Posted on 02/28/2022 4:57:28 AM PST by Lazamataz
The biggest side effect from Putin’s debacle is that China is probably rethinking their plans to invade Taiwan this year.
Discuss.
Rethinking in favor of attacking? Or rethinking in favor of waiting?
Succinctly put. Ukraine is a much bigger bite for Russia than Taiwan is for China. But the logistical differences are compelling and not to China’s advantage. China will monitor the response of the West, assess cost/benefits of taking action, and proceed accordingly.
Interesting comment. Maybe China is the who the Ukraine battle is all about — proving to Xi Jinping the Covid King that invading a Russian province will be costly for China.
There was no armed multinational coalition committed to fight for Ukraine as there is for Taiwan
There are multinational navies currently deployed to repel a China incursion into Taiwan.
The Pacific Rim nations are not the cowardly pacifist Europeans
How you know that a China invasion of Taiwan was or is going to take place...this year?
I cannot tell you that.
Xi will have me killed if I talk about the meetings I am privy to.
Its only a debacle in the propaganda. He has Kiev held hostage with a devastating force at the city perimeters and the Ukrainian leader coming to Russia’s vassal state, Belarus, to discuss surrender. In one third the time it took to take Baghdad with 10 % of the physical damage, apparently. Remember, we had to fix all of the mess we made over there.
Their troops and their equipment is untested in actual combat.
Been there, done that.
Wake me when the shelling of Quemoy and Matsu commences.
In naval warfare, one of the key issues is controlling strategic choke points for trade, such as control of the Malacca Strait off Singapore and the Strait of Hormuz off at the mouth of the Persian Gulf.
It seems to me that Taiwan’s semi-conductors are another vital “choke-point” we cannot let China’s greedy hands control.
I’m sure, President Trump is thinking deeply about this issue and has a plan. The weakness of Bidung hurts us deeply as we think about defending. We’ve already seen how much damage China can do to us with the viruses they manufacture and spread.
The World would have to hit China where it hurts like Money and Food . Anyone still buying crap from China through eBay/Amazon ? LOL
There at least 5 or 6 navies at work patrolling the vital areas you mention
Actually Trump said the other day that there will likely be something going on with Taiwan soon.
Quite likely. And Taiwan is no doubt taking heart from the success of Ukraine’s resistance and that much of the world is rallying to her cause. In addition, the Ukraine conflict is demonstrating the maturity and effectiveness of modern defensive missiles, especially of the fire and forget type like the Stinger and Javelin.
I was using the naval choke-point as a metaphor. Key electronics standards and monopolies need some sort of backup plan should they fail or fall into malevolent hands.
What you said.
Overt aggression toward any enemy with the means to reciprocate just isn’t their style, especially considering that a generation or two of economic and political subversion and intimidation will work better.
China always takes the long view.
“Overt aggression toward any enemy with the means to reciprocate just isn’t their style, especially considering that a generation or two of economic and political subversion and intimidation will work better.
China always takes the long view.”
I heard an interesting counter to that the other day (maybe BBC). The point was that Taiwan is not Hong Kong and as time passes the people of Taiwan identify less as being Chinese and more being a separate nation and people. Nearly all the old Nationalist who fled there are dead, the current population has less and less thought of China as home. The longer the wait the harder for the CCP to assimilate the population.
FR. A shadow of what it used to be, eh old timer?
I’d have to guess, just like the rest of us, but I’d say it is inevitable but not yet that China invades Taiwan, in some form. Not until they see how this plays out in Ukraine. Meanwhile, I’ll ramble and bloviate a bit attempting to make some sense of things at least for myself.
Eventually Taiwan’s contribution to the world will be less significant. There will be other chip factories in places like Pennsylvania and Texas. It is hardly likely that anyone will go to war to defend them over Principles. China may just wait until that happens and take it with hardly a shot. That is what I would do. I think that is pragmatic. What damage or threat to China is Taiwan? Why throw a tantrum when it leaves you nothing in return but to become a bigger pariah on the world stage?
What is the point of an invasion if you destroy the nation if not for spite? I believe Putin will not withdraw, will not win and will resort to spite destroying Ukraine if not stopped. I believe he will be stopped by his own people eventually and that probably depends on how badly they feel the sanctions. It is either that soon or a protracted and growing outrage that festers; as the outrage dies everyone goes home and says, “Oh well, they were so brave.”
The US is castrated right now, big guy, little mind and leader. China is waiting to see what Europe does instead of the US for the moment. It has little to do with Taiwan but much to do with how that part of the world is influenced by European actions. China is gauging resolve and effect of sanctions.
I feel like the world has entered a new dimension in the balance of power for the worse. Putin, not Russia, as a wounded animal playing a short game but with huge fangs is a terror weapon. Russians need to remedy that for the better and will be applauded and rewarded by the world if they do. If they do not I fear the worst.
I know absolutely nothing but that the people of the world would like to have peace but there is always some evil bastard that wants power at the expense of peace. It is the same for neighborhoods, towns, cities and states; only the scale is changed. Their position does not consider right or wrong, only what they want and that someone must stop them and they bet they will not or not be able to.
Ok...
and then the end game by DerFuhrer Putin?
Can’t occupy.
Can’t install Puppets for long.
What’s the end game?
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.