[Terpfen]

Wait, what's the logic of California going to Kerry with such a high margin? I think you're underestimating the effects of the recall and Schwarzenegger's influence in campaigning for Bush. California is a battleground state now; it's not solidly for Kerry.

[Momaw Nadon]

Wait, what's the logic of California going to Kerry with such a high margin?

I don't know the logic of this.

However, the political futures traders on TradeSports.com seem to think that President Bush only has a 13.2% chance of winning California.

[NittanyLion]

California is a battleground state now; it's not solidly for Kerry.

I disagree. I think you're overestimating the impact of a Republican governor. CA is a solidly liberal state and will remain so for the foreseeable future. If CA becomes a "battleground state" it will mean Bush has won a huge landslide.

[richmwill]

Sorry, but California is not a battleground state in my opinion. It will go for Kerry. The state is still Democrat by a large majority. The reason Schwarzenegger won the recall is because he's a celebrity- bottom line. The young and middle-aged people of that state thought it'd be "cool" to have the "Terminator" as their Governor. The same thing happened in Minnesota a few years ago, when Jesse "The Body" Ventura became Governor. As sad as it is, celebrities sell in politics.

[ought-six]

"California is a battleground state now; it's not solidly for Kerry."

Dream on. Bush has about a 2% chance of carrying California, just as he has a 0% chance of carrying Illinois, Massachusetts and D.C. True, Bush will likely do better in California in 2004 than he did in 2000, but he lost in California in 2000 by some some 20 points.

[SunkenCiv]

I agree. Bush is competitive in California, has been for some time. The reason Rob Reiner et al were so vitriolic in their opposition to the recall of the corrupt incompetent Gray Davis is that they could see what the possible consequence could be.

Gore barely campaigned in California, and spent very little money there, regarding it (correctly) as locked up in his favor. Kerry has raised more money than GWB now, but will need to spend it in the expensive California campaign market -- because, if he loses California, he's all done. He's all done anyway, but California makes or breaks him, since he doesn't have Florida or Texas.

Sidebar -- Kerry's no longer the financial underdog, which pulls another rug out from under another of his very shallow, superficial campaign. And it underscores the apparent fact that special interests and filthy rich are disproportionately supporting Kerry.

George W. Bush will be reelected by a margin of at least ten per cent