Posted on 02/28/2016 8:36:07 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet
If Donald Trump wins the Republican presidential primary, he is almost a shoo-in to win the presidency this November, a Stony Brook University professor predicts.
Professor Helmut Norpoth's statistical model, which looks at a candidate's performance in their party's presidential primary and factors in the broader electoral cycle, shows that Trump has a 97 percent chance of beating Hillary Clinton in the general election, reported Stony Brook's newspaper The Statesman. His odds rise to 99 percent against Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders.
The professor of political science presented his 2016 forecast at the SUNY Global Center in Manhattan on Monday.
"Trump beats Hillary 54.7 percent to 45.3 percent. This is almost too much to believe," Norpoth said as he showed his forecast for that potential matchup, using data from the New Hampshire and South Carolina primaries. "The probability of that [outcome] is almost complete certainty, 97 percent. It's almost 'Take it to the bank.'"
The model's high confidence in a Trump win is due to his relatively high success so far, Norporth said. The model also factors in the electoral cycle, which makes it difficult for a party to hold the White House three terms in a row, as the Democrats are trying to do in 2016....
(Excerpt) Read more at newsday.com ...
Thanks for the ping, AW!
We'll see if he actually does that. Trump hasn't dug deep on opposition research other than the main talking points he's used against Cruz. At his rally yesterday, it was the first time I saw him refer to notes he had written with a list of Rubio opposition research.
He's going to have to sharpen his knife against Hillary.
She'll be playing the race card, the women card, and any other card in her crooked deck.
We are in deep do do.If Sessions thought the Republicans would avoid a brokered convention by endorsing Trump he might be right. But percentage wise he has been running thus far never broke over 40%. He was wrong.
The democrats are going to throwing everything at this guy some of which was exposed at that last debate. These charges should have even been considered by his limited supporters along with his 60% dissapproval rating.
Most of which are conservatives who really do not trust or like him . What he will be shooting for and aiming for is denocrat lite. Which he demonstrated in the Iowa campaign with his position on ethanol. Really no change in the system and will go left in this campaign.
He has sucessfully killed any conservative movement and it will be a replay of the last election when as projected he takes the south. .
you like those odds? Should have placed a few bucks down when the bookies were giving 7:1 against Trump to take it all the way.
That's 6/10.
That's 3/5.
60% Hillary vs 40% Trump is a BLOWOUT
Thank you, Eyedigress, and to elaborate on your comments vs. Washi:
Funny, I had a hard time finding the actual numbers of voters in South Carolina for Hillary. Seems all the news sources only want to report percentages for the Dim race. Imagine that.
But a little persistence paid off. It seems Trump got fewer total votes than Hillary in his respective primary in SC (271k to his 238k), where Hillary campaigned heavily (reflected in her lopsided percentages vs. daBern).
But that's only half the story. The TOTAL number of votes between the two Dims was about 271,500 plus 96,000 equaling around 367,500.
The total among the Republicans was 238,000 plus 168,000 plus 164,000 plus 57,000 plus 56,000 plus 53,000, equals about 733,000. Again, the Dim TOTAL was about 367,500.
That's almost exactly a TWO TO ONE TURNOUT RATIO in SC, Republicans to Dims.
So, at least in SC, unless you're stupid enough, or brainwashed-by-the-disinfomedia enough to think a vast majority of non-Trump voters will refuse to vote for Trump AND THEN cross over to vote for Clinton then SC is the exact OPPOSITE of a "blowout" for Hildebeast.
Put another way, only 1 in 15 (33,000 of 495,000) non-Trump voters in SC would have to vote for him in the general election to equal Hildebeast's votes.
There are all kinds of articles out there and rumors about Romney, Cabana Boy & Cruz, Koch Bros and GOPe conspiring :(
“If it looks like Hillary is going to lose, they can Torch her and bring in Biden”
Which is exactly what’s going to happen.
L
It takes a few minutes but diligence pays off.
SC is not in play.
Nice Job and thanks for taking the time.
+5 in my book.
Well said.
From yet another perspective, even if EVERY daBern primary voter in SC (96,000) switched to Hildebeast in the general, only ONE in FIVE non-Trump voters (totaling 495,000) from the primary would have to switch to Trump to even the numbers.
It's a slam dunk, in a state where she invested heavily.
Trump is more popular with GOP voters today than he was six months ago. He's almost unique in his ability to substantially improve his approval rating, something pollsters call impossible.
You're using the arguments that apply to losers like Jeb, Mitt and McCain to an unprecedented movement candidate, the GOP's own version of Obama.
Trump will crush anyone they put up against him.
His model must not properly account for the number of dead people that vote every four years.
How did that work out?
Not well at all.
Even in California where idiots vote for the American Independent Party candidate, not because they agree with the party, but because they think that as Independent voters they should vote for the party with Independent in their name, even here the third parties got very few votes.
Most Pubbies, whether conservative true believers or GOPe drones, will vote for whatever candidate is served up by the party even if it is Trump or Cruz who are both supposedly despised by so many.
People who took the time to vote in the primary, are definitely going to vote in the final election. So I don't even think the Republicans have to worry about voters sitting on their hands and staying home.
About the only thing the GOPe could do to screw things up is try and run a last minute Romney campaign, or try to hijack the convention and stick the Republicans with Ryan or some other traitor.
I also think that the fear of a socialist or criminal in the Whitehouse will get even the most reticent Republicans to show up and pull the lever for the guy with the 'R' after his name.
I also think that the fear of a socialist or criminal in the Whitehouse will get even the most reticent Republicans to show up and pull the lever for the guy with the 'R' after his name.
Yes. And I think there are many current officeholder Republicans that would rather accept Hildebeast as the president than vote for Trump (I'm sure you're familiar with the moves favoring a brokered convention). They think they can work with her (not in our interest, of course, but theirs). But, the opposite is true among the general electorate -- they will rally around Trump as the nominee much more willingly than the GOP-e. Such is the state of disconnect between the GOP-e and the base. The massive Republican primary turnout numbers are an early indication of this fact.
Remember when Jeb! first pondered running in 2014, he imprudently confided that the trick to securing the nomination was to be “willing to lose the primary to win the general”. This perfectly epitomizes the hubris of the GOP establishment. But they have not yet learned their lesson, and it seems the more influential the leadership in the GOP, the more likely they are to stubbornly neglect the obvious truth.
This is not the year of the establishment Republican, but few of them have yet accepted this verity.
HAHA The computer model was not told about dead people voting in Chicago, which placed Illinois in JFK win column. That was enough to give JFK electoral win in 1960.
Very good Analysis by the numbers!
This is also a big reason the GOPe does not want Trump to be the candidate.
With Trump, it’s The Art of the Deal.
With the Clinton’s, it’s the art of the steal.
Not only can the Rats win 3 in a row in the new America, they can win 10 in a row.
He was on Fox a few days ago...don't remember what show.
This clown also predicated that Bush-43 would lose in 2000...
..., ..., hmmmm, ..., ...
...come to think of it, Bush did lose that election, at least he lost the popular vote by quite a bit.
Now it’s starting to make sense as to why the Democrats are in a TOTAL PANIC mode.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.