i have witnessed electioneering first-hand by poll workers (mild suggestions, but nonetheless, it got my dander up...yes, i should have reported it, but you're in Wisconsin, how many people here really raise a stink about anything??? if you do, you usually get a blank stare--just MHO)
but let me say, i'm sure there are many wonderful Wisconsites out there who do indeed raise stinks, and i did not intend to impugn you all, i'm sure my own experience is narrow and selective
Here's my bold prediction: the 2004 Electoral map will not be the same as the 2000 map. And Bush will win.
IS it just me, or do I see a steady decline for our man Bush?
"California is a battleground state now; it's not solidly for Kerry."
Dream on. Bush has about a 2% chance of carrying California, just as he has a 0% chance of carrying Illinois, Massachusetts and D.C. True, Bush will likely do better in California in 2004 than he did in 2000, but he lost in California in 2000 by some some 20 points.
| Date | Prob. Bush Win | Mean EVs | Std. Dev. |
| 01/21 | 96.8% | 341.5 | 41.1 |
| 01/26 | 95.5% | 334.8 | 40.6 |
| 02/02 | 92.2% | 323.8 | 39.7 |
| 02/09 | 83.0% | 307.8 | 40.3 |
| 02/16 | 78.4% | 300.4 | 39.4 |
| 02/23 | 76.2% | 298.2 | 39.6 |
| 03/01 | 74.5% | 295.9 | 39.3 |
| 03/08 | 68.0% | 289.2 | 39.8 |
| 03/15 | 68.0% | 288.8 | 39.0 |
| 03/22 | 68.5% | 289.3 | 38.8 |
| 03/29 | 69.4% | 290.1 | 38.8 |
| 04/05 | 71.2% | 292.3 | 39.1 |
| 04/12 | 70.4% | 290.6 | 38.1 |
| 04/19 | 68.6% | 288.1 | 36.7 |
| 04/26 | 64.9% | 284.5 | 36.3 |
| 05/03 | 66.3% | 285.7 | 36.3 |
| 05/10 | 65.6% | 285.3 | 36.8 |
| 05/17 | 65.2% | 284.8 | 36.6 |
| 05/24 | 60.0% | 280.3 | 36.9 |
| 05/31 | 61.1% | 281.2 | 36.8 |
| 06/07 | 60.5% | 280.6 | 36.5 |
| 06/14 | 65.0% | 285.0 | 36.6 |
| 06/21 | 63.9% | 284.0 | 36.8 |
| 06/28 | 58.4% | 278.8 | 36.7 |
| 07/05 | 58.7% | 279.1 | 36.7 |
At my local 4th of July Parade, we had a Kerry supporter kicking a dog that was festooned with Bush placards.
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