Posted on 09/28/2024 7:38:52 PM PDT by Red Badger
It’s 2028. It’s been one year since you bought your first electric vehicle, and the transition has gone far smoother than you expected. You’ve never come close to having your battery die on the road, and any time you’ve needed to power up, you’ve had your pick of convenient charging stations, thanks to the US’s now-robust charging network.
EV charging
At the beginning of the 20th century, electric vehicles (EVs) were actually more popular than ones powered by gas, but by the 1930s, their higher cost, slower speeds, and shorter ranges, combined with the inconvenience of charging compared to filling up a gas tank, lost them the auto market.
At the time, environmental friendliness didn’t really factor into prospective car buyers’ decisions, but we now know that gasoline emissions are a major driver of both air pollution and climate change, generating about 16% of the US’s greenhouse gas emissions. The world needs to transition away from burning gas in order to build a sustainable future.
The good news is that the EV market has been revitalized in the 21st century, but while many of today’s EVs can compete with gas vehicles in terms of performance and even cost, when they do, they’re still generally losing the battle on range and convenience. That’s discouraging many drivers from making the switch.
To figure out what will change that, let’s take a look at the history of EV charging and the tech trends that could ensure topping up your EV battery tomorrow is as convenient as filling up your gas tank today.
Where we’ve been
Where we’re going (maybe)
Today, there are more than 70 EV models available for purchase in the US, and Americans are buying them in record numbers — they drove home 1.2 million EVs in 2023, a huge increase over the mere 50,000 sold in 2013.
Still, that’s less than 8% of the total number of new cars sold in the US, meaning the vast majority of car buyers are still opting for gas-powered vehicles.
One of their main concerns is “range anxiety” — the fear that an EV’s battery will die before a driver can reach their destination or a charging port — combined with the inconvenience of charging.
No surprise, then, that improving charging is a top priority for automakers trying to sell more EVs and policymakers trying to get us on track to meet our climate goals.
The obvious solution is developing higher-capacity batteries and more efficient vehicles. While the median range of EVs in the US a decade ago was only about 80 miles, it was 270 miles in 2023, and over 30 EV models now boast ranges above 300 miles.
That’s not as much as the median range of a gas-powered vehicle — 400 miles on a single tank — but the average driver in America drives fewer than 40 miles a day.
At that rate, they could get away with charging their EV just once a week, and if they have a charger at home, that’s potentially even easier than filling up with gas: plug in the battery at night and never worry about running out of juice.
Home charging isn’t a cure-all for range anxiety, though. First, an estimated 33% of US drivers live in places that aren’t conducive to home charging EVs, and even people who could install a home charger may have to drive more miles in a day than a full battery can handle. There’s also always a chance you forget to charge overnight and discover that on your way to work.
In those cases, you’re going to need to rely on public charging ports, and those have significant shortcomings.
While the US now has nearly 72,000 public charging stations, the vast majority are in urban areas, and this uneven distribution is holding back EV adoption — 36% of Americans live more than two miles away from a charging station, and a recent Pew survey found, perhaps unsurprisingly, that those drivers are less likely to consider buying an EV.
Even if a driver does have easy access to a charging station, topping up a battery can still be a hassle. More than 75% of America’s public charging ports are Level 2 chargers, which take 4-10 hours to charge a typical battery to 80% — fine if it’s at your office and you can leave it there all day, but an eternity compared to the few minutes it takes to fill up a gas tank.
So the US needs more charging stations, in a wider range of locations, including more direct current fast charging (DCFC) ports, which can charge a battery to 80% capacity in 20 to 60 minutes if necessary. (Developing new EV batteries that can charge even faster will help, too.)
Thankfully, EV stakeholders are working on it.
According to a Bloomberg analysis of Department of Energy data, the US built 704 new fast charging stations in the second quarter of 2024 — an increase of 9% in just three months. If this pace held steady, fast charging stations alone would outnumber gas stations in the US by 2032, but — according to Bloomberg — the growth rate is expected to accelerate, meaning we should get there much sooner.
The Biden administration’s $5 billion National Electric Vehicle Infrastructure (NEVI) Formula Program is helping fuel this charging network expansion by subsidizing up to 80% of the cost of creating, operating, and maintaining fast charging ports along major highways.
As of August 2024, NEVI funding had been used for just 17 charging stations in eight states, but agreements are in place to build 2,800 fast charging ports at more than 700 charging stations across the US.
“We’re seeing demand for fast charging skyrocket,” Sara Rafalson, executive VP at charging station operator EVgo Inc, told Bloomberg. “We’re continuing to build bigger and bigger stations because we need to keep up with that demand.”
Building new stations isn’t the only option for increasing the number of fast charging ports EV owners can tap into, though.
Tesla built and operates the world’s largest network of fast charging stations, but until recently, Tesla owners have been the only people who could use them. That’s because Teslas and Superchargers use a charging standard called the North American Charging System (NACS), which is different from the one used by most other EV makers (the Combined Charging System).
In 2022, Tesla made the NACS specifications freely available to other automakers, and most major automakers have since announced plans to have NACS ports in their new vehicles starting in 2025, opening up the Supercharger network to more EV drivers.
“We’re excited to work with Tesla and to see collaborations like this help advance the world toward carbon neutrality,” said RJ Scaringe, founder and CEO of EV maker Rivian. “The adoption of the North American Charging Standard will enable our existing and future customers to leverage Tesla’s expansive Supercharger network while we continue to build out our Rivian Adventure Network.”
In the meantime, Rivian, Ford, GM, and others have started selling adapters that allow their EVs to use Superchargers. Tesla has also equipped some of its Supercharger stations with “Magic Dock” adapters that allow other EVs to use them.
“Essentially, the idea is that we don’t want the Tesla Supercharger network to be like a walled garden,” said Tesla CEO Elon Musk in 2023. “We want it to be something that is supportive of electrification and sustainable transport in general.”
Extended driving ranges and more fast chargers aren’t the only ideas for overcoming existing deterrents to EV adoption — several more radical ideas could also help convince people to trade in their gas-guzzlers for an EV.
Wireless charging is one of them.
Tesla, Brooklyn-based startup HEVO, MIT spinoff WiTricity, and several other companies are developing systems that would allow you to charge an EV by simply parking over a charging pad — no need to bother with any heavy cords and other features that can make using a traditional charger challenging, particularly for people with disabilities. No need to worry about forgetting to plug in.
While not a new idea, battery swapping services could also make owning an EV more appealing — instead of waiting 20 minutes to charge to 80% capacity, you could pop in a full battery in under 10.
Since coming out of stealth in 2021, San Francisco–based startup Ample has opened 12 battery swapping stations in the Bay Area. After an EV pulls into the station, Ample’s tech goes to work, autonomously lifting the vehicle, removing a drained Ample battery, and installing a fresh one before lowering the EV back to the ground so the driver can exit.
“The whole vision is that we want to provide an experience that is as fast, affordable, and convenient as gas,” Hamid Schricker, Ample’s director of product, told MIT Technology Review in 2023.
Ample says its modular batteries can replace the batteries that come with any EV. So far, it’s been testing the tech with just a few models, including Nissan Leafs and Kia Niros, specifically for ridesharing and last-mile delivery, where drivers need their car ready to go quickly. But their eventual goal is to make the service available to all EV drivers.
VIDEO AT LINK......................
California-based startup Aptera Motors is pursuing an even more radical idea for alleviating range anxiety and making charging more convenient: solar power.
The startup expects to begin deliveries of an ultra-lightweight, aerodynamic three-wheeled EV with more than 180 solar cells built into its body in 2025. When the vehicle is outside, these cells can collect enough sunlight to add up to 40 miles of range to the battery every day — enough to meet the needs of the average American driver. Depending on the battery option you choose, according to Aptera, you could get 1,000 miles of range off a single charge.
Aptera has begun licensing its solar tech to other mobility companies and believes its solar panels could become a common feature in EVs, but only if automakers are willing to make energy efficiency a priority.
“Range anxiety exists because most vehicles today aren’t optimized to use energy efficiently, meaning they need larger batteries and more frequent charging,” Steve Fambro, Aptera’s co-founder and co-CEO, told Freethink.
“We believe that by demonstrating how efficiency and lightweight design can transform mobility, we’ll inspire others in the auto industry to adopt similar approaches,” he added.
VIDEO AT LINK.....................
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I’m fine with the concept of EV’s, but having trouble with the execution.
The tech is NOT there yet to force the world into petroleum free living.
Battery weight...Number 4.
When an EV crashes into a gas-powered car, the people in the gas-powered car are more likely to be seriously injured or killed because of the higher weight of the EV.
I’d be less concerned with range than surviving the trip without becoming a crispy critter.
Hello, EV owner:
Your phone GPS says you are traveling a long way. Your vehicle has an estimated range of 350 miles.
In cooperation with your vehicle manufacturer, participating restaurants and motels are offering the following discounts:
ClownBurger, 275 miles from last charge point, 10% off your meal + free charge
MormonMotel, 280 miles from last charge point, 10% off our typical daily rate + free charge
RoyalBurger, 285 miles from last charge point, 10% off your meal + free charge + free fries with every sandwich over $5
“Copper thieves agree.”
Use aluminum.
Sorry, by law, I can only give you $1 a pound for the copper content because you didn’t bring it in marked electrician’s or plumber’s vehicle.
That has specially colored hexagonal wires. You can’t legally possess that. I have to call the police. Where are you running off to?
Well these experts and masters of wisdom are never wrong, don't you know?
“Unprecedented” large leaps in advancements of battery tech, required.
Copper RATIONING.
Charging stations require articulated arm that “takes” the weight of managing the “hose” and “nozzle” so people who are unable to lift the HEAVY cable that has the faster charge rate . . . do not a) die, nor b) get a hernia.
Compressed air hose and “gun,” so the person who handles the recharging physics, can blast air upon the “nozzle” tip and “receptacle” . . . and clear away the dirt/dust (that is going to accumulate).
SYSTEM that lets every EV “know” what charging stations are working (and how well) and where.
HEATING SYSTEM so charging station is not FROZEN “when you get there?!”
Overhead Shelters for all charging stations.
SENSING SYSTEM that alerts charging station’s maintainer, that “an Arizona man” just walked off with the “hose.”
Still way too long for a “fill up”
Just tow a microreactor nuclear plant behind your EV./sarc
If we have enough battery-only EVs to keep those 28 million chargers busy, we'll also be having frequent brown-outs in ever major city in the US.
I have owned no less than five vehicles that have less range in the gas tank than my Model 3 Tesla has in it’s pack which is 360 miles. My 1979 K5 blazer has well under 250 miles to the tank. 1985 Jeep Cherokee 260 ish, My 91 Rx7 had under 300. My 93 S10 also well under 300 miles to a tank. 97 Explorer was 270 a tank. 2003 F150 was just at 300 miles. Only my imports went 400+ miles the SAAB and both my Volvos both were the first vehicles I have ever owned that would do 400+
The important thing is not max range as these vehicles demonstrate its how rapidly and conveniently you refill that range. The trucks took 10 min or so to put 25 gallons in the cars were 15 to 18gal.
Tesla has solved this issue for its EVs the Model 3 will take a 250kw rate you can add 4.4kWh per min over the SOC range of 10% to 70% it slows down to balance the cells above 70%. Not quite but close it starts off at 100kw then ramps up once the BMS makes sure all the cells are in temp range then it rapidly goes up to 250 and holds it there till 70% and starts to ramp down as it starts to balance cells nearing 80% cut off. I can add 250 miles in 25 min on average at a V3 supercharger.
Since nearly no one drives more than 300 miles in a day on a regular basis, L2 home or condo charging is a better option you just get home take 30 seconds to pop the door and plug the plug then go zzzzzz. Yes people drive far on average twice per year farther than 400 miles from home. In reality for those two edge cases which is what they are edge cases you can rent a hybrid car if you only had an EV with 300 miles range and no supercharger along the way.
5. Batteries degrade when fast charged and/or fully charged
6. Insufficient generation and distribution capacity (should be no. 1)
Perfect example...the governmental push for compact fluorescent bulbs. LEDs are far superior. People did not need government mandates to accept them, the market solved that.
Utter fantasy.
People fail in the math on that. 96% of all trips are under 30 miles total. It only takes 7.5kWh to go 30 miles in a full sized model S, less in a midsized Model 3.
Where people fail is they take the total gasoline consumption for all LDV vehicles and then convert that to the equal amount of electricity on a btu to btu basis. Thats completely wrong as EVs use one seventh or less the btu per mile.
Case in point a Model 3 will go 5.5 miles on one kWh that’s 3412 BTU or 620 BTU/Mile. A identically sized S60 uses 114,000 BTU to go 25 miles in the city. That’s 4560 BTU/MI
Also most people drive less than 40 miles per day total that’s only 10kWh per day. There is a small set of users 10% of drivers that burn 32% of all gasoline in the LDV fleet. The bottom 60% of users burn half as much as the top 10%. Getting the bottom 90% of users which all have less than 100 mile per day usage patterns into EVs would only cut gasoline use by 58% this is spread out over an entire year in vehicles that are seven times more efficient.
The total amount of energy used would drop by a factor of seven for that user group. That’s of course plug to wheel factor of seven. Natural gas combined cycle turbines are 60% to the plant gate, 3-5% HVAC to the wall plug losses over 100-300km distances. The power grid is quite efficient otherwise we wouldn’t use it for power delivery in the first place. The plant to wheel of a EV is higher than tank to wheel by at least a factor of two, adding in drilling, refinery, transport and pumping losses makes it three to one or more in favor of the EV on a BTU for BTU basis. It gets better with solar and wind as those have negative energy consumption numbers they produce more energy over their lifetimes vs what was used to make them for solar 50-100 to one , wind is 50+ to 1, nukes can go into the thousands to one. The fact is from a energy view point it’s better to burn natural gas in a combined cycle turbine and then use that in an EV then to even use the gas compressed directly as CNG in an ICE on board. Why because no ICE anywhere can run at the temps and operating point of a large gas turbine with a secondary heat recovery cycle using super alloy blades.
The goal should be get as many urbanites into low energy use per mile since its low hanging fruit they already drive well under the limits of even a 150mile range EV. Then for the gas hogs get them into hybrids for those who really drive 100+ miles a day or more. Largely uber drivers, and rural commuters who make up less than 10% of all drivers. You go for the large groups first before the edge cases. Or just raise gas taxes high enough to force the superusers to change their patterns or mode of use. Use those gas tax revenue to fund actual road wear since the gas taxes now don’t even come close to funding half the expenditures on infrastructure and superusers disproportionately use miles well above what the average person does who’s income taxes currently pay for more than half the expenditures on road infrastructure at the federal level pretty easy to look up those numbers. Much highwe gas taxes would shift the burden to those who use the resource the most. User pays is always the most equitable way. Urbanites drive so much less but contribute well more than half the income tax used so that shift is more than fair.
No we don't.
” several more radical ideas”
Like outlawing gasoline and diesel. You will be forced to buy one. Or... no driving for you.
An even better way is to buy a gas/diesel powered vehicle.
This entire charging station situation reminds me of the fate of Easter Island.
According to some, the island civilization crashed and burned during the push to build more and more Moai. The giant head statues.
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