“Losses are small?”
There sure were a lot of “losses” found littered along the road stinking up the landscape after the liberation of Lyman.
Putin “remains a brilliant strategist.”
Sounds like the Russians really are outmatched by Ukraine due to Western support. If they are decisively defeated in the field, what will Russia do next?
In terms of military theory, Ukraine is so far inside Russia's OODA loop that the Russians are combat ineffective on anything above the company level. Hit them head-on, and they can still fight. But that's why Ukraine generally isn't doing that.
Been saying this for almost a month now, but the lack of Russian armored counter attacks is a gigantic red flag to those rooting for a Russian victory. As this source rightly pointed out, these type of Ukrainian advances would be vulnerable to strong armored counter attacks. But the Russians simply aren't capable of mounting them.
Well, it means Ukrainian forces are "secretly" under NATO command and control - which Russia should have anticipated once the war dragged on.
The inability to fight in bad weather is what sank the Moskva. We’ve discovered a weakness.
The Great Reset crowd that wants to exterminate 90% of the global population is winning!
Yay!
Not trying to catch those that are encircled is not necessarily an indication of little strength. It is much more likely a case of "haul-ass and bypass". That is typical of mobile warfare!
(Russian Source) - so we need a propaganda translation:
“losses are small” - losses were catastrophic
“The men fought like lions” - the new recruits tossed down their weapons and ran for their lives
“fortune was not in their favor” - The stupid Chechnyans who were supposed to shoot the ones retreating didn’t do their jobs
“ If this is true, it means the enemy has an American network-centric battle management system, where all units on the battlefield are net-linked and marked on computers, even at company level, let alone at battalion-regiment level.”
Count on it.
4. Just looking for better smoking accomodations.
5. It’s another goodwill gesture.
6. It’s difficult to stop on that terrain, resulting in explosions.
A strategic withdrawal before some massive strike?
https://sonar21.com/premonitions-by-helmholtz-smith/
Weariness is visible – three recent American polls show a desire for diplomacy, “less concern” and that Ukraine doesn’t make the list. I’m reminded of a comment by Gonzalo Lira that Russia should just make the war boring to Americans.
The economic effects of the boomeranging sanctions are inexorably tightening in Europe. We’re now hearing about possible bank collapses and reading cheerful pieces on how to keep mold out of cold damp houses. With Nordstream out of contention. no improvement is visible. Time is on Russia’s side. At some point the European population will have had enough. Protests are growing. The overwhelming rejection in the German parliament of increased support for Ukraine points this way.
America is better off but is also feeling the boomerang. Inflation is rising and what will happen to gasoline prices (a huge concern) when they stop draining the Strategic Oil Reserve? And if China dumps a lot of US currency the situation will get worse.
WESTERN ARMS RUNNING OUT
The West is running out of arms to send Ukraine. A CNBC report speaks of America being out of 155mm guns and ammunition (manufacturers are being sought); it has already sent ten years’ production of Javelins! The latest HIMARS “sent” haven’t been built yet.
Similar stories from Europe. The available stock of ex-Soviet equipment is gone – 28 (“modernized” 20 years ago) T55 tanks scrounged from Slovenia are the latest “wonder weapon”.
The West does not have the industrial capacity to sustain modern war. Everything that has been sent to Ukraine so far has been from existing stocks. Western militaries must either start cannibalizing their standing armies or stop. Then what? Western weapons made the September offensive possible.
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PREMONITIONS OF WHAT?
In short, the Western plan is not working. The sanctions cost the West more, it’s running out of weapons to send and there are signs of softening. If Moscow’s plan was to move slowly and wait them out, then it’s working.
One should not rule out the possibility of a negotiated settlement and it may be that NATO realizes in time that it has painted itself into a corner from which that is the only exit. But it’s hard to see, given all the hyperbole, how the West’s present rulers could admit to such an enormous failure. Electoral replacement, while happening, is too slow. And why would Moscow ever trust anything the West says? A unilateral surrender by Kiev is possible but the only way I could see it is if Zelensky were overthrown. Therefore I rate a negotiated ending as not impossible at the moment but of very low probability. But time is on Russia’s side and October’s improbability may be March’s desperate desire.
More likely to me is, to use a World War II analogy, that now that Kiev’s Operation Citadel in the Kursk Salient is petering out, it’s time for a really powerful mechanized offensive accompanied by strikes deep in the rear with no holding back. One must remember that Putin said they hadn’t really started – I think we’re about to see what he meant. And sooner, I would guess, rather than later. I can’t imagine that anyone in Moscow wants this thing still going on next February.
Item #2 is as old as warfare: Attack ‘em where they ain’t.
Take the territory, leave the strongholds isolated, and wait for the to starve.
It is a fast and efficient way to win a war.
Thanks marcusmaximus. He's not much of a deep thinker, is he.