Posted on 02/29/2016 5:04:20 PM PST by SatinDoll
A new CNN/ORC national poll (full pdf below) is being highlighted in the media discussion based on the top-line results: Donald Trump 49% !
However, thats not the real headline in the data. The real lead story should be the damage Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz have done to themselves as they continue a scorched-earth campaign.
The first signals of a backlash appeared over the weekends polling when it became clear Senator Rubio and Senator Cruz where losing support at an exponential rate the longer they continued to make unfounded accusations. Donald Trump and Ben Carson are benefactors of the Rubio/Cruz kamikaze mission:
[See poll data here]
Theres an increased possibility Cruz may lose Texas if enough Trump supporters can turn out in any similar proportion to previous state turnouts. Ted Cruz entire campaign apparatus has fallen back upon Texas, and his latest rally (today) drew only a few hundred supporters.
It is increasingly improbable to project Ted Cruz as the likely winner of Texas when all other Super-Tuesday polling, and national polling, shows an entirely divergent reality.
Via CNN Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton are poised to lead the nations two major parties in this falls presidential election, with a new nationwide CNN/ORC poll finding each well ahead of their closest competitors just as the race expands to a national stage.
Trump has expanded his lead over the diminished field to capture the support of nearly half of Republican voters, while Clinton tops Sanders by nearly 20 points.
On the Republican side, the new survey finds Trumps lead is dominant, and his support tops that of his four remaining opponents combined. The businessman tops his nearest competitor by more than 30 points: 49% back Trump, 16% Marco Rubio, 15% Ted Cruz, 10% Ben Carson and 6% John Kasich.
Trumps supporters are incredibly enthusiastic about the coming election, and largely committed in their support for him. Nearly 8 in 10 say that they are more enthusiastic about voting this year than in previous elections, among Republicans who are not supporting Trump, just 39% say they are more enthusiastic than in years past.
Likewise, 78% of Trumps backers say they will definitely support him vs. 22% who say they could still change their minds. Among those backing other candidates, 57% say they are committed to their chosen candidate.
The survey asked those Republicans not currently backing Trump whether they would support him if he became the partys nominee, and just a quarter of Republicans overall say they probably or definitely wouldnt support him in November. Thats about the same as the share saying they wouldnt back Rubio or Cruz.
Trump train is unstoppable!
Death to the Uniparty!
I'll be glad to see that creepy guy gone
350 people were polled, according to Rush....not enough to warrant those hyper-ventilating headlines.
“according to Rush”
I remember when that used to mean something.
Marco & Teddy, the love that dare not speak its name , is bombing? Wow, I’m surprised...
It will be shocking if Trump wins Texas. I doubt he will.
I do not know if it is true, but what I do know that if it is true then I am not surprised, because that last debate was ridiculous.
Rubio made a mockery of it, before that debate the crowd made a mockery of it, which was done by the establishment.
If the poll just before election day has a sudden shift, it means the pollsters were lying before.
Cruz trying to run as anti-establishment ATTACKING disgracefully the epitome of an anti-establishment candidate in Donald Trump wasn’t a good plan.
Not surprising.
When Rubio and Cruz started to act like Trump they lost a lot of people who were only supporting them because they were not Trump.
1010 adults. 920 registered voters
Contrary to the TV talking heads and political pundits I thought Ben Carson came in second to Trump at the last “debate,” ahead of the two yapping Chihuahuas and The Ohio Chopper.
It’s game over if Texas goes Trump. It’s a great thought but I won’t bet the farm.
One thing, for sure. Neither one has core beliefs that govern their actions.
Cruz and Rubio most certainly cannot. Trump can be Don Rickles and Cruz/Rubio are Dan Quayle.
Interviews with 1,001 adult Americans conducted by telephone by ORC International on February 24 - 27, 2016. The margin of sampling error for results based on the total sample is plus or minus 3 percentage points. The sample also includes 920 interviews among registered voters (plus or minus 3 percentage points). This sample includes 600 interviews among landline respondents and 401 interviews among cell phone respondent
Going wholly negative wrecked Rubio. He simply cannot pull it off.
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