Posted on 07/17/2021 6:31:01 AM PDT by millenial4freedom
Ok, the consensus around here is that monetary policies are driving through-the-roof inflation across all sectors and that this level of inflation will not be 'transitory' in spite of what members of the ruling class are saying.
I'm curious to here the rationale and reasoning from the deflationists here on FR. Why do you think we could be headed for deflation?
M4F
2. Stagnant population growth.
3. NEGATIVE productivity growth.
These are all warning signs for a deflationary climate.
After the “stimmies” and “bennies” run out, look out below.
Negative population growth is a solid argument.
In the short term inflation could go crazy, as in the Carter years. In the long term it will be checked by no available buyers and by bankruptcy.
So, protect money for the next 5 years.
1. So that’s why there’s shortages of everything - because too much supply?
2. Stagnant populatiin growth? The US population has nearly doubled since you’ve been born. It.increases greatly every year.
3. Negative productivity = decreased supply.
FR - where generally smart people create the dumbest posts imaginable.
It’s all so convoluted. I’ve spent years researching the economy, monetary policies, bond yields, monetary stimulus, market trends and so forth...here is what I deduce from it all.
These so called financial experts, analysts and economists have no clue what they’re doing. It’s all flying by the seat of their pants.
That’s my analysis. I’m not a fiduciary, but I did stay in a Holiday Inn Express last night. lol
Seriously though, for every opinion or piece of research touting something...you’ll find the complete opposite opinion simultaneously. So lends itself to confusion.
Just listen to the “not so federal reserve” and how they articulate a point. You cannot definitively put your finger on a direction or solid policy...at all.
They pontificate and milley mouth.
Bfl
Alberta’s child makes an interesting point. Traditionally inflation is defined by too much money chasing too few goods. But when 40% (estimates vary) of all the US dollars in existence have been created in the last 12 (estimates vary) months, and the pedophile-in-chief keeps proposing exploding suns worth of “stimulus” then no matter how many goods are available...we’re so screwed. Other policies like infinite unemployment benefits will serve to drive up wages. Ongoing shortages due, not to supply, but to transportation issues in the ports, will make goods scarce. And, just the fact that we have people in charge who are actively trying to destroy America will tend to destabilize the economy.
If someone wanted to destroy America, what would they do different from the current administration?
Partially agree, but your take ignores growing living standards in the Third World, fueling more consumption, and a lot of free money printed in the First World.
I think inflation is more likely.
Yes and when all the experts agree they are all on the same side of the boat and you can expect the opposite.
For example all the experts predicted higher interest rates earlier this year and the 10-yr yield has been lower by 0.5%
That can be said about most any subject, especially for the past few decades.
I agree. Quit the stimulus crap...it’s not needed any more. Also, a lot of Biden’s economic policies have “ripple effects” where pulling one string over here is actually attached to a spider web over there. Case in point: His absolutely STUPID move to kill the Keystone Pipeline. He did that on his first day in office and snuffed out 11,000 jobs directly, including 8,000 union jobs. He also yanked oil leases on Federal lands and offshore drilling. The result was almost an instantaneous increase in distillate fuel prices. The result has been about a 40% increase in the cost of moving input/output across markets. Those policies ripple through the economy and won’t go away unless someone who still has one neuron firing reverses those decisions.
So why would he do that? First, he’s an economic dimwit. Second, he protects some very BIG contributors to his election. Warren Buffet owns the railhead that moves crude oil from North Dakota oil fields to the refineries in the Mississippi Delta. The Keystone Pipeline would have killed that rail route.
My guess is that some of his other stupid policy moves are to repay other interested parties, including China. BTW, why isn’t Hunter in jail right now. Indeed, why isn’t Joe sitting beside him in jail?
Wait until 1.8 million workers come off the $600 A week unemployment at the same time. Wages will drop and prices will follow.
2. U.S. population growth is at its lowest rate in decades, and that’s even with a massive flood of illegal immigration. Our population growth is driven mainly by longer life expectancy. There are more Americans over the age of 80 today than under the age of 2. That’s hardly a reason to be optimistic about long-term growth.
3. See previous comment about industrial capacity. Productive PER WORKER has grown exponentially, and continues to do so. It’s the productivity PER PERSON that’s declining. The productivity of the highly efficient U.S. worker is being offset by a growing mass of non-productive citizens — including retirees, criminals, and various assorted unemployable misfits — that reduces the overall purchasing power in our economy.
P.S. — Item #3 above explains why this economy must inevitably be propped up through massive government spending … because the only way to keep the demand for products and services strong enough to support all these industries is to make the shrinking class of productive workers not only buy their own things, but buy more and more sh!t for the others. Hence the introduction of things like school lunches, Section 8 housing, Obamaphones, etc.
Maybe you’d like to reconsider your last statement?
We are actually in a rolling Biflationary Depression - both inflation AND deflation. I wrote a whole book on it and got decent reviews.
What happens is that as you flood the monetary system with cash, you get the expected inflation in goods. But the trick is the monetary velocity crashes, business is screwed up at many levels. So some areas of the economy actually collapse at the same time. That’s where we are now, with Covid on top.
“My guess is that some of his other stupid policy moves are to repay other interested parties, including China. BTW, why isn’t Hunter in jail right now. Indeed, why isn’t Joe sitting beside him in jail?”
Biden has always been, first and foremost, about himself. If he did something that benefited the American public, it was coincidental to helping one of his “interested parties.” As for why he and Hunter aren’t in prison, it’s because we have a multi-tier “justice” system. The way you know you’re at the bottom tier is you snap a selfie on a submarine that no amount of enhancement would reveal anything and you end up in prison while Hillary destroys evidence under subpoena and the FBI breaks all of their interview rules, pardons your cohorts and treats you like royalty.
Sounds interesting. Congrats ! You just sold a kindle version. :-)
There is thinking, not me mind you, I am a student of these things no authority, but there is an idea that the money printing going on since quantitative easing has been countering the extreme otherwise deflationary pressure. In other words why have we not burst into an hyperinflationary spiral before now?
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