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"If CA becomes a 'battleground state' it will mean Bush has won a huge landslide."

Traditional Democrat strongholds are battleground states this year. New Jersey, for example: a few weeks ago, there was a flurry of stories on FR about how the Kerry campaign is spending serious money in New Jersey because Bush is gaining ground there. This is the state that gave us the Torch-Lout switch, and Bush is storming the place. I think you need to throw out much of the conventional political wisdom this year, and prepare for a Bush landslide: despite the prevalent pessimism here, Bush is going to win re-election, and he'll do it by solid margins in every state. I'm not saying we're looking at a 1972 or 1984 here, but it'll be a margin of victory such that Kerry won't be able to contest the results ala Al Gore.

New Jersey, for example: a few weeks ago, there was a flurry of stories on FR about how the Kerry campaign is spending serious money in New Jersey because Bush is gaining ground there. This is the state that gave us the Torch-Lout switch, and Bush is storming the place.

NJ felt the impact of 9/11 as much as any state. That is what's changed the dynamic there, although I believe it will ultimately go for Kerry anyway.

I think you need to throw out much of the conventional political wisdom this year, and prepare for a Bush landslide: despite the prevalent pessimism here, Bush is going to win re-election, and he'll do it by solid margins in every state. I'm not saying we're looking at a 1972 or 1984 here, but it'll be a margin of victory such that Kerry won't be able to contest the results ala Al Gore.

I agree that the election will end up being won by a comfortable margin one way or the other. And based on the economy and Iraq, it seems likely the tide will turn in favor of Bush.