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Allan Lichtman forecasts Harris win in November.
X ^ | 7/29/2024 | Colin Rugg

Posted on 07/30/2024 6:56:58 AM PDT by Phoenix8

NEW: Forecaster who has predicted almost every election since 1984, says Kamala Harris will likely win the election in November.

Allan Lichtman, who correctly predicted Trump would win in 2016 & Biden in 2020, says his forecasts point to a Harris win.

Lichtman uses '13 keys' to make his predictions:

The "keys" are: – party mandate – contest – incumbency – third party – short-term economy – long-term economy – policy change, – social unrest – scandal – foreign/military failure – foreign/military success – incumbent charisma – challenger charisma

As of now, Harris has 6 keys and Trump only has 3.

Lichtman still has four keys to hand out but Harris is already at 6 meaning, in his own words, "a lot would have to go wrong for Democrats to lose."

Lichtman is waiting until the DNC to make his final prediction.

(Excerpt) Read more at x.com ...


TOPICS: Society
KEYWORDS: 2024election; allanlichtman; harris; lichtman; trump
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I certainly hope he is wrong.

Also carried by many other news sources like NY Post, Newsweek, CNN etc.

1 posted on 07/30/2024 6:56:58 AM PDT by Phoenix8
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To: Phoenix8

Only if they cheat


2 posted on 07/30/2024 6:58:38 AM PDT by nikos1121
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To: Phoenix8

Of course he’s wrong.

If he were right, why would Deep State be feverishly working on stealing another election?


3 posted on 07/30/2024 6:59:04 AM PDT by mewzilla (Never give up; never surrender!)
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To: Phoenix8

Well, Trump did win in 2020, save for the cheating.


4 posted on 07/30/2024 7:00:18 AM PDT by OttawaFreeper ("The Gardens was founded by men-sportsmen-who fought for their country" Conn Smythe, 1966 )
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To: Phoenix8

It would be amazing luck if the propaganda ministry sticks to that party line.

She is the worst possible candidate the Democrats could run.

Hopefully the Democrat insiders don’t dump her.


5 posted on 07/30/2024 7:00:34 AM PDT by cgbg ("Our democracy" = Their Kleptocracy)
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To: Phoenix8
This is the incumbency advantage, which is transferred to Harris. Plus, she is quite popular with suburban women and minorities.

What a change since a few weeks ago when Trump heroically survived an assassin's bullet, and everyone thought the election was over.

6 posted on 07/30/2024 7:01:42 AM PDT by nwrep
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To: Phoenix8

Win = Steal. That’s what communist thugs do.


7 posted on 07/30/2024 7:02:14 AM PDT by drypowder
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To: mewzilla

Cheating is one of the criteria — if not the most heavily weighted factors — Lictman uses in his prediction process. I presume he thought it better not to include cheating in his factors listing.


8 posted on 07/30/2024 7:02:28 AM PDT by glennaro (2024: The Year of The Reckoning, lest our Republic succumb to the "progressive" disease of the Left)
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To: nikos1121

Not necessarily. Never underestimate the stupidity of the American public. And Trump is (as always) doing a great job of alienating as many people as possible. He could have brought in a centrist to grab some of the white suburban women who are (maybe) persuadable, but he brought in JD Vance. What additional voters does JD Vance bring in? None that I can think of.

If Trump keeps calling Kamala stupid and low IQ, he’s going to blow it. He should be hammering away at her record, policies and how liberal she is. Let the proxies point out how stupid she is. But he doesn’t have the discipline to do it.


9 posted on 07/30/2024 7:02:44 AM PDT by bigdaddy45
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To: nikos1121
Only if they cheat

Yes, election fraud is the only way Harris wins. Since you know they will cheat, she might win. I certainly hope not.

10 posted on 07/30/2024 7:03:08 AM PDT by Mark17 (Retired USAF air traffic controller. Father of Air Force pilot. Both bitten by the aviation bug)
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To: glennaro

Lichtman is Deep State.

He gets the results he’s told to get.


11 posted on 07/30/2024 7:03:41 AM PDT by mewzilla (Never give up; never surrender!)
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To: Phoenix8
LOL! This guy is full of it. One week and the leftards are crowning her queen for life!

The honeymoon won't last much longer, then the real retard comes out for everyone to see. As soon as this moron is given the nomination at the convention, the real race begins, and the left has no chance except for cheating.

12 posted on 07/30/2024 7:04:05 AM PDT by Pox (Eff You China. Buy American!)
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To: Phoenix8

“As of now, Harris has 6 keys and Trump only has 3.”

by his opinion. what does he consider party mandate?

their party was all behind Joe, til they quickly tossed him aside and jumped on kamala, that’s no mandate, it’s desperation, grasping the next straw available and doing so by going against many rules/traditional methods of their own party. though their party has become increasingly about change rules in the moment as need be.

I see increasing amount of online videos and news of blacks and women not in favor of kamal.

I think this guys “forecast” is propaganda to try to sway people toward her.


13 posted on 07/30/2024 7:05:14 AM PDT by b4me (Pray, and let God change you. He knows better than you or anyone else, who He made you to be.)
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To: nwrep

Most reasonable people know there is no incumbentadvantage this election
This admin has a record to run away from not run on


14 posted on 07/30/2024 7:05:22 AM PDT by italianquaker
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To: bigdaddy45

https://x.com/trumpwarroom/status/1818259193788342393?s=12

You mean like this


15 posted on 07/30/2024 7:06:36 AM PDT by italianquaker
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To: Phoenix8

AI is ready to takeover all voting and will vote democrat


16 posted on 07/30/2024 7:07:01 AM PDT by butlerweave
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To: Mark17

Democraps feverishly took notes on the recent (stolen) election in Venezuela


17 posted on 07/30/2024 7:07:04 AM PDT by GeorgiaDawg32
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To: All

Incumbency ? That’s a stretch. She was a no show VP . Only 4 Vice Presidents won the presidential elections so I don’t think it gives the leg up people assume


18 posted on 07/30/2024 7:07:11 AM PDT by escapefromboston (Peace, commerce and honest friendship with all nations, entangling alliances with none.)
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To: Phoenix8

he is probably including cheats


19 posted on 07/30/2024 7:07:30 AM PDT by BigEdLB ( they wont try bcause it wont matter.)
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To: Phoenix8
Lichtman, have a got a video for you. Eleven and a half minutes of something that, if you were a patriot, would infuriate the living hell out of you...

How to STEAL an election, Venezuelan style

From YouTuber The Body Language Guy.

And it's not just about Venezuela, is it...

20 posted on 07/30/2024 7:07:31 AM PDT by mewzilla (Never give up; never surrender!)
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