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2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/17/2004
TradeSports.com ^ | Monday, May 17, 2004 | Momaw Nadon

Posted on 05/17/2004 3:13:18 PM PDT by Momaw Nadon

State % Chance of Bush Winning Bush Electoral Votes Kerry Electoral Votes
Alabama 95.0 9 0
Alaska 93.0 3 0
Arizona 77.0 10 0
Arkansas 68.0 6 0
California 13.5 0 55
Colorado 83.0 9 0
Connecticut 8.0 0 7
Delaware 20.0 0 3
District of Columbia 0.5 0 3
Florida 62.0 27 0
Georgia 90.0 15 0
Hawaii 8.0 0 4
Idaho 95.0 4 0
Illinois 15.0 0 21
Indiana 88.0 11 0
Iowa 42.0 0 7
Kansas 92.0 6 0
Kentucky 89.0 8 0
Louisiana 80.0 9 0
Maine 21.0 0 4
Maryland 12.0 0 10
Massachusetts 2.0 0 12
Michigan 33.0 0 17
Minnesota 36.0 0 10
Mississippi 95.0 6 0
Missouri 63.0 11 0
Montana 92.0 3 0
Nebraska 96.0 5 0
Nevada 70.0 5 0
New Hampshire 56.0 4 0
New Jersey 14.0 0 15
New Mexico 57.0 5 0
New York 8.0 0 31
North Carolina 86.0 15 0
North Dakota 95.0 3 0
Ohio 53.0 20 0
Oklahoma 95.0 7 0
Oregon 44.0 0 7
Pennsylvania 59.0 21 0
Rhode Island 5.0 0 4
South Carolina 89.5 8 0
South Dakota 95.0 3 0
Tennessee 87.0 11 0
Texas 95.0 34 0
Utah 95.0 5 0
Vermont 6.0 0 3
Virginia 88.0 13 0
Washington 27.0 0 11
West Virginia 67.0 5 0
Wisconsin 47.0 0 10
Wyoming 95.0 3 0
Totals   304 234


TOPICS: Extended News; Front Page News; Government; Miscellaneous; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; Unclassified; Your Opinion/Questions
KEYWORDS: 2004; bush; election; electionpresident; electoral; electoralvote; electoralvotes; georgebush; georgewbush; gwb2004; president; presidentbush; presidential; vote; votes
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I went to TradeSports.com which is a futures market in which people bet on the outcomes of various things.

According to the current trading prices of the futures contracts, an estimate can be found of what traders are betting will be the outcome of 2004 Presidential Election.

If the traders are correct, President Bush would receive 304 Electoral Votes and John Kerry would receive 234 Electoral Votes.

If the weighted probabilities of President Bush winning in the states are added up, and then divided by 538, and multiplied by 100, then President Bush should get 284.80 Electoral Votes.

270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the Presidency.

Opinions and commentary are welcome.

1 posted on 05/17/2004 3:13:20 PM PDT by Momaw Nadon
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To: Momaw Nadon
Previous projections:

2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/10/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/3/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/26/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/19/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/12/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/5/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/29/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/22/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/15/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/8/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/1/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/23/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/16/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/9/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/2/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/26/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/21/2004

2 posted on 05/17/2004 3:13:39 PM PDT by Momaw Nadon (Goals for 2004: Re-elect President Bush, over 60 Republicans in the Senate, and a Republican House.)
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To: Momaw Nadon

3 posted on 05/17/2004 3:14:20 PM PDT by Momaw Nadon (Goals for 2004: Re-elect President Bush, over 60 Republicans in the Senate, and a Republican House.)
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To: Momaw Nadon

This gives one state change since 2000 (PA to Bush). That doesn't seem right, given the 304 EC vote figure.


4 posted on 05/17/2004 3:26:26 PM PDT by WinOne4TheGipper (Screw Atkins, let's go on a high CARB diet: Keep Cheney, Ashcroft, Rummy and Bush!)
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To: WinOne4TheGipper

PA is correct.


5 posted on 05/17/2004 3:28:31 PM PDT by Momaw Nadon (Goals for 2004: Re-elect President Bush, over 60 Republicans in the Senate, and a Republican House.)
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To: WinOne4TheGipper

He also gets NM...and he added some vote from redistricting...it's right.

Frankly, this is about what I would expect Nov. 2


6 posted on 05/17/2004 3:28:33 PM PDT by Keith (IT'S ABOUT THE JUDGES)
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To: WinOne4TheGipper

You forgot New Mexico and reapportionment.


7 posted on 05/17/2004 3:30:09 PM PDT by Diddle E. Squat
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To: WinOne4TheGipper

Forgot NM. Oops.


8 posted on 05/17/2004 3:30:40 PM PDT by WinOne4TheGipper (Screw Atkins, let's go on a high CARB diet: Keep Cheney, Ashcroft, Rummy and Bush!)
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To: Momaw Nadon
I redid the Monte Carlo:

  Date     Prob. Win.     Mean EV     Std. Dev.  
01/21 96.8% 341.5 41.1
01/26 95.5% 334.8 40.6
02/02 92.2% 323.8 39.7
02/09 83.0% 307.8 40.3
02/16 78.4% 300.4 39.4
02/23 76.2% 298.2 39.6
03/01 74.5% 295.9 39.3
03/08 68.0% 289.2 39.8
03/15 68.0% 288.8 39.0
03/22 68.5% 289.3 38.8
03/29 69.4% 290.1 38.8
04/05 71.2% 292.3 39.1
04/12 70.4% 290.6 38.1
04/19 68.6% 288.1 36.7
04/26 64.9% 284.5 36.3
05/03 66.3% 285.7 36.3
05/10 65.6% 285.3 36.8
05/17 65.2% 284.8 36.6

9 posted on 05/17/2004 3:31:07 PM PDT by jdege
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To: Momaw Nadon

I trust the money movers
more than thoe pollsters with agendas.
GREAT POST!


10 posted on 05/17/2004 3:32:14 PM PDT by onyx (Rummy's job is winning the war, not micro-managing some damn prison.)
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To: jdege

Thanks jdege!


11 posted on 05/17/2004 3:33:25 PM PDT by Momaw Nadon (Goals for 2004: Re-elect President Bush, over 60 Republicans in the Senate, and a Republican House.)
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To: Keith
That's what I thought last week. This week, I have the President losing Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida under intense media pressure and faux scandal.

Today we found some nonexistent weapons of mass destruction in Iraq. I'm just waiting to figure out if this actually occurred and how it will be explained in the alternative universe of Liberalism.
12 posted on 05/17/2004 3:34:05 PM PDT by dufekin (John F. Kerry. Irrational, improvident, backward, seditious.)
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To: Momaw Nadon
Latest polls shows him only 1% back in California - which is going to be a major problem for Kerry campaign financing...

And I still think Bush is going to carry Minnesota.

Pawlenty just did a briar-patch on the Senate DFL, and a lot of people are seriously fed up with the whole crowd of them.

(My mother had decided, earlier this year, that she'd have to vote for Bush - simply because she couldn't trust Kerry. She was wavering, some. But she just got that letter from the Social Security Administration...)

13 posted on 05/17/2004 3:34:55 PM PDT by jdege
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To: Momaw Nadon

Swing states:

Bush lean
OH 53%
NH 56
NM 57
PA 59
FL 62
MO 63
WV 67
AR 68
NV 70

Kerry lean
WI 47
OR 44
IA 42
MN 36
MI 33

Bush could lose OH, NH, and NM and still win. Of course its all not quite that simple, but some perspective.


14 posted on 05/17/2004 3:36:07 PM PDT by Diddle E. Squat
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To: Momaw Nadon
One thing I do not understand about the prices of the futures contract is that Bush's contract trades around 56 and JF'in Kerry's contract is around 97. Should not Bush's contract value be higher than JFK if GWB is favored? I suppose the fact that the volume of GWB contracts is three times the number of JFK contracts account for this. However, I don't understand why there would not be an equal number of contracts.

As an aside, I notice there are contracts for the LA Lakers to win the NBA championship--alas, if I only bought some a week ago (and invested in Micro $oft in 1987)

15 posted on 05/17/2004 4:34:33 PM PDT by eeman
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To: eeman

I've said it before and I'll say it again...All of us in flyover country need to have more children. It's the population in the metro areas that are the problem. LOL


16 posted on 05/17/2004 5:00:50 PM PDT by GOP_Proud (Those who preach tolerance seem to have the least for my views.)
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To: Momaw Nadon

On April 26, tradesports.com had Bush at 314 EVs...since that week, Bush has held at 304 EVs.


17 posted on 05/17/2004 5:20:37 PM PDT by Recovering_Democrat (I'm so glad to no longer be associated with the Party of Dependence on Government!)
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To: jdege

Do you put Minnesota as securely in the Kerry camp as this wagering outfit does?


18 posted on 05/17/2004 5:22:23 PM PDT by Barlowmaker
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To: onyx
I trust the money movers more than thoe pollsters with agendas.

One of life's simple truths is: Money talks, bull feces walks.

19 posted on 05/17/2004 5:25:35 PM PDT by Vigilantcitizen (Don’t go around stating the world owes you a living; the world owes you nothing; it was here first.)
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To: eeman
One thing I do not understand about the prices of the futures contract is that Bush's contract trades around 56 and JF'in Kerry's contract is around 97.

The JFK contract you are referring to is for JFK to be the democratic nominee. There is no JFK presidential contract.
20 posted on 05/17/2004 5:33:30 PM PDT by Deek
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