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Posted on 11/12/2026 3:09:04 AM PST by Cronos
Europe stands on the brink of a structural shift in its energy landscape. In the first nine months of 2026, electric vehicles (EVs) accounted for 24.2% of all new car sales across the continent, marking a 41.9% surge compared to 2025. In September 2026, that market share climbed as high as 30.5%. This momentum is no passing anomaly; it is the direct result of targeted policy interventions, technological advances, and evolving consumer behavior.
The electrification of passenger road transport is striking at the very core of the oil sector. Globally, EVs now displace 1.2 million barrels of oil per day—a fivefold increase compared to 2021. The shift is particularly striking given that while EVs currently represent only 4.2% of the global vehicle fleet, they already command 25% of all new vehicle sales.
In Europe, the impact is even more acute: across the European Union, the market share of pure petrol cars slipped to 21.2%, while diesel plummeted to a historic low of 7.1%. For the oil industry, this translates into a structural decline in demand for transport fuels, a sector that has traditionally been its most dependable revenue driver.
Europe’s heavyweight automotive markets are picking up speed as well. France recorded a 79.1% jump in EV sales in 2026, pushing its market share to 31.4%. Germany followed with a 58.1% gain, lifting its share to 27.2%.
The transition to electric mobility appears irreversible and is set to accelerate further in the years ahead. In 2026, EVs officially surpassed petrol to become Europe’s best-selling powertrain. Looking further out, BEVs are projected to displace up to 5.8 million barrels of oil per day worldwide by 2034, a seismic shift that could dramatically bolster Europe’s energy independence.
(Excerpt) Read more at ioplus.nl ...
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net-net this will reduce the EU's dependence on M-E or Russian oil.
Why is this good.
We have been sold a bill of goods.
In the first nine months of 2026, electric vehicles (EVs) accounted for 24.2% of all new car sales across the continent, marking a 41.9% surge compared to 2025. In September 2026, that market share climbed as high as 30.5%. This momentum is no passing anomaly; it is the direct result of targeted policy interventions, technological advances, and evolving consumer behavior.
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No passing anomaly? Maybe, just maybe, it has just a tiny, tiny little bit to do with the current high cost of gasoline and diesel? Just sayin’.
https://autos.yahoo.com/ev-and-future-tech/articles/australias-ev-share-car-sales-095700890.html
this article is for Australia, but the same maxim holds to answer your question “No passing anomaly? Maybe, just maybe, it has just a tiny, tiny little bit to do with the current high cost of gasoline and diesel? Just sayin’.”
from the article:
“I think Australians largely just had enough with the volatility of oil prices,”
According to Khoury, after an initial surge following the start of the Iran war, pump prices fell below prewar levels in July as the government temporarily halved the fuel excise and a 60-day ceasefire helped bring down oil prices. Despite the lower fuel prices, EV sales remained strong.
“Throughout that whole period, we’ve consistently seen EV sales increasing,” Khoury said. “So, is everyone going to rush out and buy a petrol car or diesel car if they declared the Iran war over tomorrow? It’s unlikely.”
Volatility and ubiquity are two reasons.
Then for most of the EU - they don’t have their own oil, so a movement away from imported oil will increase a sense fo national security
Why is this good?
imho
1. less leverage by oil producing countries - maybe even bankrupt the ME petro-states
2. less fluctuations in oil prices
3. vehicles that must run on oil - say trucks in rural or semi-rural areas will get lower and more stable prices
4. other products made from petroleum will have their prices stabilize in process
Could be. But how are they going to generate the electricity for all the new EVs. Europe already has some of the highest electricity prices in the world and this will drive them higher, especially if they are using wind and solar, the most expensive sources for electricity.
The high cost of electricity doesn’t hold them back?
Also aren’t there still incentives?
> This is of course for the EU, not for the USA which has different conditions.<
Most certainly.
You can drive across any country in Europe with just one recharge. The UK is the biggest at 830 miles, but that is four separate countries.
France 700 mi
Germany 500 mi
Spain 600 mi
By comparison, Texas is 837 miles, Florida is 750 and California is 820 miles.
The US is 3000 miles east to west and 2000 north to south.
EC
Emphasis on targeted policy interventions. Meaning government mandates and freedom crushing regulations. Take that out of the equation and EVs are no longer eroding the oil industry.
There are a few problems with this rosy scenario.
1. Electric cars don't do so well in the cold and large parts of Europe get quite cold in the winter.
2. Yes, it will reduce Europe's dependence on foreign oil....at the cost of increasing Europe's dependence on China instead. China has an effective monopoly on the production of rare earth magnets. Since the process is filthy, the Europeans have no chance of escaping China's monopoly on batteries or rare earth magnets - Gaia wouldn't approve. Which is better, being dependent on a variety of foreign countries for oil or being dependent on China alone?
Side note, the US only makes 20% of the rare earth magnets it uses but has been taking steps to rectify this for a few years now. "Under standard projected NdPr oxide outputs from domestic projects (like Mountain Pass and White Mesa), production could meet about 68.5% of projected 2030 domestic demand. Under an optimistic scenario where key facilities reach 100% design capacity, output could approach 86% of projected demand." The EU needs to implement a similar program to free itself from dependence on China as soon as possible.
Chinese electric vehicles (which are massively subsidized by the state and in which they have a massive glut of vehicles) have invaded the market in the EU and have already captured 10-15% of the EU market for EVs. That is projected to grow rapidly. Chinese EVs are expected to capture at least 30% of the EU market by 2030........is the EU really going to be better off when a much larger portion of car sales come not from European domestic producers (especially German) but instead from China?
Chinese EVs are banned in the US. The EU needs to follow suit to save its domestic auto industry.
P.S. we haven’t even talked about the cost of electricity. In Germany, electricity is currently THREE TIMES as expensive as in the US.....so relying on EVs is not going to allow the EU to escape the massive harm caused by Gaia worship.
How many people drive cross country regularly though? The average miles driven in a day is less than 40. The overwhelming majority of people would be able to drive several days to and from work without recharging.
you are half-right on short-term consumer elasticity, and flatly wrong on global structural economics.
In the North American market—where average EV stickers still carry roughly a $9,000 upfront premium over internal combustion equivalents and gasoline remains relatively cheap—subsidies were acting as a direct price bridge. Remove the subsidy, and marginal retail buyers walk away.
The thing is that the American retail market does NOT dictate global oil demand - it has am impact but does not directly determine.
There are other fatxctors to consider like:
1. Battery costs are down - the latest was something like $100/kWh - down over 90% since 2010. Once an electric drivetrain reaches upfront price parity, subsidies become irrelevant.
2. the poorer markets dont’ care about western mandates — look at SouthEast asia (Evs are 20% market share), Latam 975%), and also the richer non-non-American west like Australia and the EU. In those countries that import refined petroleum, electricity is vastly cheaper per kilometer than gasoline. Fleet operators and middle-class buyers do basic arithmetic: lower fuel cost + 40% fewer moving parts = higher return on capital.
3. The global EV fleet is already displacing roughly 1.7 million barrels of oil per day. even if ALL the mandates were removed globally, the sunk CapEx in battery gigafactories, existing vehicle stock turnover, and high fuel prices from Middle East supply shockslock in permanent demand destruction for refined petroleum.
Hey look - for you, it’s GOOD, you get lower prices of petrol at the tank and wars in the ME or wherever aren’t going to affect you much. Folks who drive only short distances like the western Europe or the eastern US seaboard or Cal, can get their EVs and reduce the price of gas for YOU
“net-net this will reduce the EU’s dependence on M-E or Russian oil.”
Nope. Petro is used in many things, cars just being one of them. Life will only get more expensive for them. The electricity producers LOVE the idea of a monopoly.
But they are not a good fit for Europe's power grid which is totally inadequate to power EVs in a massive scale,
Something has to power all that electricity required to charge those vehicles and it ain’t wind and solar.
Europe doesn't have high retail electricity prices because of wind and solar; it has high prices because of fossil fuel dependency and taxes. Under Europe’s "merit-order" pricing system, the wholesale price of electricity is set by the last power plant needed to meet demand—which is almost always an imported natural gas plant. When gas prices spike (like during the 2022 Russian cutoff or the 2026 Hormuz disruptions), gas sets the price for the entire grid, even when cheap wind and solar are running at full blast. In fact, whenever wind and solar generation surge in Europe, wholesale electricity prices frequently crash to zero or even go negative
remember that most EV charging happens at home or other places overnight, using the chap, surplus power that was built for the surge in the afternoon-early-evening peak demand.
Evne if you electrify ALL the current number of passenger cars in the EU, that adds in 15% more electricity demand - but that instantaneous switch isn't going to happen, so grids have the time to cope - and they should push for more nuk and coal plants
EVs now displace 1.2 million barrels of oil per day
In euroland how is this energy being replaced are shortages doing a good job? It is the socialist way.
Germany short picked a great time to destroy its nuclear and coal-fired electricity plants.
Don’t forget the specter of climate change.
That has gripped the EU way more than the US.
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