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Stony Brook professor: If Donald Trump gets Republican nomination, he'll win presidency
Newsday ^ | February 27, 2016 | Edward B. Colby

Posted on 02/28/2016 8:36:07 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet

If Donald Trump wins the Republican presidential primary, he is almost a shoo-in to win the presidency this November, a Stony Brook University professor predicts.

Professor Helmut Norpoth's statistical model, which looks at a candidate's performance in their party's presidential primary and factors in the broader electoral cycle, shows that Trump has a 97 percent chance of beating Hillary Clinton in the general election, reported Stony Brook's newspaper The Statesman. His odds rise to 99 percent against Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders.

The professor of political science presented his 2016 forecast at the SUNY Global Center in Manhattan on Monday.

"Trump beats Hillary 54.7 percent to 45.3 percent. This is almost too much to believe," Norpoth said as he showed his forecast for that potential matchup, using data from the New Hampshire and South Carolina primaries. "The probability of that [outcome] is almost complete certainty, 97 percent. It's almost 'Take it to the bank.'"

The model's high confidence in a Trump win is due to his relatively high success so far, Norporth said. The model also factors in the electoral cycle, which makes it difficult for a party to hold the White House three terms in a row, as the Democrats are trying to do in 2016....

(Excerpt) Read more at newsday.com ...


TOPICS: New York; Campaign News; Parties; Polls
KEYWORDS: 2016election; election2016; helmutnorpoth; newyork; norpoth; primarymodel; stonybrook; stonybrookuniversity; trump
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To: Albion Wilde

Thanks for the ping, AW!


21 posted on 02/28/2016 9:46:42 PM PST by Jane Long (Go Trump, go! Make America Safe Again :)
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To: Parley Baer
I have no doubt. Trump will go back through Hillary’s record page by page and bring it all back to the for front.

We'll see if he actually does that. Trump hasn't dug deep on opposition research other than the main talking points he's used against Cruz. At his rally yesterday, it was the first time I saw him refer to notes he had written with a list of Rubio opposition research.

He's going to have to sharpen his knife against Hillary.

She'll be playing the race card, the women card, and any other card in her crooked deck.

22 posted on 02/28/2016 9:46:55 PM PST by The Iceman Cometh (Ted Cruz & Marco Rubio - Amnesty Pimps)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

We are in deep do do.If Sessions thought the Republicans would avoid a brokered convention by endorsing Trump he might be right. But percentage wise he has been running thus far never broke over 40%. He was wrong.

The democrats are going to throwing everything at this guy some of which was exposed at that last debate. These charges should have even been considered by his limited supporters along with his 60% dissapproval rating.

Most of which are conservatives who really do not trust or like him . What he will be shooting for and aiming for is denocrat lite. Which he demonstrated in the Iowa campaign with his position on ethanol. Really no change in the system and will go left in this campaign.

He has sucessfully killed any conservative movement and it will be a replay of the last election when as projected he takes the south. .


23 posted on 02/28/2016 9:53:37 PM PST by mosesdapoet (My best insights get lost in FR's becaus e of meaningless venting no one reads.)
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To: bigbob

you like those odds? Should have placed a few bucks down when the bookies were giving 7:1 against Trump to take it all the way.


24 posted on 02/28/2016 10:08:28 PM PST by going hot (Happiness is a Momma Deuce)
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To: Washi; eyedigress; bigbob; 2ndDivisionVet; Lurker; Albion Wilde; Chad_the_Impaler; ...
1/3 of the Dem electorate showed up in SC. 60% of EVERYONE dislikes Trump.

That's 6/10.

That's 3/5.

60% Hillary vs 40% Trump is a BLOWOUT

Thank you, Eyedigress, and to elaborate on your comments vs. Washi:

Funny, I had a hard time finding the actual numbers of voters in South Carolina for Hillary. Seems all the news sources only want to report percentages for the Dim race. Imagine that.

But a little persistence paid off. It seems Trump got fewer total votes than Hillary in his respective primary in SC (271k to his 238k), where Hillary campaigned heavily (reflected in her lopsided percentages vs. daBern).

But that's only half the story. The TOTAL number of votes between the two Dims was about 271,500 plus 96,000 equaling around 367,500.

The total among the Republicans was 238,000 plus 168,000 plus 164,000 plus 57,000 plus 56,000 plus 53,000, equals about 733,000. Again, the Dim TOTAL was about 367,500.

That's almost exactly a TWO TO ONE TURNOUT RATIO in SC, Republicans to Dims.

So, at least in SC, unless you're stupid enough, or brainwashed-by-the-disinfomedia enough to think a vast majority of non-Trump voters will refuse to vote for Trump AND THEN cross over to vote for Clinton then SC is the exact OPPOSITE of a "blowout" for Hildebeast.

Put another way, only 1 in 15 (33,000 of 495,000) non-Trump voters in SC would have to vote for him in the general election to equal Hildebeast's votes.

25 posted on 02/28/2016 10:23:20 PM PST by zipper (In their heart of hearts, all Democrats are communists)
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To: bigbob

There are all kinds of articles out there and rumors about Romney, Cabana Boy & Cruz, Koch Bros and GOPe conspiring :(


26 posted on 02/28/2016 10:26:02 PM PST by Freedom56v2 (I stand with Sheriff Joe, Phyllis Schlafly, Jerry Falwell Jr, Sarah Palin, Pat Robertson, Willie :))
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To: Chad_the_Impaler

“If it looks like Hillary is going to lose, they can Torch her and bring in Biden”

Which is exactly what’s going to happen.

L


27 posted on 02/28/2016 10:29:13 PM PST by Lurker (Violence is rarely the answer. But when it is it is the only answer.)
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To: zipper

It takes a few minutes but diligence pays off.

SC is not in play.

Nice Job and thanks for taking the time.

+5 in my book.


28 posted on 02/28/2016 10:30:00 PM PST by eyedigress ((Old storm chaser from the west))
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To: eyedigress
SC is not in play.

Well said.

From yet another perspective, even if EVERY daBern primary voter in SC (96,000) switched to Hildebeast in the general, only ONE in FIVE non-Trump voters (totaling 495,000) from the primary would have to switch to Trump to even the numbers.

It's a slam dunk, in a state where she invested heavily.

29 posted on 02/28/2016 10:39:00 PM PST by zipper (In their heart of hearts, all Democrats are communists)
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To: Washi
60% of EVERYONE dislikes Trump.

Trump is more popular with GOP voters today than he was six months ago. He's almost unique in his ability to substantially improve his approval rating, something pollsters call impossible.

You're using the arguments that apply to losers like Jeb, Mitt and McCain to an unprecedented movement candidate, the GOP's own version of Obama.

Trump will crush anyone they put up against him.

30 posted on 02/28/2016 11:14:16 PM PST by MaxFlint
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To: Grampa Dave
"with the notable exception of the 1960 election"

His model must not properly account for the number of dead people that vote every four years.

31 posted on 02/28/2016 11:30:23 PM PST by who_would_fardels_bear
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To: zipper
When Dole, Romney, and McCain were the Republican candidates there were many such as myself who refused to support them and vocally encouraged Republicans to vote third party.

How did that work out?

Not well at all.

Even in California where idiots vote for the American Independent Party candidate, not because they agree with the party, but because they think that as Independent voters they should vote for the party with Independent in their name, even here the third parties got very few votes.

Most Pubbies, whether conservative true believers or GOPe drones, will vote for whatever candidate is served up by the party even if it is Trump or Cruz who are both supposedly despised by so many.

People who took the time to vote in the primary, are definitely going to vote in the final election. So I don't even think the Republicans have to worry about voters sitting on their hands and staying home.

About the only thing the GOPe could do to screw things up is try and run a last minute Romney campaign, or try to hijack the convention and stick the Republicans with Ryan or some other traitor.

I also think that the fear of a socialist or criminal in the Whitehouse will get even the most reticent Republicans to show up and pull the lever for the guy with the 'R' after his name.

32 posted on 02/28/2016 11:39:09 PM PST by who_would_fardels_bear
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To: who_would_fardels_bear
About the only thing the GOPe could do to screw things up is try and run a last minute Romney campaign, or try to hijack the convention and stick the Republicans with Ryan or some other traitor.

I also think that the fear of a socialist or criminal in the Whitehouse will get even the most reticent Republicans to show up and pull the lever for the guy with the 'R' after his name.

Yes. And I think there are many current officeholder Republicans that would rather accept Hildebeast as the president than vote for Trump (I'm sure you're familiar with the moves favoring a brokered convention). They think they can work with her (not in our interest, of course, but theirs). But, the opposite is true among the general electorate -- they will rally around Trump as the nominee much more willingly than the GOP-e. Such is the state of disconnect between the GOP-e and the base. The massive Republican primary turnout numbers are an early indication of this fact.

Remember when Jeb! first pondered running in 2014, he imprudently confided that the trick to securing the nomination was to be “willing to lose the primary to win the general”. This perfectly epitomizes the hubris of the GOP establishment. But they have not yet learned their lesson, and it seems the more influential the leadership in the GOP, the more likely they are to stubbornly neglect the obvious truth.

This is not the year of the establishment Republican, but few of them have yet accepted this verity.

33 posted on 02/29/2016 12:26:20 AM PST by zipper (In their heart of hearts, all Democrats are communists)
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To: Grampa Dave

HAHA The computer model was not told about dead people voting in Chicago, which placed Illinois in JFK win column. That was enough to give JFK electoral win in 1960.


34 posted on 02/29/2016 12:42:02 AM PST by entropy12 (When you vote, you are actually voting for the rich donors!)
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To: zipper

Very good Analysis by the numbers!


35 posted on 02/29/2016 12:46:18 AM PST by entropy12 (When you vote, you are actually voting for the rich donors!)
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To: Lurker; 2ndDivisionVet
Trump is going to annihilate Hillary. Which is why she will not be the Dem nominee.

This is also a big reason the GOPe does not want Trump to be the candidate.

36 posted on 02/29/2016 2:55:45 AM PST by GGpaX4DumpedTea (I am a Tea Party descendant...steeped in the Constitutional Republic given to us by the Founders)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

With Trump, it’s The Art of the Deal.

With the Clinton’s, it’s the art of the steal.


37 posted on 02/29/2016 2:58:55 AM PST by r_barton (GO TRUMP!!!)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
Anyone who talks about election cycles and parties not holding three consecutive terms, etc, forgets that there is a new country voting in every election. And by new country, I mean a less-white country, due to our massive ceaseless population transfers from the third world.

Not only can the Rats win 3 in a row in the new America, they can win 10 in a row.

38 posted on 02/29/2016 3:03:15 AM PST by Dagnabitt (Islamic Immigration is Treason)
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To: bray; 2ndDivisionVet
This guy has zero chance of getting on Fox.

He was on Fox a few days ago...don't remember what show.

39 posted on 02/29/2016 3:05:23 AM PST by GGpaX4DumpedTea (I am a Tea Party descendant...steeped in the Constitutional Republic given to us by the Founders)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

This clown also predicated that Bush-43 would lose in 2000...

..., ..., hmmmm, ..., ...

...come to think of it, Bush did lose that election, at least he lost the popular vote by quite a bit.

Now it’s starting to make sense as to why the Democrats are in a TOTAL PANIC mode.


40 posted on 02/29/2016 4:20:49 AM PST by BobL (Who cares? He's going to build a wall and stop this invasion.)
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