[BlackRazor]

Connecticut has only a 1 seat Democrat edge but they are more likely to pick up 1 than lose 1, so it goes Kerry giving him 12.

Connecticut actually has a one-seat Republican edge (Simmons, Johnson and Shays are all GOP). However, John Kerry should win all of those districts by 10-15 points. Especially Simmons' District 2, which will be closer to the 15-range. He will perennially have a tough race. Casting a vote for Bush could be uncomfortable for any three of those Republicans, and I wonder if one of them might vote their district rather than their party. Can they chicken out and abstain?

What happens if a state like Minnesota deadlocks? Is there a mechanism for breaking the tie, or does that state end up effectively not casting a vote?

[doug9732]

"What happens if a state like Minnesota deadlocks? Is there a mechanism for breaking the tie, or does that state end up effectively not casting a vote?"

They can't cast a vote. If the House deadlocks, the VP elected by the Senate could be "acting President" for up to 4 years.

[Dales]

You are right, we have a 1 seat edge but have a vulnerable seat in Simmons. But I think that if you start to wonder if these guys would hold rank, a better question would be about the Democrats in North Dakota and Mississippi, or should Stephanie Herseth win again in South Dakota.

They would be under a lot more pressure if the split delegation states were not stalemated.

There is no provision for breaking ties in state delegations.

I think the person who said it is the incoming Congress that votes was wrong though, which obviously changes my analysis a tad (SD would go to the Democrats).