Posted on 07/30/2024 6:56:58 AM PDT by Phoenix8
NEW: Forecaster who has predicted almost every election since 1984, says Kamala Harris will likely win the election in November.
Allan Lichtman, who correctly predicted Trump would win in 2016 & Biden in 2020, says his forecasts point to a Harris win.
Lichtman uses '13 keys' to make his predictions:
The "keys" are: – party mandate – contest – incumbency – third party – short-term economy – long-term economy – policy change, – social unrest – scandal – foreign/military failure – foreign/military success – incumbent charisma – challenger charisma
As of now, Harris has 6 keys and Trump only has 3.
Lichtman still has four keys to hand out but Harris is already at 6 meaning, in his own words, "a lot would have to go wrong for Democrats to lose."
Lichtman is waiting until the DNC to make his final prediction.
(Excerpt) Read more at x.com ...
Also carried by many other news sources like NY Post, Newsweek, CNN etc.
Only if they cheat
Of course he’s wrong.
If he were right, why would Deep State be feverishly working on stealing another election?
Well, Trump did win in 2020, save for the cheating.
It would be amazing luck if the propaganda ministry sticks to that party line.
She is the worst possible candidate the Democrats could run.
Hopefully the Democrat insiders don’t dump her.
What a change since a few weeks ago when Trump heroically survived an assassin's bullet, and everyone thought the election was over.
Win = Steal. That’s what communist thugs do.
Cheating is one of the criteria — if not the most heavily weighted factors — Lictman uses in his prediction process. I presume he thought it better not to include cheating in his factors listing.
Not necessarily. Never underestimate the stupidity of the American public. And Trump is (as always) doing a great job of alienating as many people as possible. He could have brought in a centrist to grab some of the white suburban women who are (maybe) persuadable, but he brought in JD Vance. What additional voters does JD Vance bring in? None that I can think of.
If Trump keeps calling Kamala stupid and low IQ, he’s going to blow it. He should be hammering away at her record, policies and how liberal she is. Let the proxies point out how stupid she is. But he doesn’t have the discipline to do it.
Yes, election fraud is the only way Harris wins. Since you know they will cheat, she might win. I certainly hope not.
Lichtman is Deep State.
He gets the results he’s told to get.
The honeymoon won't last much longer, then the real retard comes out for everyone to see. As soon as this moron is given the nomination at the convention, the real race begins, and the left has no chance except for cheating.
“As of now, Harris has 6 keys and Trump only has 3.”
by his opinion. what does he consider party mandate?
their party was all behind Joe, til they quickly tossed him aside and jumped on kamala, that’s no mandate, it’s desperation, grasping the next straw available and doing so by going against many rules/traditional methods of their own party. though their party has become increasingly about change rules in the moment as need be.
I see increasing amount of online videos and news of blacks and women not in favor of kamal.
I think this guys “forecast” is propaganda to try to sway people toward her.
Most reasonable people know there is no incumbentadvantage this election
This admin has a record to run away from not run on
AI is ready to takeover all voting and will vote democrat
Democraps feverishly took notes on the recent (stolen) election in Venezuela
Incumbency ? That’s a stretch. She was a no show VP . Only 4 Vice Presidents won the presidential elections so I don’t think it gives the leg up people assume
he is probably including cheats
How to STEAL an election, Venezuelan style
From YouTuber The Body Language Guy.
And it's not just about Venezuela, is it...
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.