Posted on 05/17/2004 3:13:18 PM PDT by Momaw Nadon
State | % Chance of Bush Winning | Bush Electoral Votes | Kerry Electoral Votes |
Alabama | 95.0 | 9 | 0 |
Alaska | 93.0 | 3 | 0 |
Arizona | 77.0 | 10 | 0 |
Arkansas | 68.0 | 6 | 0 |
California | 13.5 | 0 | 55 |
Colorado | 83.0 | 9 | 0 |
Connecticut | 8.0 | 0 | 7 |
Delaware | 20.0 | 0 | 3 |
District of Columbia | 0.5 | 0 | 3 |
Florida | 62.0 | 27 | 0 |
Georgia | 90.0 | 15 | 0 |
Hawaii | 8.0 | 0 | 4 |
Idaho | 95.0 | 4 | 0 |
Illinois | 15.0 | 0 | 21 |
Indiana | 88.0 | 11 | 0 |
Iowa | 42.0 | 0 | 7 |
Kansas | 92.0 | 6 | 0 |
Kentucky | 89.0 | 8 | 0 |
Louisiana | 80.0 | 9 | 0 |
Maine | 21.0 | 0 | 4 |
Maryland | 12.0 | 0 | 10 |
Massachusetts | 2.0 | 0 | 12 |
Michigan | 33.0 | 0 | 17 |
Minnesota | 36.0 | 0 | 10 |
Mississippi | 95.0 | 6 | 0 |
Missouri | 63.0 | 11 | 0 |
Montana | 92.0 | 3 | 0 |
Nebraska | 96.0 | 5 | 0 |
Nevada | 70.0 | 5 | 0 |
New Hampshire | 56.0 | 4 | 0 |
New Jersey | 14.0 | 0 | 15 |
New Mexico | 57.0 | 5 | 0 |
New York | 8.0 | 0 | 31 |
North Carolina | 86.0 | 15 | 0 |
North Dakota | 95.0 | 3 | 0 |
Ohio | 53.0 | 20 | 0 |
Oklahoma | 95.0 | 7 | 0 |
Oregon | 44.0 | 0 | 7 |
Pennsylvania | 59.0 | 21 | 0 |
Rhode Island | 5.0 | 0 | 4 |
South Carolina | 89.5 | 8 | 0 |
South Dakota | 95.0 | 3 | 0 |
Tennessee | 87.0 | 11 | 0 |
Texas | 95.0 | 34 | 0 |
Utah | 95.0 | 5 | 0 |
Vermont | 6.0 | 0 | 3 |
Virginia | 88.0 | 13 | 0 |
Washington | 27.0 | 0 | 11 |
West Virginia | 67.0 | 5 | 0 |
Wisconsin | 47.0 | 0 | 10 |
Wyoming | 95.0 | 3 | 0 |
Totals | 304 | 234 |
According to the current trading prices of the futures contracts, an estimate can be found of what traders are betting will be the outcome of 2004 Presidential Election.
If the traders are correct, President Bush would receive 304 Electoral Votes and John Kerry would receive 234 Electoral Votes.
If the weighted probabilities of President Bush winning in the states are added up, and then divided by 538, and multiplied by 100, then President Bush should get 284.80 Electoral Votes.
270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the Presidency.
Opinions and commentary are welcome.
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/10/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/3/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/26/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/19/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/12/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/5/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/29/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/22/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/15/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/8/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/1/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/23/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/16/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/9/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/2/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/26/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/21/2004
This gives one state change since 2000 (PA to Bush). That doesn't seem right, given the 304 EC vote figure.
PA is correct.
He also gets NM...and he added some vote from redistricting...it's right.
Frankly, this is about what I would expect Nov. 2
You forgot New Mexico and reapportionment.
Forgot NM. Oops.
Date | Prob. Win. | Mean EV | Std. Dev. |
01/21 | 96.8% | 341.5 | 41.1 |
01/26 | 95.5% | 334.8 | 40.6 |
02/02 | 92.2% | 323.8 | 39.7 |
02/09 | 83.0% | 307.8 | 40.3 |
02/16 | 78.4% | 300.4 | 39.4 |
02/23 | 76.2% | 298.2 | 39.6 |
03/01 | 74.5% | 295.9 | 39.3 |
03/08 | 68.0% | 289.2 | 39.8 |
03/15 | 68.0% | 288.8 | 39.0 |
03/22 | 68.5% | 289.3 | 38.8 |
03/29 | 69.4% | 290.1 | 38.8 |
04/05 | 71.2% | 292.3 | 39.1 |
04/12 | 70.4% | 290.6 | 38.1 |
04/19 | 68.6% | 288.1 | 36.7 |
04/26 | 64.9% | 284.5 | 36.3 |
05/03 | 66.3% | 285.7 | 36.3 |
05/10 | 65.6% | 285.3 | 36.8 |
05/17 | 65.2% | 284.8 | 36.6 |
I trust the money movers
more than thoe pollsters with agendas.
GREAT POST!
Thanks jdege!
And I still think Bush is going to carry Minnesota.
Pawlenty just did a briar-patch on the Senate DFL, and a lot of people are seriously fed up with the whole crowd of them.
(My mother had decided, earlier this year, that she'd have to vote for Bush - simply because she couldn't trust Kerry. She was wavering, some. But she just got that letter from the Social Security Administration...)
Swing states:
Bush lean
OH 53%
NH 56
NM 57
PA 59
FL 62
MO 63
WV 67
AR 68
NV 70
Kerry lean
WI 47
OR 44
IA 42
MN 36
MI 33
Bush could lose OH, NH, and NM and still win. Of course its all not quite that simple, but some perspective.
As an aside, I notice there are contracts for the LA Lakers to win the NBA championship--alas, if I only bought some a week ago (and invested in Micro $oft in 1987)
I've said it before and I'll say it again...All of us in flyover country need to have more children. It's the population in the metro areas that are the problem. LOL
On April 26, tradesports.com had Bush at 314 EVs...since that week, Bush has held at 304 EVs.
Do you put Minnesota as securely in the Kerry camp as this wagering outfit does?
One of life's simple truths is: Money talks, bull feces walks.
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