Electoral College Breakdown 2004, June 23rd Update

I Wouldn't Touch It With a 10 Foot Poll

Issues

Let's look at some recent polls that asked issue questions beyond the horserace question. There have been three that I have chosen due to them being relatively similar in timeframe and having many similarly worded questions.

Horserace
Poll	Date	Universe	Bush	Kerry
ABC News / Washington Post	6/17-20	1,105 RV for Horserace, 600 adults for issues	44	48
Time / CNN / Harris Interactive	6/12-13	563 RV for Horserace, 1,001 adults for issues	49	42
Fox News / Opinion Dynamics	6/8-9	900 RV	42	42

I think it is safe to say that these results are all comparable. One is favorable in result to Kerry, one is favorable in result to Bush, and one has them tied. There are plenty of actual support levels for the candidates that would have all three polls being within their margin of error (for example, if really the race is 44-44). How do these polls compare on the issue questions?

Terrorism
Poll	Phrasing	Bush	Kerry
ABC News / Washington Post	Who do you trust to do a better job handling the U.S. campaign against terrorism?	47	48
Time / CNN / Harris Interactive	Which candidate do you think would do a better job on each of the following issues? Handling the war on terrorism?	49	42
Fox News / Opinion Dynamics	Which candidate do you think would do a better job on the following issues: The war on terrorism?	47	32

The three polls show remarkably similar numbers for Bush, but Kerry's numbers vary considerably. It is possible this difference can be attributed to the phrasings, although the wording does not make that seem likely. A possibility is that there is a significant number of voters who are not sure and do not have a good feeling for where Kerry is on the issue, and some days they think he would be good and on other days they are less convinced. Another is that it is simply a result of sample differences (although the fact that the widest gap here is in the poll that shows the race tied suggests that is not the case).

Iraq
Poll	Phrasing	Bush	Kerry
ABC News / Washington Post	Who do you trust to do a better job handling the situation in Iraq?	50	45
Time / CNN / Harris Interactive	Which candidate do you think would do a better job on each of the following issues? Handling the situation in Iraq?	43	46
Fox News / Opinion Dynamics	Which candidate do you think would do a better job on the following issues: The situation in Iraq?	43	39

Again, the Opinion Dynamics poll has fewer committing which does suggest they were not pushing as hard for noncommittal respondents to choose. It is harder to see any discernable pattern from these answers either. The poll most favorable in the horserace to Kerry gave Bush the biggest margin on this question, and the poll that was most favorable to Bush on the horserace gave Kerry the biggest margin on this question. This suggests to me that while Iraq dominates the news and clearly is the issue many partisans have rallied around, it is not the issue that is driving the election.

Economy
Poll	Phrasing	Bush	Kerry
ABC News / Washington Post	Who do you trust to do a better job handling the economy?	45	50
Time / CNN / Harris Interactive	Which candidate do you think would do a better job on each of the following issues? Handling the economy?	38	51
Fox News / Opinion Dynamics	Which candidate do you think would do a better job on the following issues: The economy?	41	44

Each favors Kerry, which suggests that the reason he is doing so well against the incumbent is that this issue is still working in his favor. Again the worst result for the President was in the poll that showed the best horserace result for him, which is unusual.

Taxes
Poll	Phrasing	Bush	Kerry
ABC News / Washington Post	Who do you trust to do a better job handling taxes?	40	53
Time / CNN / Harris Interactive	Which candidate do you think would do a better job on each of the following issues? Taxes?	41	47
Fox News / Opinion Dynamics	Which candidate do you think would do a better job on the following issues: Taxes?	41	41

As with the terrorism question, Bush's numbers are steady, while Kerry's are fluctuating. This is normally an issue that Republicans win; the fact that Bush is not is interesting (and troubling for the President's supporters), but so is the fact that Kerry is not winning handily while having the advantage here.

Foreign Policy
Poll	Phrasing	Bush	Kerry
ABC News / Washington Post	Who do you trust to do a better job handling international affairs?	43	51
Time / CNN / Harris Interactive	Which candidate do you think would do a better job on each of the following issues? Handling foreign policy?	44	46
Fox News / Opinion Dynamics	Which candidate do you think would do a better job on the following issues: Foreign Policy?	45	40

Yet again, Bush's numbers are steady while Kerry's fluctuate in a manner that does not correlate completely with his standing in the horserace question.

Health Care
Poll	Phrasing	Bush	Kerry
ABC News / Washington Post	Who do you trust to do a better job handling international affairs?	37	58
Time / CNN / Harris Interactive	Which candidate do you think would do a better job on each of the following issues? Health care?	33	52
Fox News / Opinion Dynamics	Which candidate do you think would do a better job on the following issues: Foreign Policy?	34	48

Again, Bush's numbers are steady while Kerry's flip-flop.

The pattern should be clear that all of these polls show basically the same result for Bush:

Bush
Poll	Will vote for	Prefer on terror	Prefer on Iraq	Prefer on economy	Prefer on taxes	Prefer on foreign policy	Prefer on health care
ABC News / Washington Post	44	47	50	45	40	43	37
Time / CNN / Harris Interactive	49	49	43	38	41	44	33
Fox News / Opinion Dynamics	42	47	43	41	41	45	34

The table for Kerry is more interesting:

Kerry
Poll	Will vote for	Prefer on terror	Prefer on Iraq	Prefer on economy	Prefer on taxes	Prefer on foreign policy	Prefer on health care
ABC News / Washington Post	48	48	45	50	53	51	58
Time / CNN / Harris Interactive	42	42	46	51	47	46	52
Fox News / Opinion Dynamics	42	32	39	44	41	40	48

There are several possible interpretations to make from this data.

1. There has been a trend towards Kerry on the issues over time. This assumes that the samples are comparable. Favoring this interpretation is that on most issues, Kerry's support has increased from the earliest poll to the latest. A problem with this interpretation is that the horserace question has not shown the same change. Another is that during this timeframe, Rasmussen has polled on the economy question and found no such trend. However, if this interpretation were correct, then it would suggest that Kerry's advertising has been paying off in the underlying sentiment and makes it likely that he will see movement towards him in the horserace question relatively soon.

2. Terrorism is the main issue. This assumes that the differences in the results (especially for Kerry) are primarily due to sample differences and/or methodology differences. Opinion Dynamics asked the issue question only of registered voters while the other two asked it of all adults. In addition, consistently for the Opinion Dynamics poll fewer respondents expressed a preference, suggesting that they pressed people to make a choice less than the other two. Favoring this interpretation is that the correlation to the horserace number is much higher for the terrorism answer than for any other across all three polls.

Issue	Correlation to candidate's horserace support
Terrorism	0.61
Iraq	0.10
Economy	-0.20
Taxes	0.33
Foreign Policy	0.47
Health Care	-0.1

The correlation coefficient ranges from 1 to -1, with a perfect correlation getting a value of 1, no correlation a value of 0, and a perfect inverse correlation a value of -1.

A problem with this interpretation is that the two polls that had the same methodology (but possibly had sample differences) were the two that had the most markedly different horserace results. However, if this interpretation is correct, it would suggest that the primary issue influence on the election is the issue that most favors the President. Working against this interpretation is that earlier polls done this year did not show the same correlations; Bush had substantial leads on the terrorism question but did not have similar leads in the horserace.

3. On the issues, it is all about Kerry. This interpretation suggests that since voter preference for Bush is pretty steady across the three polls, the real variable is how comfortable the voters are with Kerry. Favoring this interpretation is the fact that since voters know less about Kerry than they do about Bush, his preference numbers would be more volatile, which fits the data. This could also explain why, despite having advantages on so many issues, he only leads in a poll that had 8% more Democrats; if voters think they prefer him on the issues but are not sure, they may be hesitating to get on board for the horserace question. Working against this interpretation is the conventional wisdom that Presidential re-election campaigns are referendums of the incumbent.

There could be other interpretations. However, it is still possible to form recommendations for what each candidate should do to enhance his chances if any or all of these interpretations have validity. Each candidate needs to continue to work on defining Kerry before the other defines Kerry; at this point it appears that Kerry is at worst holding his own in this regard and at best winning it but either way it is clear that he is still not in complete focus for many voters. On terrorism, Bush needs to make the case that it is the primary issue, that he has handled it well, and that Kerry cannot be trusted. Kerry's goals on the subject are the opposite. He should stress other issues since he has (currently) an advantage on them, while taking advantage of opportunities to encourage voter doubt about Bush's handling of terrorism to keep that from becoming the dominant issue in the campaign. But more than anything else, the President has to figure out a way to get off the defensive. He can make arguments that things are better than people are perceiving when it comes to the economy and Iraq and other things, but that still would only be focusing voters on matters on which they have demonstrated skepticism and would be opening himself up to constant counterattacks and spin. He needs to come up with bold plans for his next term and sell the voters on them, to neutralize Kerry's developing advantage on the issues.

This Week's Polling Updates Overview

State	2000 Result	Media Battleground	Current Status
New Jersey	Gore +16	No	Kerry, Lean
Iowa	Gore +0.3	Yes	Kerry, Lean
Michigan	Gore +5	Yes	Kerry, Slight
Oregon	Gore +0.4	Yes	Kerry, Slight
New Hampshire	Bush +1	Yes	Kerry, Slight
Minnesota	Gore +2	Yes	Kerry, Slight
Pennsylvania	Gore +4	Yes	Kerry, Slight
West Virginia	Bush +6	Yes	Kerry, Slight
Wisconsin	Gore +0.2	Yes	Tossup
New Mexico	Gore +0.06	Yes	Tossup
Ohio	Bush +4	Yes	Tossup
Florida	Bush +0.01	Yes	Bush, Slight
Arkansas	Bush +5	Yes	Bush, Slight
Virginia	Bush +8	No	Bush, Slight
Nevada	Bush +4	Yes	Bush, Lean
Arizona	Bush +6	Yes	Bush, Lean
Missouri	Bush +3	Yes	Bush, Lean

	New Hampshire
Electoral Votes: 4
2000 Result
Bush 48%
Gore 47%

Background: Clinton won twice here, and the second time would have been even without Perot. The first time, he likely would have lost. Johnson won here. Other than that, Republican wins back through Dewey beating Truman. The elder Bush crushed the man who Kerry was Lt. Governor for, Mike Dukakis.

Both last time and this time, New Hampshire started as a slight advantage for Bush. When looking at the other offices, it is hard to understand just why this state is not more firmly in his control. The Republicans hold all the House seats, both Senate seats, control both chambers of the state legislature, and hold all major executive branch offices, while having a 37%-26% registration advantage.

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican	Democrat	Margin
4/27/03	Franklin Pierce College	Link	600 RV	4%	Bush	42%	Unnamed Democrat	42%	Even
9/11/03	American Research Group	Link	RV	4%	Bush	50%	Unnamed Democrat	36%	Bush +14
10/16/03	Research 2000	Link	RV	4%	Bush	51%	Kerry	39%	Bush +12
12/10/03	American Research Group	NA	RV	4%	Bush	50%	Unnamed Democrat	38%	Bush +12
10/16/03	Research 2000	Link	RV	4%	Bush	51%	Kerry	39%	Bush +12
1/20/04	Associated Press	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	55%	Kerry	40%	Bush +15
2/20/04	University of New Hampshire	Link	511 LV	4%	Bush	38%	Kerry	53%	Kerry +15
3/18/04	American Research Group	Link	463 RV, Nader an option	4.6%	Bush	45%	Kerry	39%	Bush +6
3/18/04	American Research Group	Link	463 RV, Nader not an option	4.6%	Bush	47%	Kerry	45%	Bush +2
4/1/04	American Research Group	Link	600 LV, Nader an option	4%	Bush	48%	Kerry	43%	Bush +5
4/1/04	American Research Group	Link	600 LV, Nader an option	4%	Bush	48%	Kerry	45%	Bush +3
4/22/04	Rasmussen	Link	500 LV	4.5%	Bush	45%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +2
4/26/04	University of New Hampshire	Link	491 LV	4.4%	Bush	45%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +4
5/24/04	Zogby Interactive*	Link	LV	4.3%	Bush	39.9%	Kerry	49.5%	Kerry +9.6
6/6/04	Zogby Interactive*	Link	LV	4.4%	Bush	44.4%	Kerry	48.7%	Kerry +4.3
6/9/04	American Research Group	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	46%	Kerry	46%	Push
6/21/04	Zogby Interactive*	Link	LV	4.4%	Bush	42.9%	Kerry	46.2%	Bush +3.3%

Punditry: The new poll says Tossup, but it is a step backwards for Bush in an apples to apples comparison to the previous ARG poll, and as such I maintain New Hampshire as having a Slight Advantage for Kerry. ARG did not give a breakdown for the sans Nader question this time, but he already had negligible support so that is a non-issue to me.

When I look at New Hampshire, the previous three polls to the American Research Group poll I just added are a UNH poll showing Kerry leading (but within even a single span of the MoE-- remember to be outside the MoE it has to be a lead beyond two spans), a Rasmussen poll also showing Kerry leading (but well within a single span), and an earlier ARG poll showing Bush ahead.

So with the new ARG poll in, it would show two polls indicating a slight Kerry advantage and one showing a complete deadlock. That would cause me to think immediately "slight advantage for Kerry". Throw in on top of it that previously ARG had Bush up slightly and now has it tied, which means that they are showing a small (perhaps insignificant, perhaps not) move towards Kerry, and that is another indication to me that the slight advantage Kerry designation is the way to go.

But I do want to make things clear on one thing-- when it comes to the difference between the two slight advantage designations and the tossup designation, I do not personally see them as being different in a meaningful sense. It is my belief that all three of these designations mean that the state has a 50% chance of going to either candidate. This is based off of a review of how those designations played out in the 2000 election.

	Illinois
Electoral Votes: 21
2000 Result
Gore 55%
Bush 42%

Background: Before Clinton broke through, Republicans had won six straight Presidential contests in Illinois. But Clinton's win against Bush was not because of Perot; he would have carried it without him in the race. And Gore flat out spanked Bush here.

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican	Democrat	Margin
6/9/03	Chicago Tribune	NA	RV	3.8%	Bush	38%	Unnamed Democrat	36%	Bush +2
10/20/03	Chicago Tribune	NA	700 RV	3.8%	Bush	38%	Unnamed Democrat	49%	Dem +11
1/9/04	Chicago Tribune	Link	RV	3.8%	Bush	40%	Unnamed Democrat	48%	Dem +8
3/3/04	Research 2000	Link	500 LV	5%	Bush	36%	Kerry	54%	Kerry +18
3/3/04	Rasmussen	Link	1500 LV	3%	Bush	39%	Kerry	52%	Kerry +15
3/13/04	Copley News Service/Mason-Dixon	Link	625 LV	4%	Bush	39%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +8
5/12/04	Rasmussen	Link	500 LV	4.5%	Bush	43%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +5
5/24/04	Market Shares Corp.	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	38%	Kerry	54%	Kerry +16
5/31/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	4%	Bush	38%	Kerry	54%	Kerry +16
6/9/04	SurveyUSA	Link	742 LV	4%	Bush	39%	Kerry	52%	Kerry +13

Punditry: Still Strong Advantage for Kerry. I am surprised by the Senate portion of this poll which shows Jack Ryan within 11 points of Obama, which is much closer for him than I would have anticipated at this stage of the race. Illinois is another state where more of Kerry's support is anti-Bush (61%) than for him (38%) and again by almost a 2-1 ratio. As I have pointed out several times, this is normally an indication of trouble for a candidate as the only two candidates in recent elections to have more of their support come from those against their opponent were Michael Dukakis and Bob Dole. Given that this was a media-sponsored poll, I am surprised that question was asked at all.

	Pennsylvania
Electoral Votes: 21
2000 Result
Gore 51%
Bush 46%

Background: Democrats have won this state 6 of the last 10 elections, with the first of Clinton's wins being attributable to Ross Perot being on the ballot (19%). Typically, the races in the Keystone state have been close. Pennsylvania started as leaning Bush last time, but has drifted to where it has a slight advantage for the Democrats. Republicans hold a 12-7 advantage in the numbers of Representatives, and hold both Senate seats. They also hold both chambers of the state legislature. The Democrats hold the major executive branch positions except for Attorney General, and have a significant registration advantage (48%-42%).

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican	Democrat	Margin
5/13/03	Quinnipiac	Link	952 RV	3.2%	Bush	56%	Kerry	34%	Bush +22
10/9/03	Quinnipiac	Link	1,116 RV	3%	Bush	50%	Kerry	43%	Bush +7
11/23/03	Muhlenberg College	Link	430 RV	4.7%	Bush	47%	Kerry	40%	Bush +7
12/14/03	Quinnipiac	Link	1,092 RV	3%	Bush	50%	Kerry	42%	Bush +8
2/18/04	Quinnipiac	Ling	1,356 RV	2.7%	Bush	45%	Kerry	50%	Dem +5
2/22/04	Keystone Poll	Link	392 RV	4.9%	Bush	46%	Kerry	47%	Dem +1
3/?/04	Muhlenberg College	Link	RV	?%	Bush	?%	Kerry	?%	Push
3/3/04	Pennsylvania Public Mind	Link	1750 Adults	2.4%	Bush	45%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +2
3/11/04	Survey USA	Link	802 RV	3.5%	Bush	47%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +2
3/15/04	Qunnipiac	Link	1,022 RV (Nader not given as an option)	3	Bush	44%	Kerry	45%	Kerry +1
3/15/04	Qunnipiac	Link	1,022 RV (Nader given as an option)	3%	Bush	44%	Kerry	40%	Bush +4
3/16/04	Rasmussen	Link	500 LV	4.5%	Bush	44%	Kerry	45%	Kerry +1
3/29/04	Keystone Poll	Link	565 RV	4.1%	Bush	46%	Kerry	40%	Bush +6
4/19/04	Quinnipiac	Link	769 RV, Nader not an option	3.5%	Bush	46%	Kerry	42%	Bush +4
4/19/04	Quinnipiac	Link	769 RV, Nader an option	3.5%	Bush	45%	Kerry	39%	Bush +6
4/25/04	Pew Research	Link	867 RV	4%	Bush	42%	Kerry	42%	Push
5/3/04	Bennett, Petts, And Blumenthal (D)	Link	LV	4%	Bush	43%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +6
5/7/04	Susquehanna Polling (R)	Link	650 LV	4%	Bush	46%	Kerry	44%	Bush +2
5/14/04	Muhlenberg College	Link	400 RV	5%	Bush	43%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +5
5/24/04	Zogby Interactive*	Link	LV	3%	Bush	42.6%	Kerry	50.8%	Kerry +8.2
5/25/04	Quinnipiac	Link	701 LV	4%	Bush	41%	Kerry	44%	Kerry +3
5/31/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	45%	Kerry	44%	Bush +1
6/6/04	Zogby Interactive*	Link	LV	3.6%	Bush	44.9%	Kerry	51.5%	Kerry +5.6
6/9/04	SurveyUSA	Link	684 LV	4%	Bush	46%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +1
6/21/04	Zogby Interactive*	Link	LV	3.4%	Bush	44.7%	Kerry	51.7%	Kerry +4.0%

Punditry: Last time, I wrote "Sometimes Bush is coming out ahead, sometimes Kerry is coming out ahead. That sounds just like a Tossup to me." Some things don't change. Pennsylvania is yet another state where by nearly a 2-1 margin, Kerry's support is more against Bush than for him.

	F		Florida
Electoral Votes: 27
2000 Result
Bush 48.85%
Gore 48.84%

Background: Despite the best efforts of the results-oriented Florida Supreme Court, Bush held on to win the state in 2000, just as every recount conducted afterwards validated. Did you know that since 1948, though, that only three times has Florida gone for the Democrat candidate? Johnson got 51%, Carter got 52%, and Clinton (2nd term) got 48% (with Perot taking 9%). More times than not, the Republican has come closer to 60%. Why Bush underperformed here to such a degree is something his campaign must rectify.

In the first ECB of 2000, Florida was listed as a battleground with a slight advantage to Gore. This time around, it is starting with a slight advantage for Bush. Florida has 6 Democrat Representatives and 18 Republicans. Both chambers of the state legislature are controlled by the Republicans. Republicans control most of the executive branch. However, both Senate seats are held by Democrats. As of Dec. 1, 2003, the state registration was 41.9% Democrat and 38.6% Republican.

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican	Democrat	Margin
4/29/03	Mason-Dixon	Link	RV	5%	Bush	53%	Unnamed Democrat	38%	Bush +15
12/3/03	Schroth & Associates	Link	800 RV	3.5%	Bush	43%	Unnamed Democrat	37%	Bush +6
1/15/04	Rasmussen Reports	Link	LV	5%	Bush	47%	Unnamed Democrat	45%	Bush +2
2/27/04	Research 2000	Link	500 LV	4%	Bush	47%	Kerry	42%	Bush +5
3/4/04	American Research Group	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	44%	Kerry	45%	Kerry +1
3/4/04	Schroth & Associates	Link	800 RV	3.5%	Bush	43%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +6
3/14/04	Rasmussen	Link	400 LV	5%	Bush	45%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +3
4/1/04	Mason-Dixon	Link	625 RV	4%	Bush	51%	Kerry	43%	Bush +8
4/13/04	Rasmussen Reports	Link	500 LV	5%	Bush	46%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +1
4/21/04	American Research Group	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	46%	Kerry	45%	Bush +1
5/9/04	Hamilton, Beattie and Staff (D)	Link	1000 LV	3%	Bush	47%	Kerry	50%	Kerry +3
5/19/04	American Research Group	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	47%	Kerry	46%	Bush +1
5/24/04	Zogby Interactive*	Link	LV	3.4%	Bush	47.6%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +1.4
5/31/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	4%	Bush	46%	Kerry	46%	Push
6/6/04	Zogby Interactive*	Link	LV	2.9%	Bush	47.9%	Kerry	49.5%	Kerry +1.6
6/14/04	SurveyUSA	Link	723 LV	4%	Bush	50%	Kerry	43%	Bush +7
6/21/04	Zogby Interactive*	Link	LV	2.6%	Bush	50.3%	Kerry	46.1%	Bush +4.2%

Punditry: If SurveyUSA is correct, then Bush has opened things up a tad in Florida. This would be the first evidence I have seen, and as such I will make the cautious redesignation as Slight Advantage for Bush rather than the "Leaning" designation which a 7 point lead would normally merit (especially when one candidate is at 50%).

As has been SurveyUSA's tendency of late, they asked if a candidate's supporters are "for" that candidate or "against" the other. Over 80% of Bush's support is for him, while less than 40% of Kerry's is for him. What happens to the "anti-Bush" voters after the convention will probably decide this election.

	F		Maryland
Electoral Votes: 10
2000 Result
Gore 57%
Bush 40%

Background: Since the 1960 election, the only Republicans to carry Maryland were Nixon for his re-elect, Reagan for his re-elect, and George H. W. Bush during his first campaign. Clinton did not need Perot to win here either time. This is a Democrat state.

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican	Democrat	Margin
1/12/04	Potomac, Inc	Link	1,200 LV	2.8%	Bush	41%	Unnamed Democrat	51%	Dem +10
2/8/04	Gonzalez	Link	818 RV	3.5%	Bush	40%	Kerry	51%	Kerry +11
2/27/04	Mason-Dixon	Link	625 LV	4%	Bush	38%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +9
3/24/04	Gonzales Research and Marketing	Link	825 LV	4%	Bush	43%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +5
6/9/04	Gonzales Research and Marketing	Link	LV	4%	Bush	38%	Kerry	52%	Kerry +14

Punditry: This is more what I expected from Maryland. Strong Advantage for Kerry. The lack of details in the poll writeup precludes any detailed analysis.

	F		New York
Electoral Votes: 31
2000 Result
Gore 60%
Bush 35%

Background: From 1960 onward, Republicans have carried the Empire State only three times. Nixon beat McGovern, Reagan beat Carter, and Reagan beat Mondale. Even Dukakis won here.

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican	Democrat	Margin
4/03	Marist	Link	RV	4%	Bush	32%	Unnamed Democrat	39%	Dem +7
9/23/03	Marist	Link	RV	4%	Bush	32%	Unnamed Democrat	48%	Dem +16
10/28/03	Quinnipiac	NA	RV	4%	Bush	42%	Kerry	50%	Dem +8
11/19/03	Zogby	Link	LV	4%	Bush	41%	Kerry	46%	Dem +5
1/7/04	Marist	Link	617 RV	4%	Bush	34%	Unnamed Democrat	36%	Dem +2
4/12/04	Quinnipiac	Link	1,279 RV, Nader an option	2.7%	Bush	35%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +14
4/12/04	Quinnipiac	Link	1,279 RV, Nader not an option	2.7%	Bush	36%	Kerry	53%	Kerry +17
4/15/04	Marist	Link	602 RV	4%	Bush	38%	Kerry	56%	Kerry +18
4/22/04	Siena Researh Institute	Link	625 RV	3.9%	Bush	32%	Kerry	51%	Kerry +19
5/31/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	3%	Bush	34%	Kerry	57%	Kerry +23
6/14/04	Quinnipiac	Link	1,466 RV	3%	Bush	34%	Kerry	52%	Kerry +18

Punditry: Most of the other polls besides Rasmussen had the race being right near where the Quinnipiac poll has it, which is in the Strong Advantage for Kerry column, suggesting that I moved it to Safe too quickly.

But in the grand scheme of things, does the difference between the two designations make a difference for New York at this point? If NY is to become competitive, the race will long be over.

Bush has an impossible task in trying to woo voters in a state where 49% of Republicans approve of the job Chuck Schumer is doing.

	Rhode Island
Electoral Votes: 4
2000 Result
Gore 61%
Bush 32%

Background: Nine of the last eleven times, Rhode Island has gone for the Democrat. The two exceptions? When Republican Presidents that the state rejected originally ran for re-election (Reagan and Nixon).

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican	Democrat	Margin
2/7/04	Brown University	NA	RV	4.6%	Bush	31%	Unnamed Democrat	53%	Dem +22
6/14/04	Brown University	Link	477 RV	5%	Bush	25%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +24

Punditry: We can all sleep better now that Rhode Island has been polled again. Safe for Kerry.

	F		West Virginia
Electoral Votes: 5
2000 Result
Bush 52%
Gore 46%

Background: It was a huge change from the past when Bush beat Gore here in 2000. Over the last eighteen elections, the Democrats have won 14, and both of Clinton's wins would almost certainly have come even without Ross Perot. This is not a state the Democrats should have lost.

In the first ECB of 2000, West Virginia was rated as a battleground state with a slight advantage to Bush. This time around, it is starting as a complete tossup. Two of West Virginia's three Representatives are Democrats. Democrats control everything else: both Senate seats, both chambers of the state legislature, and the top executive branch offices. It is easy to see why, when 60% of the registered voters are Democrats and just 29% Republican.

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican	Democrat	Margin
3/24/04	American Research Group	Link	600 LV, Nader not an option	4%	Bush	47%	Kerry	46%	Bush +1
3/24/04	American Research Group	Link	600 LV, Nader an option	4%	Bush	46%	Kerry	46%	Push
4/15/04	Rasmussen	Link	500 LV	4.5%	Bush	46%	Kerry	41%	Bush +5
4/29/04	Ipsos Public Affairs	Link	984 RV	3%	Bush	49%	Kerry	45%	Bush +4
5/24/04	Zogby Interactive*	Link	LV	4.4%	Bush	48.3%	Kerry	45.9%	Bush +2.4
5/28/04	Mason-Dixon**	Link	625 LV	4%	Bush	41%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +6
6/6/04	Zogby Interactive*	Link	LV	4.4%	Bush	43.5%	Kerry	46.6%	Kerry +2.9
6/17/04	American Research Group	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	44%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +3
6/21/04	Zogby Interactive*	Link	LV	4.5%	Bush	49.1%	Kerry	43.1%	Bush +6.0%

	Arizona
Electoral Votes: 10
2000 Result
Bush 51%
Gore 45%

Background: Since Harry Truman, only Bill Clinton (during his re-elect) has carried the Grand Canyon State for the Democrats. Clinton also made it close with the help of Perot in 1992. Other than that, things have been surprisingly one-sided. Arizona has 6 of 8 of its Representatives and both of its Senators from the GOP. The GOP also controls both chambers of the state legislature. The top of the executive branch is run by Democrats, with Janet Napolitano being a first term Governor and Terry Goddard being the Attorney General. Most other top executive offices are held by Republicans. Republicans have a 41% to 35% lead in voter registration.

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican	Democrat	Margin
7/18/03	Behavior Research Center	Link	701 Adults	4.3%	Bush	55%	Unnamed Opponent	41%	Bush +14
1/11/04	Behavior Research Center	Link	641 Adults	3.9%	Bush	50%	Highest Ranking Democrat (Dean)	38%	Bush +12
2/19/04	SurveyUSA	Link	RV	4.3%	Bush	52%	Kerry	44%	Bush +8
2/22/04	Arizona State University	Link	430 RV	4%	Bush	44%	Kerry	46%	Dem +2
3/18/04	Survey USA	Link	634 LV	4.0%	Bush	51%	Kerry	42%	Bush +9
4/26/04	Arizona State University	Link	410 RV	5%	Bush	41%	Kerry	38%	Bush +3
5/4/04	Behavior Research Center	Link	555 RV, Nader not an option	4%	Bush	46%	Kerry	42%	Bush +4
5/4/04	Behavior Research Center	Link	555 RV, Nader an option	4%	Bush	45%	Kerry	37%	Bush +8
5/23/04	Arizona State University	Link	377 RV	5%	Bush	43%	Kerry	38%	Bush +5
6/13/04	Market Solutions	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	44%	Kerry	41%	Bush +3

Punditry: A bit tighter in Arizona than the President's campaign would like, I am sure. There are some strange internals in this poll. Bush has a 90% approval rating among Republicans, which is about what is seen in other states. But 12% of Republicans, according to this poll, will vote for Kerry. Bush does incredibly poorly among independents, getting just 28% from them (with 27% either undecided or voting for a third party). Bush does get 14% of the Democrats. Taken together with the fact that overall the poll has 11% undecideds, it shows that within party, both Bush and Kerry are getting only 80% or less of their own; this seems extremely low to me.

The result is also tighter than the last handful of polls here. If the next one shows the state this close it will move into the slight advantage category, but for now I am keeping it as Leaning Towards Bush.

	Washington
Electoral Votes: 11
2000 Result
Gore 50%
Bush 45%

Background: The Democrats have won the last four, and 6 of the last 10, with all four Republican wins coming consecutively (Nixon, Ford, ReaganX2). It is unclear as to if Clinton would have won the first time here sans Perot; it would likely have been extremely close. The Dukakis/Bush race was very close. The Clinton/Dole race was not.

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican	Democrat	Margin
1/5/04	SurveyUSA	NA	975 RV	3%	Bush	48%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +1
2/4/04	SurveyUSA	Link	975 RV	3%	Bush	43%	Kerry	55%	Kerry +12
3/24/04	SurveyUSA	Link	698 LV	4%	Bush	43%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +4
3/25/04	Rasmussen	Link	500 LV	5%	Bush	44%	Kerry	50%	Kerry +6
4/5/04	The Elway Poll	NA	LV	5%	Bush	41%	Kerry	46%	Kerry +5
4/18/04	Moore Information (R)	Link	500 RV	4%	Bush	41%	Kerry	45%	Kerry +4
5/24/04	Zogby Interactive*	Link	LV	4.3%	Bush	44.4%	Kerry	52.5%	Kerry +8.1
6/4/04	SurveyUSA	Link	654 LV	4%	Bush	44%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +5
6/6/04	Zogby Interactive*	Link	LV	2.3%	Bush	44.4%	Kerry	51.7%	Kerry +7.3
6/11/04	Moore Information (R)	Link	500 RV	4%	Bush	44%	Kerry	45%	Kerry +1
6/11/04	Mason-Dixon**	Link	625 LV	4%	Bush	42%	Kerry	46%	Kerry +4
6/21/04	Zogby Interactive*	Link	LV	2.8%	Bush	45.2%	Kerry	51.6%	Kerry +6.4%

** Done for a 'private public policy client'. Punditry: The newest Mason-Dixon poll is a partisan poll-- we just do not know for which side. It was done at the behest of an unidentified PAC. It shows what most polls in Washington have shown so far-- Kerry leading by a handful of points, right around one span of the Margin of Error. Leaning Towards Kerry.

	North Carolina
Electoral Votes: 15
2000 Result
Bush 56%
Gore 43%

Background: Since Lyndon Johnson's win here, only once have the Democrats taken Tar Heel electors. That's a bit deceptive, however, as many times it was extremely close. Carter lost to Reagan here by only two points in that nationwide blowout. Clinton lost two elections by a combined total of 5%. Yet the Clinton losses are also deceptive, in that the margins would have been considerably larger without Perot and his charts. Simply stated, like much of the south North Carolina votes Republican for President, although a southerner atop the ticket can make things interesting; not always though, as Al Gore demonstrated.

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican	Democrat	Margin
9/16/03	Research2000	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	51%	Edwards	40%	Bush +11
11/15/03	Research2000	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	54%	Edwards	42%	Bush +12
11/25/03	Survey USA	Link	563 RV	4.2%	Bush	53%	Kerry	39%	Bush +14
11/25/03	Survey USA	Link	563 RV	4.2%	Bush	52%	Edwards	45%	Bush +7
2/26/04	Survey USA	Link	654 RV	3.9%	Bush	53%	Kerry	42%	Bush +11
3/11/04	Rasmussen	Link	400 LV	3%	Bush	51%	Kerry	43%	Bush +8
4/1/04	Bennett, Petts and Blumenthal (D)	No Link	LV	4%	Bush	51%	Kerry	44%	Bush +7
5/14/04	Mason-Dixon	Link	LV	4%	Bush	48%	Kerry	41%	Bush +7
5/31/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	48%	Kerry	44%	Bush +4
6/16/04	Research2000	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	47%	Kerry	42%	Bush +5

Punditry: The poll reinforces Rasmussen's previous result (and Rasmussen himself has just recently upgraded North Carolina in Bush's direction based on his more recent numbers). What strikes me as interesting is the comparison between this result and the previous Research2000 North Carolina poll conducted last November matching up Bush against Edwards. Edwards got 42%, which is exactly what Kerry gets now. The margin is smaller because many who had been for Bush are now undecided. This shows that the President is vulnerable here but that the Democrats do not have an easy sell. Leans Towards Bush.

	Tennessee
Electoral Votes: 11
2000 Result
Bush 51%
Gore 47%

Background: Carter against Ford, Clinton twice (both times needing help from Perot), and Johnson. Republicans generally have had success here since Truman.

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican	Democrat	Margin
12/8/03	Mason-Dixon	Link	LV	4%	Bush	52%	Unnamed Democrat	37%	Bush +15
1/29/04	Mason-Dixon	NA	LV	5%	Bush	47%	Kerry	43%	Bush +4
2/28/03	Middle Tennessee State University	Link	701 Voting Age Residents	4%	Bush	48%	Kerry	44%	Bush +4
3/22/04	Survey USA	Link	678 LV	3.9%	Bush	52%	Kerry	41%	Bush +11
5/24/04	Zogby Interactive*	Link	LV	3.0%	Bush	49.3%	Kerry	46.8%	Bush +2.5
6/6/04	Zogby Interactive*	Link	LV	3.7%	Bush	54.3%	Kerry	42.6%	Bush +11.7
6/16/04	Rasmussen	Link	500 LV	5%	Bush	49%	Kerry	41%	Bush +8
6/21/04	Zogby Interactive*	Link	LV	3.5%	Bush	57.4%	Kerry	38.6%	Bush +18.8%
6/21/04	SurveyUSA	Link	700 LV	4%	Bush	51%	Kerry	41%	Bush +10

Punditry: SurveyUSA's poll remains steady since March. Good news for Kerry-- of the states SurveyUSA has polled, Tennessee has the highest percentage of his supporters who are for him as opposed to against Bush (although that just may mean that even the Democrat base in Tennessee is not as rabidly anti-Bush as it is elsewhere). I am very close to redesignating Tennessee as strong for Bush. An earlier ECB article suggested that Gore's impact on the ticket in his homestate was on the order of 5-10%, which would be in line with current polls. Leaning Towards Bush.

	New Jersey
Electoral Votes: 15
2000 Result
Gore 56%
Bush 40%

Background: New Jersey used to be considered a Republican state. Those days have passed, although there are still some signs of life. In the last 10 Presidential elections it has gone 1-6-3 with the Republican wins coming in the middle, the last Clinton win and the Gore win were by such substantial margins that it is hard to avoid the feeling that New Jersey is trending leftward.

If New Jersey remains tight enough to stay in the battleground, it is a case of back to the future. ECB2000 started with it leaning Gore's way. The Democrats have 7 of 13 Representatives and both Senate seats, control both chambers of the state legislature, hold all of the important executive offices, and have a 25%-19% advantage in voter registration.

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican	Democrat	Margin
9/8/03	Rutgers	Link	802 Adults	3.5%	Bush	43%	Unnamed Democrat	35%	Bush +8
9/15/03	Fairleigh Dickinson University/Public Mind	Link	600 RV	4%	Bush	36%	Unnamed Democrat	29%	Bush +7
9/25/03	Quinnipiac	Link	RV	3.1%	Bush	48%	Kerry	43%	Bush +5
11/10/03	Quinnipiac	Link	1,027 RV	3.1%	Bush	46%	Kerry	43%	Bush +3
1/11/04	Fairleigh Dickinson University/Public Mind	Link	600 RV	4%	Bush	40%	Unnamed Democrat	32%	Bush +8
1/13/04	Rutgers	Link	823 RV	4.2%	Bush	41%	Unnamed Democrat	38%	Bush +3
4/10/04	Fairleigh Dickinson University/Public Mind	Link	802 RV, Nader not an option	3.5%	Bush	47%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +1
4/10/04	Fairleigh Dickinson University/Public Mind	Link	802 RV, Nader an option	3.5%	Bush	48%	Kerry	44%	Bush +4
4/20/04	Rasmussen	Link	500 LV	4.5%	Bush	39%	Kerry	51%	Kerry +12
5/4/04	Rutgers / Eagleton	Link	643 RV	4%	Bush	37%	Kerry	43%	Kerry +6
5/16/04	Quinnipiac	Link	1,129 RV, Nader not an option	2.9%	Bush	44%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +3
5/16/04	Quinnipiac	Link	1,129 RV, Nader an option	3%	Bush	43%	Kerry	46%	Kerry +3
5/31/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	39%	Kerry	51%	Kerry +12
6/20/04	Quinnipiac	Link	1,167 RV, Nader an option	3%	Bush	40%	Kerry	46%	Kerry +6

Punditry: Has the dream ended? Not quite-- the state still is polling in the competitive (but not overly so) category of Leaning Towards Kerry, which strikes me as about where it belongs. Bush is weaker among self-identified Republicans than he is in other states, with 12% of them saying they intend to vote for Kerry.

Kerry E		F Bush
Safe	Strong	Lean	Slight	Tossup	Slight	Lean	Strong	Safe
DC (3)	DE (3)	CA (55) K49-B41 5/31/04	MI (17) K47-B45 5/31/04	NM (5) B46-K45 4/1/04	VA (13) B47-K45 5/31/04	NV (5) B49-K38 3/17/04	MS (6) B49-UD29 12/22/03	AK (3)
HI (4)	VT (3) K51-B36 5/1/04	WA (11) K45-B44 K46-B42 6/11/04	NH (4) K46-B46 6/9/04	OR (7) B46-K45 5/31/04	AR (6) B48-K43 5/31/04	CO (9) B49-K44 4/14/04	KS (6) B57-K39 3/4/04	ND (3)
MA (12) K58-B33 5/31/04	CT (7) K46-B36 6/1/04	IA (7) K49-B41 5/31/04	WV (5) K47-B44 6/17/04	PA (21) B45-K44 5/31/04	FL (27) B50-K43 6/14/04	MO (11) B48-K37 6/8/04	OK (7) B53-K34 5/20/04	NE (5)
RI (4) K49-B25 6/14/04	ME (4) K54-B35 5/31/04	MN (10) K46.5-B42.2 6/14/04	-	WI (10) B44-K42 6/8/04	-	AZ (10) B44-K41 6/13/04	SD (3) B50-K35 5/21/04	WY (3)
-	IL (21) K52-B39 6/9/04	NJ (15) K46-B40 6/20/04	-	OH (20) K45-B42 6/8/04	-	NC (15) B47-K42 6/16/04	LA (9) B48-K42 5/31/04	ID (4) B55-K23 3/17/04
-	MD (10) K52-B38 6/9/04	-	-	-	-	TN (11) B51-K41 6/21/04	GA (15) B49-K32 6/2/04	UT (5) B67-K22 5/10/04
-	NY (31) K52-B34 6/14/04	-	-	-	-	-	SC (8) B49-K39 5/31/04	IN (11) B54-K33 5/19/04
-	-	-	-	-	-	-	KY (8) B52-K39 6/8/04	MT (3) B53-K33 5/26/04
-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	AL (9) B57-K36 5/31/04
-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	TX (34) B55-K38 5/31/04
Totals
Kerry States	Battleground States	Bush States

23	79	98	26	63	46	61	62	80

200	135	203

Discuss ECB2004 On Free Republic

Well, let's see.

Alaska, Alabama, Arizona, Colorado, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Michigan, Montana, Nebraska, New Hampshire, Ohio, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Texas, Utah, Virginia, Wyoming would all go for Bush. That's 24.

Arkansas, California, Hawaii, Massachusettes, Maryland, Maine, North Dakota, New York, Rhode Island, Vermont and Washington would go Kerry. That's 11.

Connecticut has only a 1 seat Democrat edge but they are more likely to pick up 1 than lose 1, so it goes Kerry giving him 12.

Illinois has a 1 seat Republican edge, but at an eyeball glance I don't see any that we are going to lose, so that's 25 for the good guys.

Missouri is another where we have a 1 seat edge. But none of our guys appears too vulnerable. 26.

North Carolina is another. Again I don't see any losses. 27.

New Jersey is a 1 seat edge for the Democrats and we won't gain ground. 13.

West Virginia has a 1 seat Democrat edge that they should hold. 14.

Louisiana we have a 1 seat edge. Tauzin's seat is vulnerable for us, but on their side both Alexander's seat and Johns' seats are.

Minnesota has an even split and probably will after the election.

Mississippi has an even split and probably will after the election.

New Mexico we have a 1 seat edge but could possibly lose it.

Nevada has a 1 seat Republican edge but we could possibly lose it.

Oregon has a 2 seat Democrat edge but two of their incumbents are vulnerable.

South Dakota depends on the Herseth/Diedrich rematch. Whichever party wins that would get it.

Tennessee has a 1 seat Democrat edge but they are not going to lose it.

Wisconsin has a split delegation, but Democrat Ron Kind is vulnerable.

So I see it as 27-14 with 9 states that either would deadlock or could be decided on election day. If it goes to the House, we win.

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

ECB	Bush 203, Kerry 200	Bush 249, Kerry 226 with tossups
ECB Classic	Kerry 236, Bush 214	Bush 285, Kerry 253 with tossups
ECB Classic Sans Zogby Interactive	Bush 226, Kerry 204	Bush 271, Kerry 263 with tossups
Calculated National Result	Bush 45.2%, Kerry 44.2%

ECB	Bush unchanged, Kerry +10	With tossups: Bush +27, Kerry +5
ECB Classic	Bush +35, Kerry +28	With tossups: Bush +73, Kerry -63
ECB Classic Sans Zogby Interactive	Bush +48, Kerry +4	With tossups: Bush -9, Kerry +32
Calculated National Result	Bush -0.3%, Kerry -0.3%