Why is that never discussed? Oh, I see…
Posted on 10/16/2024 9:03:45 AM PDT by Red Badger
Key Points
* Solid-state batteries have long been billed as the “holy grail” of sustainable driving. Proponents say they offer safer, cheaper and more powerful batteries for electric vehicles (EVs), as well as faster charging times.
* There could be another option, however: semi-solid-state batteries, which use a hybrid design of solid electrolyte and liquid electrolyte.
* “Five years ago, if we talked about this, I would have been so excited about solid-state batteries,” Transport & Environment’s Julia Poliscanova said. “But somehow ... there is some kind of barrier today.”
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PARIS, France — The push to commercialize solid-state batteries for electric vehicles (EVs) is well underway, but analysts say auto giants could be on the cusp of turning to a different kind of transformative science.
Solid-state batteries have long been billed as the “holy grail” of sustainable driving. As the name suggests, solid-state batteries contain a solid electrolyte, made from materials such as ceramics. That makes them different from conventional lithium-ion batteries, which contain liquid electrolyte.
This next-generation technology theoretically packs more energy into each unit of volume than lithium-ion batteries. Proponents say it offers safer, cheaper and more powerful batteries for electric vehicles (EVs), as well as faster charging times.
Automakers have invested billions of dollars in solid-state battery research and teamed up with developers to produce their own versions for mass production.
Japan’s Toyota, for instance, has said it is aiming to bring solid-state batteries into mass production between 2027 and 2028. The automaker said a recent breakthrough in its bid to improve the durability of its technology means the battery is expected to offer a range of 1,000 kilometers (621 miles) and a charging time of just 10 minutes.
Japan’s Nissan said in April that it plans to launch solid-state batteries for EVs by early 2029, while Germany’s Mercedes-Benz Group and U.S. battery startup Factorial said in September that they are working together on a solid-state battery that will be ready for production by the end of the decade. Factorial also has joint development agreements with automakers including Stellantis, Hyundai and Kia.
The average range for EVs in the U.S. is nearly 300 miles (or 483 kilometers) on a single charge, according to the Environmental Defense Fund, while the time it takes to charge a battery-powered EV can take 20 minutes or several hours, depending on the car and the speed of the charging point.
Max Reid, an analyst at Wood Mackenzie, said solid-state batteries are at the start of a long journey toward commercialization.
“Obviously, the results are looking very promising — much safer, much greater energy density and particularly the charging speeds, which we think is probably one of the main benefits of solid-state,” Reid told CNBC via video call.
Yet, despite growing hype over the potential rollout of solid-state batteries, analysts remain skeptical about when they will actually make it to market.
Semi-solid-state batteries
One major drawback with solid-state batteries, Wood Mackenzie’s Reid said, is the swelling of the battery during charging and, ultimately, the degradation of the cell after extensive recharging.
“Five years ago, if we talked about this, I would have been so excited about solid-state batteries,” Julia Poliscanova, senior director for vehicles and e-mobility supply chains at the campaign group Transport & Environment, told CNBC at the Paris Motor Show.
“But somehow within this space between pilots and commercialization, there is some kind of barrier today, some kind of blockage because every time I speak with automotive executives at battery conferences, I keep hearing the same answer: ‘We are five to seven years away.’”
“When you look at the current technology, the lithium-ion batteries, they have just been improving so much. The incremental improvement of a cheaper technology has been so good that maybe it’s not so attractive anymore to put all that attention on solid-state,” Poliscanova added.
There could be another option, however: semi-solid-state batteries. These cells use a hybrid design of solid electrolyte and liquid electrolyte — and some analysts say they could serve as a bridge between the two types of batteries.
Semi-solid batteries have already been commercialized “to quite a good extent” in China, Reid said, “and actually, my opinion is that, this is the compromise technology that actually will do away with the need of a full solid-state.”
“Given slower [EV] demand in the West and these issues with solid-state, you might see some negative announcements or not-so-positive announcements for full solid-state and actually a bit of a pivot to semi-solid once that’s realized to be a better transitional technology for what this decade needs,” Reid said.
The development of semi-solid-state batteries is primarily being led by Chinese companies, including CATL, one of the world’s biggest battery producers, and the likes of WeLion, Qingtao Energy and Ganfeng Lithium.
Chinese EV maker Nio has already commercialized 150-kilowatt hour semi-solid-state batteries for its EVs, with a range of up to 1,000 kilometers. Separately, Ganfeng LiEnergy, a subsidiary of Ganfeng Lithium, is producing semi-solid-state batteries for EVs with a range of 530 kilometers.
Lithium-based batteries ‘still the way to go’
Transport & Environment’s Poliscanova said she is seeing progress on semi-solid-state batteries in China, “because whoever it is that understands how to make batteries will always be making the next one.”
“I think there has been a lot more attention and commercialization to the lower cost innovations as opposed to solid-state. It must be because within the vehicle space, the performance is already good enough. Yes, we can talk about trucks and planes, but in the vehicle space, 600 to 800 kilometers is fine. It’s enough,” she added.
Not everyone is convinced of an imminent pivot to semi-solid-batteries — or the hype over the mass rollout of solid-state batteries in the next few years.
“The reality is that for now, when we’re looking at the EV space, lithium-based batteries [are] still the way to go,” Michael Widmer, head of metals research at Bank of America global research, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Oct. 9.
“That’s the mainstay and it will probably stay like that for the next five to 10 years,” he added.
Here’s the best alternative at this particular time in history: ICE
It those damn pesky Laws of Thermodynamics.............
greenest vehicle of all would be a Flintstonemobile. gonna need strong legs and calluses.
“sustainable driving” — LOL. They are fixated on reducing petroleum consumption but ignore the hundreds of billions of tons of ore that must be dug up and refined to make “sustainable” cars at the front-end of manufacturing.
When you count ALL the raw materials used to make cars, transport raw materials, process the materials, build and maintain roads, over the lifetime of vehicles, you’ll find that EVs are no more “sustainable” than any other vehicle.
> a range of 1,000 kilometers (621 miles) and a charging time of just 10 minutes.
It will be charged by lightening bolts. That’s about the equivalent to the current required.
Why is that never discussed? Oh, I see…
There is no such thing as a ‘sustainable’ anything.
At some point ‘entropy’ takes over and it all falls apart......
The hitch: in order to be able to charge in just 10 minutes... it’ll melt your house wiring and burn down your home.
That’s even before we consider the inability of the power transmission infrastructure to handle the load.
“At some point ‘entropy’ takes over and it all falls apart”
Very true. Even at Galaxy scales. Mars had oceans and atmosphere.
At smaller scale, the notion of “sustainable” vehicles is utterly ridiculous. They wear out after 10 - 20 years and are scrapped. But weak, uneducated minds with zero sense of engineering are susceptible to ignorant non-scientific indoctrination. They blindly parrot the “sustainable” mantra without any basis for understanding what they are saying.
LFP happen to have both he lowest cost for lithium and the longest lifetime in charge cycles.
For example, consider a battery with 3,000 - 10,000 charge cycles. (currently LFP can be recharged 3,000 times under non-optimal charging (read supercharging) and 10,000 times optimal (read overnight charging)).
see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lithium_iron_phosphate_battery for proof of my claim.
Ok, so what does that mean in terms of lifetime/cost?
Assume 1 charge cycle per day (that assume you drive over 200 miles in a day, which is 5x times the USA average of 39.7 miles. This means that you will get 8.2 years of battery lifetime, if using superchargers. Or 27.3 years if using overnight charging.
let’s say you instead of ~40 miles a day were a heavy user and drove 100 miles per day. That’s 985,500 miles - the so-called “Million Mile battery”.
In that time, you would have worn out 3-8 gasoline engines/transmissions.
Can electric motors last that long? Yes. You will wear out the running gear first probably, having to replace shocks, springs multiple times.
What’s the downside right now? LFP is not “immune” to fires, just like gasoline, it will burn in a wreck.
The desire for solid state batteries is that they won’t burn, at all, because it’s the electrolyte that burns.
I don’t advocate for government programs promoting electric cars, LET THE MARKET DECIDE.
The leapfrog in engine technology is with ICE. Witness Nissan’s remarkable variable compression engine and now Porche’s six stroke. Truly amazing.
Why don’t they use Perpetual Motion!
It works on YouTube! /LOL
If cars, or anything else for that matter, were truly ‘sustainable’, then you would need to buy only one and it would last forever. Manufacturers don’t like that.
I once met and engineer that worked for a tire company and he told me that they could make a tire that would last for 100k miles or more, and this was in the early 70’s when typical tires would last 30-40k miles. But that would not be good for the company.............
> the inability of the power transmission infrastructure to handle the load.
Neighborhood Nuclear Power Plants To The Rescue!
No, seriously, there’s low-tech nuclear solutions for generating electricity, and also low-tech nuclear solutions for manufacturing diesel. Of course if you and your neighbors can produce your own diesel you might not need an EV...
Most of these solutions run off natural or slightly-enriched uranium; add-on higher tech features include thorium conversion for higher energy output, radioactive “waste” burnup for remediation and higher efficiency, irradiation chambers to manufacture specialty isotopes; etc.
The smallest useful designs produce roughly 20KW to 100MW of quality heat energy, suitable for farm/ranch/industrial/desalination/oil&gas extraction/mining/other process heat consumption.
” ... Witness Nissan’s remarkable variable compression engine ... “
In the end, Nissan’s VC-Turbo variable compression ratio engine technology is interesting, but it might be more headache than it’s worth. Although it’s not radically different from a standard piston-type internal combustion engine, it has just enough extra moving parts that failure, it seems, is an option.
And massive AI server farms.
There is a HUGE battery plant going up outside a large city in Indiana. I’m going to point my finger and stare them straight in the eye and say “I told you so” when the EV industry falls completely apart.
“It those damn pesky Laws of Thermodynamics.............”
You are right second law machines will always be more efficient than first law machines. This is why electric motors crush heat engines in turning chemical energy into motion and always will. Math it’s universal and also the law.
On a btu to btu basis an EV is four to five times more effective in turning chemical energy to motion. This includes burning natural gas in combined cycle turbines, sending it via the already very efficient distribution grid which wouldn’t exist if it was not so eff at sending electrons over long distances. Even after all those losses including charging the pack the EV’s second law motors STILL use less BTU per mile than burning gas in a conventional ICE the data and math is available wit large on Google scholar. Summary is 60+% eff combined cycle turbines > 5% or less transmission losses to the plug and 8% or less pack charge loss. Still crushes a regular ICE at 12.5% average over the drive cycle and a peak BSFC point of 32% at best and only at one operating point near 75% max output for the typical 200hp car is 150hp.used less than 1% of its drive cycle. Cruising at speed is 25hp for a sedan sized car and under 20% BSFC by LHV BTU to the wheels.
Solid state have the energy density for 1000km per charge that is 600 miles. NO ONE and I mean no one drives 600 miles in a day every day. It’s moot with 10 min charges anyway. I have owned plenty of vehicles with under 300 miles range before needed to be filled it wouldn’t be until 2005 till I had a vehicle that would go 400+ miles on a tank. My Explorer, Blazer, Jeep, RX7 never went more than 300 most were 275 or less per tank. So 300 is plenty of range it’s charge time and access to charge points that matters. Fuel takes 5 to 10 min so it didn’t matter that the blazer only went 250 at a tank it took ten min to fill it up and go again. Once you have easy access to ten min charges of 300+ miles it is the exact same thing. Difference is at 10 cents per kWh it’s 2 cents per mile. Vs $3.00 gas in a 25 mpg fleet avg vehicle is 12 cents per mile or six times as much.
It comes down to charge time and that’s where solid state and semi solid state.change the game they can do 10C charges that is 6 min even a 6C charge is only ten min. CATL already has LFP cells regular liquid cells that can do 6C. The DOD is getting aluminum graphene cells that can do 66C those will like Velcro eventually get to retail sales.
66C is 54 seconds from zero to 100% clearly not for EV sized packs but you could charge a cellphone sized pack in 54
seconds from a 120V 15amp plug. Typical smartphone is 10 watt hours in it’s pack so in 60 seconds that is 600 joules per second which is a 60C rate. At 66C it needs 660 joules per second that’s equal to 660 watts the Chinese have a USB that does 10 amps at 60V that’s also 600 watts so yeah you could charge a smartphone in 60 seconds using that standard.
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