2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 7/5/2004

TradeSports.com ^ | Monday, July 5, 2004 | Momaw Nadon

[Momaw Nadon]

State	% Chance of Bush Winning	Bush Electoral Votes	Kerry Electoral Votes
Alabama	96.0	9	0
Alaska	94.0	3	0
Arizona	73.0	10	0
Arkansas	62.0	6	0
California	13.2	0	55
Colorado	79.0	9	0
Connecticut	10.0	0	7
Delaware	21.0	0	3
District of Columbia	0.5	0	3
Florida	59.0	27	0
Georgia	93.0	15	0
Hawaii	9.0	0	4
Idaho	95.0	4	0
Illinois	13.0	0	21
Indiana	93.0	11	0
Iowa	40.0	0	7
Kansas	94.0	6	0
Kentucky	90.0	8	0
Louisiana	83.0	9	0
Maine	22.0	0	4
Maryland	13.0	0	10
Massachusetts	3.0	0	12
Michigan	37.0	0	17
Minnesota	32.0	0	10
Mississippi	97.0	6	0
Missouri	61.0	11	0
Montana	93.0	3	0
Nebraska	96.0	5	0
Nevada	59.6	5	0
New Hampshire	53.0	4	0
New Jersey	18.0	0	15
New Mexico	49.0	0	5
New York	8.6	0	31
North Carolina	76.0	15	0
North Dakota	97.0	3	0
Ohio	57.0	20	0
Oklahoma	97.0	7	0
Oregon	45.0	0	7
Pennsylvania	44.0	0	21
Rhode Island	6.0	0	4
South Carolina	91.0	8	0
South Dakota	95.0	3	0
Tennessee	87.0	11	0
Texas	96.0	34	0
Utah	96.0	5	0
Vermont	6.0	0	3
Virginia	81.0	13	0
Washington	27.0	0	11
West Virginia	55.0	5	0
Wisconsin	42.0	0	10
Wyoming	96.0	3	0
Totals		278	260

[NittanyLion]

New Jersey, for example: a few weeks ago, there was a flurry of stories on FR about how the Kerry campaign is spending serious money in New Jersey because Bush is gaining ground there. This is the state that gave us the Torch-Lout switch, and Bush is storming the place.

NJ felt the impact of 9/11 as much as any state. That is what's changed the dynamic there, although I believe it will ultimately go for Kerry anyway.

I think you need to throw out much of the conventional political wisdom this year, and prepare for a Bush landslide: despite the prevalent pessimism here, Bush is going to win re-election, and he'll do it by solid margins in every state. I'm not saying we're looking at a 1972 or 1984 here, but it'll be a margin of victory such that Kerry won't be able to contest the results ala Al Gore.

I agree that the election will end up being won by a comfortable margin one way or the other. And based on the economy and Iraq, it seems likely the tide will turn in favor of Bush.

[edwin hubble]

A note:
The futures market now has the race exactly as it went in 2000.

It's now about the same at the other two futures markets:

Iowa Markets http://www.biz.uiowa.edu/iem/

Irish web futures market site
http://www.intrade.com

[Coop]

I didn't compare state by state, but 278-260 is the exact finish of the 2000 election - after revising for the +7 Bush reapportionment of electoral votes.

[Momaw Nadon]

Intrade.com uses the same data as TradeSports.com.

[Coop]

Yep, I went back to look. This projected finish is exactly as 2000 finished. How boring.

Kerry has legitimate shots at FL, OH, WV and NH right now. However, Dubya has legitimate shots at NM, WI, MN, PA, IA, MI, OR and maybe even WA or NJ.

[Fred S]

No, no, no, he's right, the Republican wave is coming. We're silent, but waiting to strike. We keep to ourselves and laugh on the inside whenever some liberal kook goes off on his/her crazy conspiracy theory or raves about F911. Yeah, keep talking LA. We'll see.

Wouldn't that be amazing for Bush to get CA?!? That would be a huge slap to Kerry and the DemoRATs.

And besides, I'm voting too. 13.2%? Come on, it's at least 15%!

[Missouri]

Looks like 2000 all over again.

I do believe that Florida will not be as close as in 2000 thus the democrats will have little to complain about.

Also if the economy picks up a little more in the Midwest, GWB may carry a state or two more there than in 2000.

Maybe New Mexico, too.

[Missouri]

I didn't compare state by state

Exactly the same.

[Salvation]

Thanks for doing this. I've been wanting to see something like this. Could we do it weekly? Or bi-weekly?

[Salvation]

I guess you have been doing it weekly, and I just missed it. LOL!

[reformedliberal]

This Wisconsinite thinks Finegold's populism is in name only. He is MIA out here in the rural areas, sending an aide for the Town Meetings and Listening Sessions. Letters are the only way to communicate w/him and on various issues, I have spent the time to write a reasoned response to some press release of Russ' only to receive back a copy of the exact same press release in reply.

What keeps Finegold in office is the lack of negatives. He appears to be clean. But even Kohl, who spends his time in Jackson Hole, WY, seems destined to be Senator For Life, based on his Milwaukee and Green Bay/Sheboygan constituency.

It remains to be seen if Russ Darrow can oust Russ Finegold. I'd give it a qualified maybe.

However, the polls and my personal experience do seem to bode well, so far, for W.

[COBOL2Java]

If Bush wins in a landslide Michael Moore will lock himself away with a stockpile of junk food and will only emerge with the jaws of life on his doorjamb and a forklift assist.

[AmishDude]

That's the problem with this analysis. These traders don't have any more information than the rest of us and tend to sway with conventional wisdom.

[Key West Girl]

This is very interesting. I see from the posts that the projections were on point for 2000. Would you put me on your list? I'd like to keep an eye on it.

[Momaw Nadon]

You are on the ping list now.

[Alas Babylon!]

Exactly. And the conventional wisdom is that Bush won't lose the stats he won in 2000, but won't pick up any new ones.. Whether Kerry can keep the states Algore won remains to be seen, but no one is betting he'll take any 2000 "Red" states. No real gamblers here.

[I-53]

My son was a college student at a conservative tech school in a solidly conservative state during the last Presidential election. He requested a Wisconsin absentee ballot well in advance, and it did not arrive in time for the election. In fact, it finally arrived about a half-year later.

[AmishDude]

Looking at the map, Kerry has a shot at NH, OH, WV, AZ, NV and that's it among Bush's states from 2000. Bush has a shot at PA, MI, IA, MN, NM, OR, WI and possibly more but that case would be a landslide. I think WV and AZ are out of reach for the Dems. Kerry needs to take OH or both of NH and NV.

Now that I look at it, the whole election comes down to Ohio. Kerry needs to hold on to almost every Gore state and take Ohio. That's pretty much necessary and sufficient for a Kerry win.

[mware]

New Jersey, for example: a few weeks ago, there was a flurry of stories on FR about how the Kerry campaign is spending serious money in New Jersey because Bush is gaining ground there.

Keep in mind the McGreedy factor. He just signed a budget in the dark of night that is going to tax the hell out of those of us living in NJ.

[reformedliberal]

Perhaps your township/precinct is one of the problematic ones?

We used to have a timeshare that we visited every year from Nov1-14. We would request our absentee ballot by phone from the town clerk. When it came, we simply voted/signed the paperwork/had someone witness then deliver it to the clerk who would again certify it. Never had a problem at all.

Now: I live in a tiny rural township where the clerk and the election workers know everyone and we have no real problems.
When the results are published in the local weekly, we can pretty much see if our vote counted by how many votes are tabulated.

If you think there may be a problem w/your township/precinct, I suggest you call it to the attention of the State Republican Party and hopefully, they will make sure someone checks out the procedure beforehand. IIRC, we could request the absentees in September. Also, you may want to contact the Bush-Cheney04 campaign, get the name of your regional political director and get advice from them.

We are very well organized for GOTV and poll watching this year.