The IBD/TIPP and Economist internals are also fascinating. They portray massive proportions of Democrats claiming to have already voted. But while the mail-in vote totals are HUGE, they’re no way near the claims of the respondents. Day-of voting, according to these surveys, should run almost 3-1 in favor of Republicans.
If Biden wins(God forbid)Expect a Covid lockdown and subsequent market collapse.
I heard about one “turnout model” in which they assumed that only about 70% of voters who selected PDJT in 2016 would do so again in 2020.
Now they need to balance voter suppression with actual accuracy for their reputations.
Pollsters that predicted a Trump victory in 2016 were targeted by Democrat leaning organizations since that time. They do not want anyone screwing up the narrative. It is hard to say what has happened to Dornsife, but they are based in Southern California which would make them suspect even in normal times. So I would not lose any sleep over it. Poll participation this year has dropped off so dramatically that their accuracy is questionable in all cases.
Drudge has that Iowa is trending blue and Georgia is slipping away from Trump.
Yeah. “Collapsing”.
So to keep the meme going, they have to talk “collapsing” to realign their fake poll numbers before the election so that they can get hired next time around...
that's really not bad news... if he predicted Trump would get the popular vote in 2016--he was wrong... and he is likely wrong again if he is predicting a double-digit Biden lead...
The Dornsife poll is partnered with the LA Times, at least it was last election.
I recall they had it close with swings of 4-6 points on a frequent basis and when the Clinton lead shrunk by 5 points during the week before election the Dems had a collective fit and totally trashed the LA Times and Dornsife.
Biden never had a lead! I just got these latest numbers from my friend who is friends with the independent pollster who is one of the best:
NJ Trump 45 Biden 48
NM Trump 45 Biden 46
OR Trump 46 Biden 47
NV Trump 49 Biden 46
CO Trump 47 Biden 47
WI Trump 50 Biden 45
NH Trump 49 Biden 46
ME Trump 48 Biden 46
VA Trump 47 Biden 47
PA Trump 50 Biden 45
MN Trump 47 Biden 44
AZ Trump 50 Biden 45
MI Trump 50 Biden 44
FLA Trump 52 Biden 44
TX Trump 54 Biden 42
NC Trump 53 Biden 43
OH Trump 53 Biden 41
IA Trump 54 Biden 41
National Poll: At least 100 people in each Congressional District have been polled Almost 44 to 50 thousand respondents
Trump 51.2 Biden 44.4
How is that bad news ? They were wrong then. They are likely wrong now.
Now that we are getting close to the election, the FAKE NEWS media/Democrats/pollsters have to start reining in their assertions that Biden is winning.
They should have been ashamed and embarrassed by their RIDICULOUS assertions about Hillary winning in 2016, but they just shrugged it off.
This time, since they faced little repercussions from their hugely inaccurate and biased predictions last time, they are only now starting to move toward reality. Mostly because it will be a YUGE Trump LANDSLIDE this time and they know it.
Their excuse will be “modeling”. The coronavirus model was way wrong, so they will blame their FAKE polls on “modeling”. They are already telling us that.
“Economist has Biden up only because of turnout model.”
The area around Washington DC has most the wealthiest ZIP codes in the country... mansions everywhere - and all on "public servants middle-class pay"... At least the corrupt FBI and equally corrupt 'news' services in the US agree... Biden pays $20,000 A MONTH rent... on his retirement pension...
Is HRC warming up in the bullpen?
Giuliani the other night slipped something into a discussion about Polls, he said something to the effect that Trump was doing better than expected in 5 states, but he wouldn’t disclose which to keep the Dems from knowing.
These Politicians know where they are, they know how to poll.
Also, if Biden/Kamala was a winning ticket, wouldn’t Obama and Clinton be supporting them? Nope, crickets. The B/K ticket is DOA, and that is why even they don’t bother running a campaign!
So, according to the polls, long-time Biden supporters are jumping ship and supporting Trump. That is nice to see.
Most moderate Dems don’t want Joe, he’s never answered questions and his running mate is terrible.
“The bad news is Dornsife”
not really ... they proved they couldn’t accurately predict in 2016 just like the rest of the polls, so why should we expect them to be more accurate in 2020?