People fail in the math on that. 96% of all trips are under 30 miles total. It only takes 7.5kWh to go 30 miles in a full sized model S, less in a midsized Model 3.
Where people fail is they take the total gasoline consumption for all LDV vehicles and then convert that to the equal amount of electricity on a btu to btu basis. Thats completely wrong as EVs use one seventh or less the btu per mile.
Case in point a Model 3 will go 5.5 miles on one kWh that’s 3412 BTU or 620 BTU/Mile. A identically sized S60 uses 114,000 BTU to go 25 miles in the city. That’s 4560 BTU/MI
Also most people drive less than 40 miles per day total that’s only 10kWh per day. There is a small set of users 10% of drivers that burn 32% of all gasoline in the LDV fleet. The bottom 60% of users burn half as much as the top 10%. Getting the bottom 90% of users which all have less than 100 mile per day usage patterns into EVs would only cut gasoline use by 58% this is spread out over an entire year in vehicles that are seven times more efficient.
The total amount of energy used would drop by a factor of seven for that user group. That’s of course plug to wheel factor of seven. Natural gas combined cycle turbines are 60% to the plant gate, 3-5% HVAC to the wall plug losses over 100-300km distances. The power grid is quite efficient otherwise we wouldn’t use it for power delivery in the first place. The plant to wheel of a EV is higher than tank to wheel by at least a factor of two, adding in drilling, refinery, transport and pumping losses makes it three to one or more in favor of the EV on a BTU for BTU basis. It gets better with solar and wind as those have negative energy consumption numbers they produce more energy over their lifetimes vs what was used to make them for solar 50-100 to one , wind is 50+ to 1, nukes can go into the thousands to one. The fact is from a energy view point it’s better to burn natural gas in a combined cycle turbine and then use that in an EV then to even use the gas compressed directly as CNG in an ICE on board. Why because no ICE anywhere can run at the temps and operating point of a large gas turbine with a secondary heat recovery cycle using super alloy blades.
The goal should be get as many urbanites into low energy use per mile since its low hanging fruit they already drive well under the limits of even a 150mile range EV. Then for the gas hogs get them into hybrids for those who really drive 100+ miles a day or more. Largely uber drivers, and rural commuters who make up less than 10% of all drivers. You go for the large groups first before the edge cases. Or just raise gas taxes high enough to force the superusers to change their patterns or mode of use. Use those gas tax revenue to fund actual road wear since the gas taxes now don’t even come close to funding half the expenditures on infrastructure and superusers disproportionately use miles well above what the average person does who’s income taxes currently pay for more than half the expenditures on road infrastructure at the federal level pretty easy to look up those numbers. Much highwe gas taxes would shift the burden to those who use the resource the most. User pays is always the most equitable way. Urbanites drive so much less but contribute well more than half the income tax used so that shift is more than fair.
“The goal should be get as many urbanites into low energy use per mile since its low hanging fruit they already drive well under the limits of even a 150mile range EV.”
The goal for WHOM. Piss off, totalitarian
The goal should be get as many urbanites into low energy use
Where exactly are they supposed to charge these magic vehicles? Where does a 5th floor apt. dweller just plug in?And with what for electrical generation? Despite all the happy talk and modeled numbers, solar and wind suck and do not appear to deliver their on paper promises.
And why am I paying with my tax $$’s to build a charging infrastructure that I neither want or need? NO ONE subsidizes my gas stations.
You like your ev...whoopty doo. The rest of us can do just fine without it and really resent the actions being taken to force, pressure and demand we like them.
So no thanks.
“Then for the gas hogs get them into hybrids”
“ Or just raise gas taxes high enough to force the superusers to change their patterns or mode of use.”
Get them, force them. Why are you on this forum? We don’t like government bullies on this forum.
Nice analysis. It overlooks societal operational impacts, such as wind blade disposal/recycling, increased road wear and tear because of the increased weight of EVs, environmental impact from battery production and electricity generation versus oil extraction, etc.
Communists don’t usually last too long on FR. Enjoy your stay.