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Posted on 03/18/2026 9:47:01 AM PDT by BenLurkin
The possible arrival time for the incoming solar storms is still evolving, and depends on which of the multiple CMEs strike Earth and what effect they have.
According to NOAA's latest forecast, the first impacts could begin as early as 11 p.m. EDT March 18 (0300 GMT March 19), with moderate (G2) geomagnetic storm conditions most likely between 2:00 a.m. and 8 a.m. EDT (0600-1200 GMT).
However, other models, including those cited by the U.K. Met Office, suggest the main CME could arrive later on March 19 or even early March 20, prolonging auroral activity through the weekend.
Because multiple eruptions are involved, geomagnetic activity could persist for 24-48 hours or longer, rather than peaking in a single short burst. So make sure your camera batteries are charged! We could be in for multiple nights of aurora shows down at mid-latitudes.
There are decent chances for some geomagnetic storming this weekend and auroral displays further equatorward than usual. NOAA SWPC has a G2 / moderate storm watch for Thursday March 19 and a G1 / minot storm watch for Friday March 20. This is in response to at least FOUR CMEs… pic.twitter.com/o7tGTUKrjTMarch 18, 2026
(Excerpt) Read more at space.com ...
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So another weather prediction....so.....10% accurate.
Flip a coin and be 5x more accurate.
Dang, cloudy skies tonight and for the next few nights. Upstate NY, what can I say...
New Moon tonight, too! I don’t think our terrestrial weather is going to cooperate in my area…
???
flipping coin is 50/50 so it is five times more accurate than one out of 10... aka 10/100 or ten percent.
five out of 10 is five times more accurate than one out of 10... if I understand it correctly.
I wouldn’t compare space weather to meteorology.
These predictions rarely pan out. But those ads won’t click themselves.
The NOAA site seems to disagree:
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/aurora-viewline-tonight-and-tomorrow-night-experimental
It’s clear as a bell here (don’t know how clear a bell is usully) in the Twilight Zone.
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