Posted on 07/30/2024 6:56:58 AM PDT by Phoenix8
NEW: Forecaster who has predicted almost every election since 1984, says Kamala Harris will likely win the election in November.
Allan Lichtman, who correctly predicted Trump would win in 2016 & Biden in 2020, says his forecasts point to a Harris win.
Lichtman uses '13 keys' to make his predictions:
The "keys" are: – party mandate – contest – incumbency – third party – short-term economy – long-term economy – policy change, – social unrest – scandal – foreign/military failure – foreign/military success – incumbent charisma – challenger charisma
As of now, Harris has 6 keys and Trump only has 3.
Lichtman still has four keys to hand out but Harris is already at 6 meaning, in his own words, "a lot would have to go wrong for Democrats to lose."
Lichtman is waiting until the DNC to make his final prediction.
(Excerpt) Read more at x.com ...
See my reply #20. :-)
Remember when Missouri voted for every presidential winner...Things change
I was at a roulette wheel that showed that it had come up red 27 times in a row. So I bet on red. It came up black.
How much is Lichtman being paid off, since 2020?
Asking for MAJORITY of country.
If Harris was a ‘lock’ the MSMDNC would be on autopilot........Instead they act like their hair’s on fire................
Kamala is so bad that several governors have removed themselves for VP consideration. I just heard about the another one this morning. The governor of NC.
Kamala is not quite the incumbent. But that could be a positive or negative.
Do people associate her with the baggage of the previous administration? Immigration Czar Kamala?
Not only will Harris win, she will receive more ballots than any candidate history, even more creepy Joe.
"He ran for the U.S. Senate seat from Maryland in 2006, finishing in sixth place in the Democratic primary. In 2017, Lichtman published The Case for Impeachment, laying out multiple arguments for the impeachment of Donald Trump."
In many categories of he and his Soviet co-developer's "Keys to the White House", Lichtman has made false assumptions this time around. Little things such as this administration has 'No Scandals', 'No Social Unrest', and the country has a 'Strong Short and Long Term Economy. I'm sure it was simply an unintended oversight on his part.
And it’s not just about Venezuela, is it...
No, it is not.
Just look at how the patriots are standing up, right now, in VZ, against the tyrant/election thief, Maduro.
Is MSM even reporting much on what *should* be a YUGE story?? Not that I’ve seen.
Is our own gov’t - you know ... the so-called leaders ... even calling out election theif Maduro, other than Pres Trump?
Nope. I think KommieLa has congratulated her fellow commie-thief, in fact.
The problem is that most liberals are so brain washed that they would vote for a dog catcher before they would vote for Trump; this besides cheating just might get the camel elected. I hope not but that’s the sad truth.
Bingo
Most voters are women, and most women vote for the rat candidate.
The problem is that most liberals are so brain washed that they would vote for a dog catcher before they would vote for Trump; this besides cheating just might get the camel elected. I hope not but that’s the sad truth.
“I certainly hope he is wrong.”
As do I, but I think he’s right. Lictman left out a few keys:
Cheating
Media support
Stupidity of the public
Well, look at Venzuela. Again using Dominion machines the commie trash won — although exit polls had the non commie winning by 40%.
Didn’t even have to use mailin ballots — which guarantee a commie trash win.
We are being gaslit
If the black vote turns out for Harris in MI-WI-PA, she could win those states. Those states would have gone for Hillary in 2016 except the black vote was lower than expected.
Black females make up the majority of the black vote by about 10 points over black males. Trump may peel off some black male votes, but a heavy black turnout in Philadelphia, Detroit and Milwaukee would be a bad sign.
We know how bad Kamala is, but a lot of the general public do not worship Trump and they are far removed from FR. Right now Trump and Republicans don’t seem to have anything to throw at Kamala that is sticking.
Was he deep state in 2016 when he predicted trump would win when every other source said hillary would?
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