“Overt aggression toward any enemy with the means to reciprocate just isn’t their style, especially considering that a generation or two of economic and political subversion and intimidation will work better.
China always takes the long view.”
I heard an interesting counter to that the other day (maybe BBC). The point was that Taiwan is not Hong Kong and as time passes the people of Taiwan identify less as being Chinese and more being a separate nation and people. Nearly all the old Nationalist who fled there are dead, the current population has less and less thought of China as home. The longer the wait the harder for the CCP to assimilate the population.
You've got a sobering thought there, especially considering there are other incentives:
Xi Jinping
Brandon
The probability that over time the West's position will harden.
So you may be right; hope may be clouding my judgment.
I suppose the deciding factor is China's (or Xi's) capacity to sustain an invasion, especially while it's focused on the Belt and Road Initiative. Also, my impression is that domestically, it's not in great shape.
Foreign adventure is a time-tested way to redirect the strains of a dissatisfied and increasingly restive population, but it would not be well received on the international stage. That would not be good for B&R and trade.
I really don't know.