EVs are eroding the oil industry

Europe stands on the brink of a structural shift in its energy landscape. In the first nine months of 2026, electric vehicles (EVs) accounted for 24.2% of all new car sales across the continent, marking a 41.9% surge compared to 2025. In September 2026, that market share climbed as high as 30.5%. This momentum is no passing anomaly; it is the direct result of targeted policy interventions, technological advances, and evolving consumer behavior.

The electrification of passenger road transport is striking at the very core of the oil sector. Globally, EVs now displace 1.2 million barrels of oil per day—a fivefold increase compared to 2021. The shift is particularly striking given that while EVs currently represent only 4.2% of the global vehicle fleet, they already command 25% of all new vehicle sales.

In Europe, the impact is even more acute: across the European Union, the market share of pure petrol cars slipped to 21.2%, while diesel plummeted to a historic low of 7.1%. For the oil industry, this translates into a structural decline in demand for transport fuels, a sector that has traditionally been its most dependable revenue driver.

Europe’s heavyweight automotive markets are picking up speed as well. France recorded a 79.1% jump in EV sales in 2026, pushing its market share to 31.4%. Germany followed with a 58.1% gain, lifting its share to 27.2%.

The transition to electric mobility appears irreversible and is set to accelerate further in the years ahead. In 2026, EVs officially surpassed petrol to become Europe’s best-selling powertrain. Looking further out, BEVs are projected to displace up to 5.8 million barrels of oil per day worldwide by 2034, a seismic shift that could dramatically bolster Europe’s energy independence.

In the first nine months of 2026, electric vehicles (EVs) accounted for 24.2% of all new car sales across the continent, marking a 41.9% surge compared to 2025. In September 2026, that market share climbed as high as 30.5%. This momentum is no passing anomaly; it is the direct result of targeted policy interventions, technological advances, and evolving consumer behavior.
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No passing anomaly? Maybe, just maybe, it has just a tiny, tiny little bit to do with the current high cost of gasoline and diesel? Just sayin’.

https://autos.yahoo.com/ev-and-future-tech/articles/australias-ev-share-car-sales-095700890.html

this article is for Australia, but the same maxim holds to answer your question “No passing anomaly? Maybe, just maybe, it has just a tiny, tiny little bit to do with the current high cost of gasoline and diesel? Just sayin’.”

from the article:

“I think Australians largely just had enough with the volatility of oil prices,”

According to Khoury, after an initial surge following the start of the Iran war, pump prices fell below prewar levels in July as the government temporarily halved the fuel excise and a 60-day ceasefire helped bring down oil prices. Despite the lower fuel prices, EV sales remained strong.

“Throughout that whole period, we’ve consistently seen EV sales increasing,” Khoury said. “So, is everyone going to rush out and buy a petrol car or diesel car if they declared the Iran war over tomorrow? It’s unlikely.”

Volatility and ubiquity are two reasons.

Then for most of the EU - they don’t have their own oil, so a movement away from imported oil will increase a sense fo national security

Why is this good?

imho

1. less leverage by oil producing countries - maybe even bankrupt the ME petro-states

2. less fluctuations in oil prices

3. vehicles that must run on oil - say trucks in rural or semi-rural areas will get lower and more stable prices

4. other products made from petroleum will have their prices stabilize in process

> This is of course for the EU, not for the USA which has different conditions.<

Most certainly.

You can drive across any country in Europe with just one recharge. The UK is the biggest at 830 miles, but that is four separate countries.

France 700 mi
Germany 500 mi
Spain 600 mi

By comparison, Texas is 837 miles, Florida is 750 and California is 820 miles.

The US is 3000 miles east to west and 2000 north to south.

Why is this good? imho 1. less leverage by oil producing countries - maybe even bankrupt the ME petro-states 2. less fluctuations in oil prices 3. vehicles that must run on oil - say trucks in rural or semi-rural areas will get lower and more stable prices 4. other products made from petroleum will have their prices stabilize in process

There are a few problems with this rosy scenario.

1. Electric cars don't do so well in the cold and large parts of Europe get quite cold in the winter.

2. Yes, it will reduce Europe's dependence on foreign oil....at the cost of increasing Europe's dependence on China instead. China has an effective monopoly on the production of rare earth magnets. Since the process is filthy, the Europeans have no chance of escaping China's monopoly on batteries or rare earth magnets - Gaia wouldn't approve. Which is better, being dependent on a variety of foreign countries for oil or being dependent on China alone?

Side note, the US only makes 20% of the rare earth magnets it uses but has been taking steps to rectify this for a few years now. "Under standard projected NdPr oxide outputs from domestic projects (like Mountain Pass and White Mesa), production could meet about 68.5% of projected 2030 domestic demand. Under an optimistic scenario where key facilities reach 100% design capacity, output could approach 86% of projected demand." The EU needs to implement a similar program to free itself from dependence on China as soon as possible.

Chinese electric vehicles (which are massively subsidized by the state and in which they have a massive glut of vehicles) have invaded the market in the EU and have already captured 10-15% of the EU market for EVs. That is projected to grow rapidly. Chinese EVs are expected to capture at least 30% of the EU market by 2030........is the EU really going to be better off when a much larger portion of car sales come not from European domestic producers (especially German) but instead from China?

Chinese EVs are banned in the US. The EU needs to follow suit to save its domestic auto industry.

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