haha !
[Expletive deleted] !!!
Posted on 05/29/2004 4:48:59 PM PDT by Graybeard58
President Bush leads John Kerry by 6 percentage points in the battle for Ohio, a state that could decide who wins the White House, according to a statewide Plain Dealer poll.
Ohio voters surveyed say they favor Bush over Kerry, 47 percent to 41 percent. Consumer advocate Ralph Nader draws 3 percent, though he has yet to qualify for the Ohio ballot. Nine percent say they are undecided.
Though Bush is given low marks for his handling of the economy and the war in Iraq, those who say they favor him cite his moral character and his stewardship over the war on terrorism and homeland security as reasons.
"I'm very concerned about what a change of administration would mean, primarily about security," says Bob Saul, a retired General Electric marketing manager from Cincinnati who participated in the poll.
Though the economy remains a major concern, Saul says he is not willing to risk returning "to an era of appeasement and therefore wind up being more vulnerable to future attacks."
Much of Kerry's support (62 percent) is from voters who say they favor him not so much for who he is but for who he is not - George Bush - a sign that Kerry has not yet sold himself or his plans to the state's voters.
"I'm more anti-Bush, and I'm not really that strong on Kerry," says Burel Eding of Toledo, who participated in the poll. "I feel we need a change. I supported Bush on the invasion in Afghanistan, but I don't think he's doing enough on the economy."
The poll, conducted May 20-25 by Mason-Dixon Polling and Research, is based on interviews with 1,500 registered voters who plan to vote in November. The poll, which has a margin of error of 2.6 percentage points, is the largest presidential poll taken in Ohio this year.
The results run counter to the findings of earlier polls, conducted in Ohio by other organizations, that have showed the race a dead heat or with Kerry slightly ahead.
The Plain Dealer results "remind us that there are 50 different state elections, and it is very important to pay attention to the polls in the states, particularly the ones done with a large sample of people who intend to vote," says Karlyn Bowman, who studies opinion polls at the American Enterprise Institute, a think tank in Washington, D.C. "There are clearly differences in the electorate in states about the race overall."
The poll shows Bush is favored even though nearly one out of two people surveyed say they disapprove of his handling of the economy, which remains the No. 1 issue of concern among Ohio voters. And Bush tops Kerry even though less than half - 45 percent - approve of his handling of the war in Iraq. Among those interviewed who are planning to vote for Bush, 53 percent cite his character and integrity as their top reason for supporting the president. Nearly 30 percent say they plan to vote for him first and foremost because they like the leadership he has shown in the war on terror.
"Bush's strength is the 'strength' issue," says Bowman. "People do believe nationally that the Bush administration has made this nation safer."
Kevin Madden, a Bush campaign spokesman, declined to comment on any of the poll's specific findings. He says he believes "Ohioans look to their president for leadership and clarity on the issues that are important to them" and "that is a message that we look forward to delivering throughout this campaign in Ohio."
Though Bush shows strength in this poll, the results "don't look good for a sitting president," says John Green, director of the Bliss Institute of Applied Politics at the University of Akron. Bush's support on foreign affairs could change, Green says, especially if the situation in Iraq worsens and it "gets caught up in an issue that he can't control."
For Kerry, the poll shows that voters have yet to connect with Kerry or his domestic and foreign affairs policies, reflected by the 62 percent of Kerry's support comes from people who dislike Bush. Twenty-one percent of those surveyed who plan to vote for Kerry cite his policies as the most important issue; 16 percent say his character and integrity is the top issue.
Bowman says Kerry needs to convert some of the anti-Bush vote into Kerry backers to improve his chances. To do that, she says, Kerry needs to raise more doubt about Bush's handling of the economy and make the message stick."That right now, in national polls and well in Ohio, is the strength of the Democrats because voters think Kerry would better handle the economy," she says.
Kerry doesn't have to convince Shirley Bruce of Munroe Falls.
"I'm with Kerry 100 percent," says Bruce, a retiree who participated in the poll. "I don't like that everything is leaving the state."
Bruce cites Kerry's emphasis on the economy as her top reason for supporting him. But she says she would like to learn more about him.
Kerry's campaign says it knows it must educate voters about the senator and his positions.
"Recent polling in Ohio has fluctuated, and it is still very early to rely on anyone particular poll," says Jennifer Palmieri, Kerry's Ohio spokeswoman. "These numbers reflect a overall dissatisfaction with Bush and an opportunity for John Kerry. We have to work hard to make sure people know who John Kerry is."
The Kerry campaign is airing biographical TV commercials in the state about his family and military background. And Kerry has benefited from special interest groups that have run ads in Ohio critical of Bush's policies. He and his wife, Theresa Heinz Kerry, have visited the state a half-dozen times.
Bush has visited Ohio 17 times as president and has spent millions here to air campaign commercials.
Ohio's voters were narrowly split in the 2000 election, with Bush defeating Al Gore by less than 4 percent. As a result, with 20 electoral votes up for grabs, the state is considered a top prize that could swing the election.
But campaigning in Ohio is difficult because it includes five distinct regions, from flat and mountainous rural regions with a conservative Republican bent to liberal urban areas that favor Democrats.
Voters in Ohio's socially conservative Southwest, which includes the Republican stronghold of Cincinnati, favor Bush by the widest margin - 20 percentage points - over Kerry, 54 percent to 34 percent.
By contrast, voters in the Northeast favor Kerry the most - by 9 percentage points - at 47 percent to 38 percent. The Northeast contains the Democratic cities Cleveland and Youngstown, which have suffered more job losses than most other parts of the state.
Ohio's Southeast region, which includes Appalachia, may be the most competitive at this point - with room for both candidates to make their mark. "The Southeast has born the brunt of economic troubles in Ohio and we will have Kerry spend a great deal of time there," Palmieri says. But converting voters might be difficult, the poll suggests.
Asked if it is reasonably possible that they might change their presidential vote before the November election, 73 percent of the would-be voters say no.
Still, that does leave a large number of undecided voters. Edith Coe of Granville, Ohio, is a voter on the fence.
"I was kind of interested in Kerry but with all the mudslinger ads neither one of them seems that good now," says Coe, a retired school district employee. "It's not that I think Bush is doing a horrible job, but when you hear about how Kerry fluctuates that scares you, too."
You probably cannot relate to folks who lose their "overpaid" union jobs, and have no hope of ever going home again. For them, a free jtrade global job market really sucks. The music has stopped for them, forever, particularly if they are over 40. It is just something that we have to work through, and absorb the losses, politically.
The Senate races would be interesting. State races are noise. Sebate races are interesting, because they are so partisan in NC.
So the people of Ohio are going to blame Bush for what has been happening to local industries for over 30 years.
Mega stupid to the max.
You probably know nothing about me.
I lost my "union job" in the clothing industry FIRST when jobs moved south to escape the unions and the THEN overseas for even cheaper labor costs.
I went back to school and learned a new skill, and ended up BETTER off than I was previosly.
And I have learned and improved my job skills several times since then...( I am now turning 50) instead of crying about how I have "no hope"...(waaaaah!)
Here are the Senate numbers:
1992 Senate
Sanford: 174,516 41.88%
Faircloth: 223,870 53.72%
1996 Senate
Gantt: 188,050 45.82%
Helms: 216,212 52.68%
1998 Senate
Edwards: 152,218 49.13%
Faircloth: 150,154 48.46%
2002 Senate
Bowles: 158,826 42.14%
E. Dole: 212,401 56.36%
The Governor races would also be distorted because the GOP nominee was from Charlotte in 1996 and 2000. Of course, Gantt was also from Charlotte and so was Bowles, though he wasn't really thought of that way. It's probably more interesting to look at how they over or undershot the statewide vote:
1992: Sanford -4.4%; Faircloth +3.4%
1996: Gantt -0.1%; Helms +0.1%
1998: Edwards -2.1%; Faircloth +1.5%
2002: Bowles -2.9%; Dole +2.8%
Not a really clear picture.
I salute you. But well, you know the syndrome, particulary for middle aged folks. Actually, there are relatively few "overpaid" union jobs in private industry left, which is one reason why Gephardt tanked, and why this issue is not really gaining much traction, and will not gain much traction, to the coming surprise of many.
Yes, I do. It is kind of scarey. As a middle-aged HIV+ man who could become sick and disabled at anytime, I thank God for everyday I have a job and have the strength to do it.
This cloud hanging over my head has made me a hopelessly grateful and optimistic man. Ironic isn't it?
Yep, not much there, except metro Charlotte loved Liddy apparently, since she won big, and won even bigger in metro Charlotte), the reverse of the two Bushes, where both won big in NC, but Dubya lagged by a quite discernable drop in metro Charlotte. Maybe they are becoming RINO's (aka relatively moderate Pubbies) or something.
I suspect the big reason is because Kerry is probably absolutely the worst candidate since McGovern for the dems on working class issues.
He can't sell the "I'm one of you" like Klinton, and even Gore suprisingly to some degree.
Good luck to you, and all the best. You clearly have shown the courage to carry on, despite the downs in your life. That is all any of us can do.
Thank you so much. I think this optimism is the American way and what I truly love about this country.
Like when I saw the NY Firefighters raise the American flag above the ruins of the Trade Towers. This is a beautiful spirit that I find unique and typically American.
I knew we were winners when I saw this.
Hang tough bro.
There have been two 'surprises' in recent Senate elections: one was that Bowles tanked in the Charlotte area; the other was that Edwards cracked open the Triad.
there is no way kerry wins FLORIDA
Bush will win by atleast 4%
Thanks!
>>Yeah, there are jobs but not good jobs
I hear the same thing ..... must be a memo out there from Dem headquarters.
haha !
[Expletive deleted] !!!
I was shocked to see the PD put it there!
(I would have expected the PD to bury that story on page 7, section E, in one paragraph, "as they usually do")!
You and me both. Considering the Bush-bashing that the Plain Dealer has been doing lately, I figured this story would be below the fold, at least. A pleasant surprise, for once.
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