EVs are eroding the oil industry

IOplus ^ | 12th November 2026

[Cronos]

Europe stands on the brink of a structural shift in its energy landscape. In the first nine months of 2026, electric vehicles (EVs) accounted for 24.2% of all new car sales across the continent, marking a 41.9% surge compared to 2025. In September 2026, that market share climbed as high as 30.5%. This momentum is no passing anomaly; it is the direct result of targeted policy interventions, technological advances, and evolving consumer behavior.

The electrification of passenger road transport is striking at the very core of the oil sector. Globally, EVs now displace 1.2 million barrels of oil per day—a fivefold increase compared to 2021. The shift is particularly striking given that while EVs currently represent only 4.2% of the global vehicle fleet, they already command 25% of all new vehicle sales.

In Europe, the impact is even more acute: across the European Union, the market share of pure petrol cars slipped to 21.2%, while diesel plummeted to a historic low of 7.1%. For the oil industry, this translates into a structural decline in demand for transport fuels, a sector that has traditionally been its most dependable revenue driver.

Europe’s heavyweight automotive markets are picking up speed as well. France recorded a 79.1% jump in EV sales in 2026, pushing its market share to 31.4%. Germany followed with a 58.1% gain, lifting its share to 27.2%.

The transition to electric mobility appears irreversible and is set to accelerate further in the years ahead. In 2026, EVs officially surpassed petrol to become Europe’s best-selling powertrain. Looking further out, BEVs are projected to displace up to 5.8 million barrels of oil per day worldwide by 2034, a seismic shift that could dramatically bolster Europe’s energy independence.

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TOPICS: Business/Economy
KEYWORDS:

[Cronos]

This is of course for the EU, not for the USA which has different conditions.

net-net this will reduce the EU's dependence on M-E or Russian oil.

[riverrunner]

Why is this good.

We have been sold a bill of goods.

[House Atreides]

In the first nine months of 2026, electric vehicles (EVs) accounted for 24.2% of all new car sales across the continent, marking a 41.9% surge compared to 2025. In September 2026, that market share climbed as high as 30.5%. This momentum is no passing anomaly; it is the direct result of targeted policy interventions, technological advances, and evolving consumer behavior.
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No passing anomaly? Maybe, just maybe, it has just a tiny, tiny little bit to do with the current high cost of gasoline and diesel? Just sayin’.

[Cronos]

https://autos.yahoo.com/ev-and-future-tech/articles/australias-ev-share-car-sales-095700890.html

this article is for Australia, but the same maxim holds to answer your question “No passing anomaly? Maybe, just maybe, it has just a tiny, tiny little bit to do with the current high cost of gasoline and diesel? Just sayin’.”

from the article:

“I think Australians largely just had enough with the volatility of oil prices,”

According to Khoury, after an initial surge following the start of the Iran war, pump prices fell below prewar levels in July as the government temporarily halved the fuel excise and a 60-day ceasefire helped bring down oil prices. Despite the lower fuel prices, EV sales remained strong.

“Throughout that whole period, we’ve consistently seen EV sales increasing,” Khoury said. “So, is everyone going to rush out and buy a petrol car or diesel car if they declared the Iran war over tomorrow? It’s unlikely.”

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Volatility and ubiquity are two reasons.

Then for most of the EU - they don’t have their own oil, so a movement away from imported oil will increase a sense fo national security

[Cronos]

Why is this good?

imho

1. less leverage by oil producing countries - maybe even bankrupt the ME petro-states

2. less fluctuations in oil prices

3. vehicles that must run on oil - say trucks in rural or semi-rural areas will get lower and more stable prices

4. other products made from petroleum will have their prices stabilize in process

[microgood]

Could be. But how are they going to generate the electricity for all the new EVs. Europe already has some of the highest electricity prices in the world and this will drive them higher, especially if they are using wind and solar, the most expensive sources for electricity.

[Chickensoup]

The high cost of electricity doesn’t hold them back?

Also aren’t there still incentives?