Thanks MtnClimber.
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Apophis, packed with nickel and iron, measures over 1,000 feet (300 meters) wide...
Posted on 10/28/2020 6:09:01 AM PDT by MtnClimber
Only a small handful of objects are known to pose a serious threat to Earth, and the gigantic asteroid Apophis is one of them. Scientists are now re-evaluating its potential to strike our planet in 48 years, owing to improved observations of the problematic asteroid.
Observations made earlier this year from the Subaru Telescope in Hawai’i are providing astronomers with a better sense of how the Yarkovsky effect is influencing the orbital path of asteroid 99942 Apophis. This effect is like a built-in propulsion system for asteroids, in which trace amounts of leaking radiation can alter an object’s momentum in space, causing it to drift ever-so-slightly from the path otherwise chosen by gravity.
“Without taking Yarkovsky drift into account, Apophis is still a threatening object, just not in 2068,” Dave Tholen, a researcher from the Institute for Astronomy at the University of Hawai’i and a co-author of the pending study, explained in an email. “With Yarkovsky taken into account, the 2068 impact scenario is still in play. Small, but non-zero.”
Tholen, along with Davide Farnocchia from NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory, crunched the new numbers, finding that Yarkovsky acceleration is keeping the Apophis threat inside the 2068 window. Their findings are laid out in new research presented at the 2020 virtual meeting of the Division for Planetary Sciences of the American Astronomical Society.
SNIP
A collision with Earth—as improbable as it appears to be—would be seriously bad. Apophis, packed with nickel and iron, measures over 1,000 feet (300 meters) wide, or over three football fields, if that’s how you like to picture it. An impact with the surface would release the equivalent of 1,151 megatons of TNT. Such a calamitous event happens on Earth around once every 80,000 years.
I’m not hanging around to see it.
For the record, the chance of the Moon crashing into the Earth is small, but non-zero.
For the record, the chance of the Sun crashing into the Earth is small, but non-zero.
For the record, the chance of an errant Star crashing into the Earth is small, but non-zero.
You’ve seen one pantheon, you’ve seen them all..................
Thanks MtnClimber.
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Apophis, packed with nickel and iron, measures over 1,000 feet (300 meters) wide...
Don’t worry, we youngins (I will be 107) will take care of this. First the Communists beginning next week, then this things. Sleep tight, grampa! :>)
No, MtnClimber is right, we could easily nudge it into a safer orbit. The question is whether it's enough of a threat to make it worthwhile.
It will apparently pass closer to the earth than communications satellites in 2029, but the uncertainty in its trajectory is much smaller than its distance to earth, so it should be safe.
The 2068 "close encounter" should put it further from the earth than the sun (!), but the uncertainty is enough that there's a 1:150,000 chance that it could hit. That's not really much of a worry.
Even if it hit, it wouldn't be an extinction-level event. Might cause some temporary climate cooling, though.
I plan to be here (God willing, at 103 years young).
Prolly end up in freeper mind police jail just for trying to look.
Biden will blame that on Trump & Conservatives, lso.
OOH, I’ll take “Things not to care about because I’m dead” for a $1000 Alex.
Yeah, but you'll be okay as long as you are wearing a mask.
Once Harris becomes POTUS, she will cede space to her masters in the CCP; the CCP, in turn, will then take direct action with the astroid and steer it to hit the USA. Problem solved.
It has been a typical government lie since the very first observations in 2004...
Forget 2068, we need to start worrying (again) about 2029 & 2036...
If God is willing, I’ll be 125 years of age when it approaches. So I doubt that I’ll be around for the show.
Good question! I'd like to go back to 2000-2001 when I was a newbie and read some of my opinions from back then. Have not figured it out yet.
What we need is an Asteroid Free zone sign in Erath Orbit, solves the problem right there.
I will be 41. I’ll get my baseball glove ready.
The Barrington Crater is a 1/2 mile in diameter. Anyone know the size of that impactor?
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