I think W would win it, but there would be an all-out assault from the media and the RATS to give the election to JFnK -- especially if he were the popular vote winner. The GOP historically has not held up well in such situations.
Bottom line is I really hope W wins it without having to go to the House.
It could even avoid going to the House if the EV appeared to be 269-269. Some electors might decide that they should vote for the candidate with the national popular vote lead. We might not know until Congress opened the EV ballots in January what the totals were.