Posted on 07/30/2024 6:56:58 AM PDT by Phoenix8
NEW: Forecaster who has predicted almost every election since 1984, says Kamala Harris will likely win the election in November.
Allan Lichtman, who correctly predicted Trump would win in 2016 & Biden in 2020, says his forecasts point to a Harris win.
Lichtman uses '13 keys' to make his predictions:
The "keys" are: – party mandate – contest – incumbency – third party – short-term economy – long-term economy – policy change, – social unrest – scandal – foreign/military failure – foreign/military success – incumbent charisma – challenger charisma
As of now, Harris has 6 keys and Trump only has 3.
Lichtman still has four keys to hand out but Harris is already at 6 meaning, in his own words, "a lot would have to go wrong for Democrats to lose."
Lichtman is waiting until the DNC to make his final prediction.
(Excerpt) Read more at x.com ...
And it might motivate independent voters who thought they might sit this election out to get off their sofas and get in the fight (because if Kamala wins, this country is in deep, deep trouble).
Of his “13 keys” the only one that matters is the 14th — the will to cheat of the Democrat base. Sadly, that has not changed from 2020. And nothing has changed to prevent them from cheating. So unless the GOP base is similarly engaged in ballot harvesting on a grand scale, we’re in for a tough November.
He just knows that the cheat is on.
That’s weird.
During a campaign, a VP candidate serves only one purpose. Gain votes. And DEFINITELY don’t lose votes. Thats it. What additional votes does JD Vance bring in? What centrist is going to look at JD Vance and think “well i think that guy moderates Trump a bit so I’ll take a chance and vote GOP”. None. Tulsi Gabbard would have brought in some suburban women. Doug whats-his-face from ND wouldn’t have brought anyone else in, but he wouldn’t have cost Trump any votes. Vance is super smart but runs his mouth enough to alienate at least a few potential voters.
His awarding Harris the keys on short & long term economy are fantasy.
Its not the number of votes that you need to win. Its the ballots.
I’ll bet your dream ticket would be Jeb Bush/Nikki Haley.
And if they won, you’d be jumping for joy for weeks.....”WE BEAT TEAM D! WE BEAT TEAM D!”
I’d rather see Harris win and have your precious “suburban women” get the crap beaten out of them by illegal immigrants, repeat violent felons, who are let back out on the street, and crazy homeless people for the next 4 years, than pander to these contemptible morons, and equally contemptible weak Uniparty fake wrestling pom pom wavers like you.
Not impossible. I’m guessing that the Democrats in Fulton county have at least 75,000 and maybe as many as 150,000 fraudulent ballots lined up and ready to haul out tie November if needed. Plus GA is approximately 31% black and 85% of those will vote Democrat no matter how incompetent and obnoxious the D candidate. So Harris is starting with 26% of the Ga vote legitimately in the bag. And this is just GA.
If so, why try to kill Trump ????
Lol.
Vance is such a minor footnote in this race that most voters will not even know his name.
Quiz:
Who is Hannibal Hamlin? (no cheating allowed)
So that being ready to assume the Presidency idea doesn’t really matter?
Can the guy count? 9 for Trump.
He played Third Base for the Cleveland Indians.
There you go. Thanks for being honest. Then you aren’t interested in winning. You’re interested in being intellectually pure. Which means you’ll never win.
Look at Trump. He’s a compromise candidate. My number one issue is reigning in the power and size of the Federal Government. And balancing the budget (quaint huh?). We are on an unsustainable path re: Federal spending, and Trump never says a word about it. He’s as big a spender as anyone. (How much did he reduce spending during his first 3 years in office? Covid year 4 doesn’t count.)
Where is the wall? He said he’d build it. I don’t see a wall. Where’s better healthcare? He said he’d provide that... haven’t seen it yet. He couldn’t even get ObamaCare repealed. I could go on....
So I would say Trump is the better of two not-great options.
“Harris will “win””
Sure she will, just like Maduro ‘won’ in Venezuela. Just like Slo Joe ‘won’ this last go around
(spits)
He gave Short- and Long-Term Economy to Harris.
In what parallel universe?
Lichtman is a clown, makes $hit up as he goes. Does he have a “key” that adjusts for jailing political opponents or assa*sination attempts on opponents, or installing a Presidential candidate without a primary?
Where does she have the advantage? The economy? Nope. Foreign affairs? Nope. Social unrest? Nope. Crime? Nope.
The rich have been making a killing at the .gov trough.
They are the ones who pay Darkman’s salary—so life is good!
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