Posted on 05/29/2004 4:48:59 PM PDT by Graybeard58
President Bush leads John Kerry by 6 percentage points in the battle for Ohio, a state that could decide who wins the White House, according to a statewide Plain Dealer poll.
Ohio voters surveyed say they favor Bush over Kerry, 47 percent to 41 percent. Consumer advocate Ralph Nader draws 3 percent, though he has yet to qualify for the Ohio ballot. Nine percent say they are undecided.
Though Bush is given low marks for his handling of the economy and the war in Iraq, those who say they favor him cite his moral character and his stewardship over the war on terrorism and homeland security as reasons.
"I'm very concerned about what a change of administration would mean, primarily about security," says Bob Saul, a retired General Electric marketing manager from Cincinnati who participated in the poll.
Though the economy remains a major concern, Saul says he is not willing to risk returning "to an era of appeasement and therefore wind up being more vulnerable to future attacks."
Much of Kerry's support (62 percent) is from voters who say they favor him not so much for who he is but for who he is not - George Bush - a sign that Kerry has not yet sold himself or his plans to the state's voters.
"I'm more anti-Bush, and I'm not really that strong on Kerry," says Burel Eding of Toledo, who participated in the poll. "I feel we need a change. I supported Bush on the invasion in Afghanistan, but I don't think he's doing enough on the economy."
The poll, conducted May 20-25 by Mason-Dixon Polling and Research, is based on interviews with 1,500 registered voters who plan to vote in November. The poll, which has a margin of error of 2.6 percentage points, is the largest presidential poll taken in Ohio this year.
The results run counter to the findings of earlier polls, conducted in Ohio by other organizations, that have showed the race a dead heat or with Kerry slightly ahead.
The Plain Dealer results "remind us that there are 50 different state elections, and it is very important to pay attention to the polls in the states, particularly the ones done with a large sample of people who intend to vote," says Karlyn Bowman, who studies opinion polls at the American Enterprise Institute, a think tank in Washington, D.C. "There are clearly differences in the electorate in states about the race overall."
The poll shows Bush is favored even though nearly one out of two people surveyed say they disapprove of his handling of the economy, which remains the No. 1 issue of concern among Ohio voters. And Bush tops Kerry even though less than half - 45 percent - approve of his handling of the war in Iraq. Among those interviewed who are planning to vote for Bush, 53 percent cite his character and integrity as their top reason for supporting the president. Nearly 30 percent say they plan to vote for him first and foremost because they like the leadership he has shown in the war on terror.
"Bush's strength is the 'strength' issue," says Bowman. "People do believe nationally that the Bush administration has made this nation safer."
Kevin Madden, a Bush campaign spokesman, declined to comment on any of the poll's specific findings. He says he believes "Ohioans look to their president for leadership and clarity on the issues that are important to them" and "that is a message that we look forward to delivering throughout this campaign in Ohio."
Though Bush shows strength in this poll, the results "don't look good for a sitting president," says John Green, director of the Bliss Institute of Applied Politics at the University of Akron. Bush's support on foreign affairs could change, Green says, especially if the situation in Iraq worsens and it "gets caught up in an issue that he can't control."
For Kerry, the poll shows that voters have yet to connect with Kerry or his domestic and foreign affairs policies, reflected by the 62 percent of Kerry's support comes from people who dislike Bush. Twenty-one percent of those surveyed who plan to vote for Kerry cite his policies as the most important issue; 16 percent say his character and integrity is the top issue.
Bowman says Kerry needs to convert some of the anti-Bush vote into Kerry backers to improve his chances. To do that, she says, Kerry needs to raise more doubt about Bush's handling of the economy and make the message stick."That right now, in national polls and well in Ohio, is the strength of the Democrats because voters think Kerry would better handle the economy," she says.
Kerry doesn't have to convince Shirley Bruce of Munroe Falls.
"I'm with Kerry 100 percent," says Bruce, a retiree who participated in the poll. "I don't like that everything is leaving the state."
Bruce cites Kerry's emphasis on the economy as her top reason for supporting him. But she says she would like to learn more about him.
Kerry's campaign says it knows it must educate voters about the senator and his positions.
"Recent polling in Ohio has fluctuated, and it is still very early to rely on anyone particular poll," says Jennifer Palmieri, Kerry's Ohio spokeswoman. "These numbers reflect a overall dissatisfaction with Bush and an opportunity for John Kerry. We have to work hard to make sure people know who John Kerry is."
The Kerry campaign is airing biographical TV commercials in the state about his family and military background. And Kerry has benefited from special interest groups that have run ads in Ohio critical of Bush's policies. He and his wife, Theresa Heinz Kerry, have visited the state a half-dozen times.
Bush has visited Ohio 17 times as president and has spent millions here to air campaign commercials.
Ohio's voters were narrowly split in the 2000 election, with Bush defeating Al Gore by less than 4 percent. As a result, with 20 electoral votes up for grabs, the state is considered a top prize that could swing the election.
But campaigning in Ohio is difficult because it includes five distinct regions, from flat and mountainous rural regions with a conservative Republican bent to liberal urban areas that favor Democrats.
Voters in Ohio's socially conservative Southwest, which includes the Republican stronghold of Cincinnati, favor Bush by the widest margin - 20 percentage points - over Kerry, 54 percent to 34 percent.
By contrast, voters in the Northeast favor Kerry the most - by 9 percentage points - at 47 percent to 38 percent. The Northeast contains the Democratic cities Cleveland and Youngstown, which have suffered more job losses than most other parts of the state.
Ohio's Southeast region, which includes Appalachia, may be the most competitive at this point - with room for both candidates to make their mark. "The Southeast has born the brunt of economic troubles in Ohio and we will have Kerry spend a great deal of time there," Palmieri says. But converting voters might be difficult, the poll suggests.
Asked if it is reasonably possible that they might change their presidential vote before the November election, 73 percent of the would-be voters say no.
Still, that does leave a large number of undecided voters. Edith Coe of Granville, Ohio, is a voter on the fence.
"I was kind of interested in Kerry but with all the mudslinger ads neither one of them seems that good now," says Coe, a retired school district employee. "It's not that I think Bush is doing a horrible job, but when you hear about how Kerry fluctuates that scares you, too."
Baloney-I guarantee there is more traffic flow south on I-77 from Statesville to Charlotte than there is west on I-40 from Statesville to Hickory. For years Mooresville High School was one of the fastest growing schools in the state because Charlotte parents were fleeing Char-Meck schools and relocating in southern Iredell county. I'd bet a huge percentage of those who live on Lake Norman in Iredell, Lincoln and Catawba counties commute to work in Charlotte.
The original poster already admitted that he was probably misremembering the number Zogby said.
Greater Hickory Metro (Alexander,Burke,Catawba,Caldwell,Iredell)
Whoops! That second link was an accident. The other two make the point..
Check this out.
In post 35, I postulated that Republicans in general are doing better in areas where the economy and the population are growing most rapidly, and that Dems seem to do better in areas of more modest, or even negative, growth. Since I was in large part responsible for diverting some of this thread's discussions to North Carolina, it is only right that I should return it to Ohio, which by any reasonable measure is a more critical state in 2004.
AntiGuv focused on a 5-county region centered on Charlotte for his analysis; let's compare that area to a 6-county region centered on Toledo. The comparison is imperfect, as any comparison would be, but I think instructive nonetheless. In 1980, in the five Charlotte-area counties (Cabarrus, Gaston, Lincoln, Mecklenburg [which includes Charlotte], and Union), Ronald Reagan received 145,253 votes (53.68% of the 2-party vote), and Jimmy Carter took received 125,319 (46.32%). Note the total 2-party vote: 270,572. In the same election, in the six Toledo-area counties (Fulton, Henry, Lucas [which includes Toledo], Ottawa, Sandusky, and Wood), Reagan received 143,585 votes (53.01% of the 2-party vote), and Carter received 127,299 (49.99%). The total 2-party vote was 270,884, so both in terms of percentage and in terms of total votes, the Charlotte and Toledo votes were quite similar. (It should be noted that Ohioan John Anderson received about 8% of the vote in metro Toledo, as compared to about 4% in metro Charlotte; I doubt that the net impact was significant since he pulled more or less the same number of votes from each major candidate.)
Now, let's look at 2000. George Bush carried that same Charlotte area by a margin of 282,974 (58.51% of the 2-party vote) to 200,669 (41.49%). But -- Holy Toledo! -- Gore whipped Bush in the Ohio metro area 162,834 (52.98%) to 144,538 (47.02%). The most significant stat here, though, is the total vote. From 1980 to 2000, the 2-party vote in the Charlotte area jumped by 78.75%; in the Toledo area, the increase was only 13.47% (and would have been less had Anderson's 1980 votes been figured into the equation).
OH should be moved back into the Bush column this week, or at the very least, taken out of Kerry's when Dales comes out on Wednesday.
Too lazy to work...too lazy to vote. The unemployed are already registered dims, let's focus on the 95% employed vote....
This link sets Statesville apart as a seperate MSA from Hickory, Morganton and Lenoir (commonly referred to as the Unifour). And this link includes Lincolnton in Charlotte's MSA. Of the four sources I consulted each had different counties listed as part of the Charlotte Metro area.
<a href="http://eslmi12.esc.state.nc.us/oes/regions/regions_data/planning_region_f/divisions_planningregionf.html>This link</a> includes Iredell as part of the same planning region as Charlotte. Please note that these are all state of North Carolina links. (for some reason I can't make the html wokr for the last link-I've tried three times).
Good news, indeed. I recently moved to southern Ohio (from the deep South), and our local rag (Dayton Daily News) is always anxious to potray President Bush as behind or in trouble in his efforts to carry Ohio. The last poll, as I recall, had Kerry up by 3-4 points, a sharp contrast to the Plain Dealer poll, which shows Bush leading beyond the margin of error. I'm sure the Daily News will bury that poll in one of the back sections. Of course, it goes without saying that a Republican has never won the White House in modern time without carrying Ohio, and conventional wisdom says that a GOP candidate must do well in southern Ohio, and suburban and rural areas across the state to win...this is good news; I only hope it holds.
This link:
http://newslink.org/topstate.html
Is to the top 255 newspapers in the U.S. Having read most of them from time to time over the last couple of years I have concluded that the overwhelming majority of them are liberal. I'm guessing 80 to 90%.
We have won the war in Afghan and Iraq, we are winning the peace, and W will win in November, you betcha
Neither the U.S. Census Bureau nor the Bureau of Labor Statistics nor the Bureau of Labor & Statistics nor the Bureau of Economic Analysis nor the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond nor the Department of Housing and Urban Development include Statesville in the Charlotte Metropolitan Area. In fact, they all do what all right-thinking people do: they totally ignore it. That's good enough for me...
"The same problems exist just across the border in Western PA. Bush should be strong in SE Ohio and Western PA; he ain't."
SE Ohio and W PA are Appalachia. The economy hasn't been any good there in forty years since coal and steel began to play out. And it has not been a strong republican area, historically.
Fact is, jobs are picking up briskly in the Cleveland area, if not the City itself; but there are a large clot of braindead democrats who will never admit it, like the parasite from Toledo, even as they leave the house for their job every morning.
PING.
Hmm.. It's just one Bureau or Labor & Statistics. Dunno what's up with that stutter! =)
When the map opens you will just have to click on Miecklenburg county-link didn't open the exact map I wanted.
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