Skip to comments.Rasmussen, IBD/TIPP show Biden lead collapsing; Economist has Biden up only because of turnout model.
Posted on 10/21/2020 9:32:14 AM PDT by dangus
Two weeks ago, Rasmussen shocked Republicans by claiming that Biden led by 12 percent. Last week, he led by 8. Today, his lead is only 3. And only half of the poll came out after the shocking revelations that Hunter Biden shook down foreign governments for huge amounts of cash on behalf of his father.
IBD/TIPP has similarly shown Biden's lead narrow from 11 points to just 2.5 points, including down from 5.4 just one day earlier. IBD/TIPP is a tracking poll, also, so again, the full effect of the Biden e-mails is just starting to register.
The Economist still shows a healthy lead of 7%, but the internals suggest that if the partisan breakdown is the same as 2016, Trump will win again. Trump leads by 4 among independents, the same as 2016, and does better at retaining Republican voters than in 2016, while Biden does worse at Democratic voters than Clinton did, although in each case, the difference is only 1%. That's enough, since Trump won in 2016. And voter registration has shifted heavily to Republicans during this campaign season.
The bad news is Dornsife which predicted a popular-vote win for Trump consistently throughout 2016, but now predicts a double-digit (11.2%) lead for Biden.
The IBD/TIPP and Economist internals are also fascinating. They portray massive proportions of Democrats claiming to have already voted. But while the mail-in vote totals are HUGE, they’re no way near the claims of the respondents. Day-of voting, according to these surveys, should run almost 3-1 in favor of Republicans.
If Biden wins(God forbid)Expect a Covid lockdown and subsequent market collapse.
I heard about one “turnout model” in which they assumed that only about 70% of voters who selected PDJT in 2016 would do so again in 2020.
Now they need to balance voter suppression with actual accuracy for their reputations.
Pollsters that predicted a Trump victory in 2016 were targeted by Democrat leaning organizations since that time. They do not want anyone screwing up the narrative. It is hard to say what has happened to Dornsife, but they are based in Southern California which would make them suspect even in normal times. So I would not lose any sleep over it. Poll participation this year has dropped off so dramatically that their accuracy is questionable in all cases.
Exactly. Its crazy to assume a high Democrat turnout based on much higher than usual Democrat early voting. Theyve been fearmongering on all the MSM channels. Polls indicate Democrats are far more afraid of Covid than Republicans are. Democrat politicians have been urging their voters to vote by mail for months.
Ergo, the heavy Democrat vote by mail totals will just mean they are cannibalizing their in person voting - not that Democrats are going to turn out for Biden in large numbers.
Id suggest everybody watch Steve Deace who has done a great job tearing apart the fake polls. Peoples Pundit - particularly when Robert Barnes is on also does a really great job of breaking down the electorate and the polls in detail.
Drudge has that Iowa is trending blue and Georgia is slipping away from Trump.
So to keep the meme going, they have to talk collapsing to realign their fake poll numbers before the election so that they can get hired next time around...
that's really not bad news... if he predicted Trump would get the popular vote in 2016--he was wrong... and he is likely wrong again if he is predicting a double-digit Biden lead...
why would you post that crap?
It really seems like two parallel universes...
The Dornsife poll is partnered with the LA Times, at least it was last election.
I recall they had it close with swings of 4-6 points on a frequent basis and when the Clinton lead shrunk by 5 points during the week before election the Dems had a collective fit and totally trashed the LA Times and Dornsife.
The turnout models are not accurate because they do not reflect major gains in GOP affiliation and the increase in poll avoidance by Trump supporters due to the violence directed against them. In addition, there is likely to be a fall off in liberal youth turnout due to higher ed campus closures caused by COVID.
Based on my memory, the last time i saw that poll posted on FR it had President Trump down to Biden by a lot. But it also had the GOP increasing its advantage in the Senate- which i found weird.
Sounds like something the Crazy Left would invent.
In reality its probably closer to 125% as there were Cruz supporters and some religious conservatives who stayed home.
Biden never had a lead! I just got these latest numbers from my friend who is friends with the independent pollster who is one of the best:
NJ Trump 45 Biden 48
NM Trump 45 Biden 46
OR Trump 46 Biden 47
NV Trump 49 Biden 46
CO Trump 47 Biden 47
WI Trump 50 Biden 45
NH Trump 49 Biden 46
ME Trump 48 Biden 46
VA Trump 47 Biden 47
PA Trump 50 Biden 45
MN Trump 47 Biden 44
AZ Trump 50 Biden 45
MI Trump 50 Biden 44
FLA Trump 52 Biden 44
TX Trump 54 Biden 42
NC Trump 53 Biden 43
OH Trump 53 Biden 41
IA Trump 54 Biden 41
National Poll: At least 100 people in each Congressional District have been polled Almost 44 to 50 thousand respondents
Trump 51.2 Biden 44.4
You are STILL clicking on Drudge WHY????
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