According to the current trading prices of the futures contracts, an estimate can be found of what traders are betting will be the outcome of 2004 Presidential Election.
If the traders are correct, President Bush would receive 278 Electoral Votes and John Kerry would receive 260 Electoral Votes.
If the weighted probabilities of President Bush winning in the states are added up, and then divided by 538, and multiplied by 100, then President Bush should get 279.15 Electoral Votes.
270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the Presidency.
Opinions and commentary are welcome.
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/28/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/21/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/14/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/7/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/31/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/24/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/17/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/10/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/3/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/26/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/19/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/12/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/5/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/29/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/22/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/15/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/8/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/1/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/23/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/16/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/9/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/2/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/26/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/21/2004
ping to self for later reading.
Wait, what's the logic of California going to Kerry with such a high margin? I think you're underestimating the effects of the recall and Schwarzenegger's influence in campaigning for Bush. California is a battleground state now; it's not solidly for Kerry.
Why are none of these states split in any way?
Interesting information. Some interesting polling I have seen is that John Kerry is only slightly ahead in New Jersey, which Al Gore won handily, and is running even in Michigan. Bush will definitely improve on his 2000 showing in New York, but that won't matter much.
The last several polls have shown Wisconsin to be in the Bush category. I think that support will only become more firm as the economic recovery (and the reality of the recovery) become more entrenched here and people see more of John Kerry. Unless Kerry selects Russ Feingold as VP (Wisconsinites largely like him for his populist act rather than his politics) Wisconsin will likely go Bush this time around.
A note:
The futures market now has the race exactly as it went in 2000.
It's now about the same at the other two futures markets:
Iowa Markets http://www.biz.uiowa.edu/iem/
Irish web futures market site
http://www.intrade.com
I didn't compare state by state, but 278-260 is the exact finish of the 2000 election - after revising for the +7 Bush reapportionment of electoral votes.
Thanks for doing this. I've been wanting to see something like this. Could we do it weekly? Or bi-weekly?
This is very interesting. I see from the posts that the projections were on point for 2000. Would you put me on your list? I'd like to keep an eye on it.
This is excellent news. Apparently using the futures markets as predictors has a far higher accuracy than opinion polls (especially this far from the actual election), mainly because polls ask people what they would do now, whereas the markets take analysts making detailed considerations.
BTTT
We were in Charleston WV and witnessed a guy "trying" to hand out Kerry stickers. There were very few takers. Also heard a yell of "Ketchup!". There also appeared to be some leftovers from protesting the President earlier in the day..
Here's my bold prediction: the 2004 Electoral map will not be the same as the 2000 map. And Bush will win.
IS it just me, or do I see a steady decline for our man Bush?
| Date | Prob. Bush Win | Mean EVs | Std. Dev. |
| 01/21 | 96.8% | 341.5 | 41.1 |
| 01/26 | 95.5% | 334.8 | 40.6 |
| 02/02 | 92.2% | 323.8 | 39.7 |
| 02/09 | 83.0% | 307.8 | 40.3 |
| 02/16 | 78.4% | 300.4 | 39.4 |
| 02/23 | 76.2% | 298.2 | 39.6 |
| 03/01 | 74.5% | 295.9 | 39.3 |
| 03/08 | 68.0% | 289.2 | 39.8 |
| 03/15 | 68.0% | 288.8 | 39.0 |
| 03/22 | 68.5% | 289.3 | 38.8 |
| 03/29 | 69.4% | 290.1 | 38.8 |
| 04/05 | 71.2% | 292.3 | 39.1 |
| 04/12 | 70.4% | 290.6 | 38.1 |
| 04/19 | 68.6% | 288.1 | 36.7 |
| 04/26 | 64.9% | 284.5 | 36.3 |
| 05/03 | 66.3% | 285.7 | 36.3 |
| 05/10 | 65.6% | 285.3 | 36.8 |
| 05/17 | 65.2% | 284.8 | 36.6 |
| 05/24 | 60.0% | 280.3 | 36.9 |
| 05/31 | 61.1% | 281.2 | 36.8 |
| 06/07 | 60.5% | 280.6 | 36.5 |
| 06/14 | 65.0% | 285.0 | 36.6 |
| 06/21 | 63.9% | 284.0 | 36.8 |
| 06/28 | 58.4% | 278.8 | 36.7 |
| 07/05 | 58.7% | 279.1 | 36.7 |