Posted on 05/29/2004 4:48:59 PM PDT by Graybeard58
President Bush leads John Kerry by 6 percentage points in the battle for Ohio, a state that could decide who wins the White House, according to a statewide Plain Dealer poll.
Ohio voters surveyed say they favor Bush over Kerry, 47 percent to 41 percent. Consumer advocate Ralph Nader draws 3 percent, though he has yet to qualify for the Ohio ballot. Nine percent say they are undecided.
Though Bush is given low marks for his handling of the economy and the war in Iraq, those who say they favor him cite his moral character and his stewardship over the war on terrorism and homeland security as reasons.
"I'm very concerned about what a change of administration would mean, primarily about security," says Bob Saul, a retired General Electric marketing manager from Cincinnati who participated in the poll.
Though the economy remains a major concern, Saul says he is not willing to risk returning "to an era of appeasement and therefore wind up being more vulnerable to future attacks."
Much of Kerry's support (62 percent) is from voters who say they favor him not so much for who he is but for who he is not - George Bush - a sign that Kerry has not yet sold himself or his plans to the state's voters.
"I'm more anti-Bush, and I'm not really that strong on Kerry," says Burel Eding of Toledo, who participated in the poll. "I feel we need a change. I supported Bush on the invasion in Afghanistan, but I don't think he's doing enough on the economy."
The poll, conducted May 20-25 by Mason-Dixon Polling and Research, is based on interviews with 1,500 registered voters who plan to vote in November. The poll, which has a margin of error of 2.6 percentage points, is the largest presidential poll taken in Ohio this year.
The results run counter to the findings of earlier polls, conducted in Ohio by other organizations, that have showed the race a dead heat or with Kerry slightly ahead.
The Plain Dealer results "remind us that there are 50 different state elections, and it is very important to pay attention to the polls in the states, particularly the ones done with a large sample of people who intend to vote," says Karlyn Bowman, who studies opinion polls at the American Enterprise Institute, a think tank in Washington, D.C. "There are clearly differences in the electorate in states about the race overall."
The poll shows Bush is favored even though nearly one out of two people surveyed say they disapprove of his handling of the economy, which remains the No. 1 issue of concern among Ohio voters. And Bush tops Kerry even though less than half - 45 percent - approve of his handling of the war in Iraq. Among those interviewed who are planning to vote for Bush, 53 percent cite his character and integrity as their top reason for supporting the president. Nearly 30 percent say they plan to vote for him first and foremost because they like the leadership he has shown in the war on terror.
"Bush's strength is the 'strength' issue," says Bowman. "People do believe nationally that the Bush administration has made this nation safer."
Kevin Madden, a Bush campaign spokesman, declined to comment on any of the poll's specific findings. He says he believes "Ohioans look to their president for leadership and clarity on the issues that are important to them" and "that is a message that we look forward to delivering throughout this campaign in Ohio."
Though Bush shows strength in this poll, the results "don't look good for a sitting president," says John Green, director of the Bliss Institute of Applied Politics at the University of Akron. Bush's support on foreign affairs could change, Green says, especially if the situation in Iraq worsens and it "gets caught up in an issue that he can't control."
For Kerry, the poll shows that voters have yet to connect with Kerry or his domestic and foreign affairs policies, reflected by the 62 percent of Kerry's support comes from people who dislike Bush. Twenty-one percent of those surveyed who plan to vote for Kerry cite his policies as the most important issue; 16 percent say his character and integrity is the top issue.
Bowman says Kerry needs to convert some of the anti-Bush vote into Kerry backers to improve his chances. To do that, she says, Kerry needs to raise more doubt about Bush's handling of the economy and make the message stick."That right now, in national polls and well in Ohio, is the strength of the Democrats because voters think Kerry would better handle the economy," she says.
Kerry doesn't have to convince Shirley Bruce of Munroe Falls.
"I'm with Kerry 100 percent," says Bruce, a retiree who participated in the poll. "I don't like that everything is leaving the state."
Bruce cites Kerry's emphasis on the economy as her top reason for supporting him. But she says she would like to learn more about him.
Kerry's campaign says it knows it must educate voters about the senator and his positions.
"Recent polling in Ohio has fluctuated, and it is still very early to rely on anyone particular poll," says Jennifer Palmieri, Kerry's Ohio spokeswoman. "These numbers reflect a overall dissatisfaction with Bush and an opportunity for John Kerry. We have to work hard to make sure people know who John Kerry is."
The Kerry campaign is airing biographical TV commercials in the state about his family and military background. And Kerry has benefited from special interest groups that have run ads in Ohio critical of Bush's policies. He and his wife, Theresa Heinz Kerry, have visited the state a half-dozen times.
Bush has visited Ohio 17 times as president and has spent millions here to air campaign commercials.
Ohio's voters were narrowly split in the 2000 election, with Bush defeating Al Gore by less than 4 percent. As a result, with 20 electoral votes up for grabs, the state is considered a top prize that could swing the election.
But campaigning in Ohio is difficult because it includes five distinct regions, from flat and mountainous rural regions with a conservative Republican bent to liberal urban areas that favor Democrats.
Voters in Ohio's socially conservative Southwest, which includes the Republican stronghold of Cincinnati, favor Bush by the widest margin - 20 percentage points - over Kerry, 54 percent to 34 percent.
By contrast, voters in the Northeast favor Kerry the most - by 9 percentage points - at 47 percent to 38 percent. The Northeast contains the Democratic cities Cleveland and Youngstown, which have suffered more job losses than most other parts of the state.
Ohio's Southeast region, which includes Appalachia, may be the most competitive at this point - with room for both candidates to make their mark. "The Southeast has born the brunt of economic troubles in Ohio and we will have Kerry spend a great deal of time there," Palmieri says. But converting voters might be difficult, the poll suggests.
Asked if it is reasonably possible that they might change their presidential vote before the November election, 73 percent of the would-be voters say no.
Still, that does leave a large number of undecided voters. Edith Coe of Granville, Ohio, is a voter on the fence.
"I was kind of interested in Kerry but with all the mudslinger ads neither one of them seems that good now," says Coe, a retired school district employee. "It's not that I think Bush is doing a horrible job, but when you hear about how Kerry fluctuates that scares you, too."
Good news from Ohio.
Bush outside the MOE over Kerry. Kerry support is Kleenex.
Heard on Fox that Zogby has Kerry leading in Ohio and Kerry leading overall with 350 electoral votes to President Bush's 200+.
These polls, especially Zogby's are all over the map....
Bush's biggest threat isn't Kerry. It's bad news. Nobody likes Kerry. He's arrogant, filthy rich, has a long record of extremism, and is a bore to boot. No one who isn't an insane leftist would be a naturally inclined to vote for him.
Huh? The economy is growing at its fastest pace in 20 years and this bozo doesn't think Bush is doing enough for the economy. More proof the Dems prey on ignorance.
The polls are really volatile actually, or can't get the science right this year. The problem is that the swing voters think both candidates are highly flawed. We need to try to ignore them absent really big moves, until after the conventions. Doing that at least will reduce the Rolaid consumption.
From a reliable org - Mason-Dixon.
Heard on Fox that Zogby has Kerry leading in Ohio and Kerry leading overall with 350 electoral votes to President Bush's 200+.
OK. I'm locked in 45-45-10 until the jihadists hit and hit they will. Then we'll see if America is Chamberlainesque or Churchillian. I'm betting on Winston.
Thanks for the article. Further proof that Midwesterners are full of common sense. With all the anti-Bush sentiment I see around me, it is hard not to conclude that the North East has been take over by nincompoops, nitwits and dummkopfts.
I probably have the numbers wrong, but the gist is that Zogby has Bush way behind Kerry on the electoral votes.
Like I suspected...
Then again, now we'll probably be hearing "Leading OH, MI and FL?!? Landslide, baby!!!" :-)
Later amigo.
I course it is Winston rather than Neville. But the odds are against it happening. I hope my handicaping is right, as I am sure you do.
"Heard on Fox that Zogby has Kerry leading in Ohio and Kerry leading overall with 350 electoral votes to President Bush's 200+. "
Zogby is using INTERACTIVE polling technology to generate these results; that is, prospective pollees must visit his website and then vote on-line -- BOGUS BOGUS BOGUS!!!!
The pollster cited here is MASON-DIXON -- one of two or three LEGITIMATE pollsters still doing research in this country!
WE IN THE CINCY AREA WILL DELIVER OHIO FOR PRESIDENT BUSH! This poll indicates that we're doing what we need to do -- we're exceeding the vote totals for the Cleveland/Youngstown/Akron area by 6-10 percentage points!
It's really sad to read your post...not because you said it, but because it's true.
I hope you are right...Chamberlain would mean the beginning of the decline of a great nation...
I have been telling people Ohio will not go for Kerry. I live in Cleveland and outside of "traditional" democrat supporters no one is for him.
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