Alaska, Alabama, Arizona, Colorado, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Michigan, Montana, Nebraska, New Hampshire, Ohio, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Texas, Utah, Virginia, Wyoming would all go for Bush. That's 24.
Arkansas, California, Hawaii, Massachusettes, Maryland, Maine, North Dakota, New York, Rhode Island, Vermont and Washington would go Kerry. That's 11.
Connecticut has only a 1 seat Democrat edge but they are more likely to pick up 1 than lose 1, so it goes Kerry giving him 12.
Illinois has a 1 seat Republican edge, but at an eyeball glance I don't see any that we are going to lose, so that's 25 for the good guys.
Missouri is another where we have a 1 seat edge. But none of our guys appears too vulnerable. 26.
North Carolina is another. Again I don't see any losses. 27.
New Jersey is a 1 seat edge for the Democrats and we won't gain ground. 13.
West Virginia has a 1 seat Democrat edge that they should hold. 14.
Louisiana we have a 1 seat edge. Tauzin's seat is vulnerable for us, but on their side both Alexander's seat and Johns' seats are.
Minnesota has an even split and probably will after the election.
Mississippi has an even split and probably will after the election.
New Mexico we have a 1 seat edge but could possibly lose it.
Nevada has a 1 seat Republican edge but we could possibly lose it.
Oregon has a 2 seat Democrat edge but two of their incumbents are vulnerable.
South Dakota depends on the Herseth/Diedrich rematch. Whichever party wins that would get it.
Tennessee has a 1 seat Democrat edge but they are not going to lose it.
Wisconsin has a split delegation, but Democrat Ron Kind is vulnerable.
So I see it as 27-14 with 9 states that either would deadlock or could be decided on election day. If it goes to the House, we win.
Connecticut actually has a one-seat Republican edge (Simmons, Johnson and Shays are all GOP). However, John Kerry should win all of those districts by 10-15 points. Especially Simmons' District 2, which will be closer to the 15-range. He will perennially have a tough race. Casting a vote for Bush could be uncomfortable for any three of those Republicans, and I wonder if one of them might vote their district rather than their party. Can they chicken out and abstain?
What happens if a state like Minnesota deadlocks? Is there a mechanism for breaking the tie, or does that state end up effectively not casting a vote?
I think W would win it, but there would be an all-out assault from the media and the RATS to give the election to JFnK -- especially if he were the popular vote winner. The GOP historically has not held up well in such situations.
Bottom line is I really hope W wins it without having to go to the House.
"Louisiana we have a 1 seat edge. Tauzin's seat is vulnerable for us, but on their side both Alexander's seat and Johns' seats are."
As it stand right now, Cooksey and Fletcher have both bowed out of the race for Alexander's seat. I'm not sure who the Republicans are running now. This week it was announced a railroad car manufacturing plant would open in the district, bringing about 850 jobs, and I'm sure Alexander will be taking credit for that. He's looking a lot tougher to beat right now than he was a few weeks ago.
Unless there's been some polling I haven't seen, there won't be any party changes in Wisconsin's House delegation. While it is true that Kind was re-elected with the lowest percentage of the delegation, 62.8% in 2002 still makes his a safe seat. His district is also likely to remain RAT infested after he retires as well, as the "Mississippi River effect" is enhanced by a pair of college towns in La Crosse and Eau Claire.
On a related note, while Jerry Kleczka is retiring, and the Pubbies are putting up a token candidate (actually a pair) this time (they didn't bother in 2002), I still expect the RAT candidate to get better than 70% of the vote based simply on demographics (the city of Milwaukee and a few "choice" union suburbs).