2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/17/2004

TradeSports.com ^ | Monday, May 17, 2004 | Momaw Nadon

[onyx]

One of life's simple truths is: Money talks, bull feces walks. LOL!

[HostileTerritory]

Latest polls shows him only 1% back in California

Oh--has there been a second poll with that result?

[speekinout]

It's the population in the metro areas that are the problem. LOL

A significant part of the metro population that vote Dem reside in the local cemeteries. Another sizeable group live in nursing homes.
If we could just make them report results before they knew how many votes they needed, some states might be switched.

[LS]

Small problem: we have TWO separate polls out now showing Bush up 4% in Michigan!!!

[PGalt]

I like that news!

[jdege]

Not a chance.

We've a very smart Republican Governor, a very large GOP majority in the House, and a very narrow DFL minority in the Senate.

Last session, the GOP arranged a deal with a couple of out-state Democrats, and steam-rollered the Senate DFL leadership on the budget and a number of social issues that have the urban liberal activists frothing at the mouth.

(Two billion dollar deficit dealt with without raising taxes, a shall-issue handgun carry permit law, a ban on partial-birth abortion, and the scrapping of Education Minnesota's "Profile of Learning" education standards.)

So this year, the Senate Dems were adamant that they wouldn't let it happen again. A position enhanced by the fact that the Senate isn't up for election again until 2006.

And they dug in their heels, and refused to compromise.

With the result that yesterday we ended a legislative session that did almost exactly nothing. Most notably, we ended the session without an amended budget and without passing a bonding bill.

We're dealing with times in which voters are concerned, and they want leadership. They may not be sure that Bush has the best approach, but they know that Bush has an approach - Kerry they're not so sure about.

Minnesota has been moving right, in recent years, as the DFL has been abandoning the concerns of the out-state democrats. Because of this, out-state democrats have been losing. With the result that the DFL caucus has been increasingly dominated by urban liberals, who then committed to policies that resulted in more and more out-state democrats abandoning the Party. It's been a viscious circle.

And in this year when the voters are looking for leadership, what have they seen from the DFL? A bunch of whiny children, holding their breath and shouting "don't wanna!"

Meanwhile, the MNGOP has spend the last three years engaged in a precinct-level grass-roots organizing effort that's unprecedented in modern political history.

The DFL doesn't realize it yet, but they're in line for a serious a**-whupping.

[Barlowmaker]

Thanks for the insights. I can't believe ANY upper Midwest state is going to go for John Kerry. This analysis has Wisconsin, Minnesota and Iowa in his camp, and I don't know what the hook would be. He's not good with farmers, hunters, blue collar union guys OR blacks. He's a gay/feminist/envirowacko/AFSCME/NEA/trial lawyer weenie. That plays in Maryland, Connecticut, Vermont and Massachussetts ... but where else?

[jdege]

Hawaii.

[justshutupandtakeit]

Today's pole reported in the Chicago Sun Times had Bush down by 5% in Illinois. If it is really this close ( I think the last gap was -13) then even this bastion of idiocy is not securely Kerryized.

[Theodore R.]

this bastion of idiocy

Cute phrase, but I don't think the superpopular Senator Durbin is laughing!

[Kahuna]

"Hawaii"



LOL!

[justshutupandtakeit]

%^&* Durbin.

[Future Useless Eater]

Small problem: we have TWO separate polls out now showing Bush up 4% in Michigan!!!

Good point! It was too late for the Beltway Boys on Saturday to have heard about that flip in MI, and I suppose it takes time for the betting pool in Ireland to catch up too. But the Michigan numbers should start showing up in Dubya's column soon.

---

Composite of trends shown graphically [dates shown are Monday dates]...
    with Beltway Boys (Saturday predictions)...
    with Tradesports (Monday predictions)...
    with FederalReview (Tuesday predictions)...

Bush	(BeltwayBoys)	(Tradesports)	(FederalReview)
Kerry	(BeltwayBoys)	(Tradesports)	(FederalReview)
	Saturday	Monday	Tuesday

01.26

02.02

02.09

02.16

02.23

03.01

03.08

03.15

03.22

03.29

04.05

04.12

04.19

04.26

05.03

prisoner story broke 4/28 and Fed.Rev added Rasmussen

05.10

05.17

[Darth Reagan]

This Tuesday's numbers to go up tonight. Bush 275 | Kerry 263.

[Barlowmaker]

My brother just e-mailed me with this from one of the local Twin City papers:

"Minnesota's unemployment rate fell in April to 4.1 percent, the largest one-month drop in the unemployment rate in state history."

You guys are rocking.

[Future Useless Eater]

thanks DR, here is the update, and watch for freepmail =============================================
Composite of trends shown graphically [dates shown are Monday dates]...
    with Beltway Boys (Saturday predictions)...
    with Tradesports (Monday predictions)...
    with FederalReview (Tuesday predictions)...

Bush	(BeltwayBoys)	(Tradesports)	(FederalReview)
Kerry	(BeltwayBoys)	(Tradesports)	(FederalReview)
	Saturday	Monday	Tuesday

01.26

02.02

02.09

02.16

02.23

03.01

03.08

03.15

03.22

03.29

04.05

04.12

04.19

04.26

05.03

prisoner story broke 4/28 and Fed.Rev added Rasmussen

05.10

05.17

[Jenya]

I live in Massachusetts. Oh, the horror, but that's another story. I'll vote (Bush), of course, but does it really matter in a way that I'm unaware of?