[Momaw Nadon]

I went to TradeSports.com which is a futures market in which people bet on the outcomes of various things.

According to the current trading prices of the futures contracts, an estimate can be found of what traders are betting will be the outcome of 2004 Presidential Election.

If the traders are correct, President Bush would receive 304 Electoral Votes and John Kerry would receive 234 Electoral Votes.

If the weighted probabilities of President Bush winning in the states are added up, and then divided by 538, and multiplied by 100, then President Bush should get 284.80 Electoral Votes.

270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the Presidency.

Opinions and commentary are welcome.

[Momaw Nadon]

Previous projections:

2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/10/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/3/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/26/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/19/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/12/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/5/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/29/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/22/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/15/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/8/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/1/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/23/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/16/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/9/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/2/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/26/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/21/2004

[Momaw Nadon]

[jdege]

I redid the Monte Carlo:

Date	Prob. Win.	Mean EV	Std. Dev.
01/21	96.8%	341.5	41.1
01/26	95.5%	334.8	40.6
02/02	92.2%	323.8	39.7
02/09	83.0%	307.8	40.3
02/16	78.4%	300.4	39.4
02/23	76.2%	298.2	39.6
03/01	74.5%	295.9	39.3
03/08	68.0%	289.2	39.8
03/15	68.0%	288.8	39.0
03/22	68.5%	289.3	38.8
03/29	69.4%	290.1	38.8
04/05	71.2%	292.3	39.1
04/12	70.4%	290.6	38.1
04/19	68.6%	288.1	36.7
04/26	64.9%	284.5	36.3
05/03	66.3%	285.7	36.3
05/10	65.6%	285.3	36.8
05/17	65.2%	284.8	36.6

[onyx]

I trust the money movers
more than thoe pollsters with agendas.
GREAT POST!

[Diddle E. Squat]

Swing states:

Bush lean
OH 53%
NH 56
NM 57
PA 59
FL 62
MO 63
WV 67
AR 68
NV 70

Kerry lean
WI 47
OR 44
IA 42
MN 36
MI 33

Bush could lose OH, NH, and NM and still win. Of course its all not quite that simple, but some perspective.

[eeman]

One thing I do not understand about the prices of the futures contract is that Bush's contract trades around 56 and JF'in Kerry's contract is around 97. Should not Bush's contract value be higher than JFK if GWB is favored? I suppose the fact that the volume of GWB contracts is three times the number of JFK contracts account for this. However, I don't understand why there would not be an equal number of contracts.

As an aside, I notice there are contracts for the LA Lakers to win the NBA championship--alas, if I only bought some a week ago (and invested in Micro $oft in 1987)

[Recovering_Democrat]

On April 26, tradesports.com had Bush at 314 EVs...since that week, Bush has held at 304 EVs.