Posted on 05/22/2025 9:01:33 AM PDT by MtnClimber
We are very probably looking at a global recession, with no end in sight.” – Paul Krugman, November 2016
“Joe Biden will eventually preside over a soaring, ‘morning in America’-type recovery.” – Paul Krugman, November 2020.
“Slower growth is certain. For 2025, I see little or no GDP growth, rising unemployment, and persistent inflation.” – Paul Krugmann, May 2025
If you want an accurate gauge of future economic conditions, look no further than Paul “Nobel-Prize-Winning-Economist” Krugman. He has a solid record of being exactly wrong, as the above quotations show.
So, the fact that he is now predicting stagflation should give everyone a boost of confidence that we are headed for a second Trump boom.
Krugman’s new prediction comes, in fact, just as signs are looking up.
The stock market is back in positive territory since President Donald Trump took office, and is up 7% compared with a year ago.
April’s jobs report beat expectations, with the economy adding 177,000 jobs. (Meanwhile, the Bureau of Labor Statistics admitted that roughly 600,000 jobs Biden claimed to have created during his last year in office were fake.)
The latest inflation number came in below expectations, with April’s 2.3% reading the lowest since … wait for it … February 2021. (That was before Biden signed his $1.9 trillion “American Rescue Plan” into law. You know, the plan that always-wrong Krugman said would never spark a massive inflationary spike.)
Meanwhile, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow has the economy gaining 2.4% this quarter, after taking a very slight dip in the first quarter.
And federal revenues are up 9% so far this year, despite “expert” predictions that there’d be a massive falloff in tax payments. (See “Epic Narrative Fail: Federal Revenue Surges 9% Despite Predictions Of Decline.”)
JP Morgan now says the probability of a recession has fallen below 50%.
Michael Strain, director of economic policy studies at the American Enterprise Institute, says “Trump’s willingness to de-escalate, willingness to pivot, and the resilience of the economy suggest that the U.S. can avoid the worst,” pointing to Trump’s course correction on tariffs.
To be sure, Krugman is hardly the only one predicting a Trump recession. Democrats and their handmaidens in the press, along with partisan hacks like Krugman, have been tripping over themselves with doom-and-gloom predictions since Trump won the election in 2024, just as they did in Trump’s first term. (We’re old enough to remember when such vitriol was attacked as “talking down the economy.”)
It’s also true that there’s no telling what will happen over the next year. Trump’s seemingly ad-hoc tariff campaign is still a drag on economic growth. Republicans could fail to extend Trump’s 2017 tax cuts, which would be catastrophic. Some other calamity could occur.
But we are willing to ignore those warning signs as long as Krugman keeps predicting disaster.
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It must be hard to always be wrong.
We are headed for great economic times!! wooo hooo.
We’ve been in a recession for the past few years. Where has he been?
ROTFL! It’s tough being an “expert”. LOL!
Let’s say he’s right-could be-you never know.
I’d gladly ride it out as there will be no knee-jerk FDR in the WH.
If you want peace, look no further than Nobel Peace Prize winner Yassar Arafat. ;~)
Give him credit. He’s hit a perfect record of always being wrong.
Don’t put it past the investment fund managers to deliberately tank America’s economy in order to make the left and global government crowds happy. They were the main drivers of DEI implementation. They issued “social scores” on companies in order to obtain investment assets, give free airfare, lodging, and expenses, for DEI Agents of change. No DEI support = no low cost capital. IOW, a shakedown racket benefiting social justice nonsense.
“Don’t put it past the investment fund managers to deliberately tank America’s economy”
They can’t.
That is a relief.
The most reliable contrarian indicator available!
Jim Cramer is wrong all the time.
CNBC pays him millions.
He sees through the window of his Manhattan boulangerie.
Well, I sure feel better now.
They can just change the definition of a recession like they did with Biden anyways
The only concern I have is that the treasury auction this week didn’t go as planned so long term rates went up on those bonds.
I also understand Japan’s bond sale flopped which could lead to some global turmoil.
But I’m betting when the “big, beautiful bill” gets finalized and some of the announced investments start actually moving forward in Q3/Q4 that everyone will realize the impact and things will boom.
Paul Krugman is the George Costanza of economics.
Recessions are necessary to get rid of dead wood in the economy.
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