Posted on 10/21/2020 9:32:14 AM PDT by dangus
Two weeks ago, Rasmussen shocked Republicans by claiming that Biden led by 12 percent. Last week, he led by 8. Today, his lead is only 3. And only half of the poll came out after the shocking revelations that Hunter Biden shook down foreign governments for huge amounts of cash on behalf of his father.
IBD/TIPP has similarly shown Biden's lead narrow from 11 points to just 2.5 points, including down from 5.4 just one day earlier. IBD/TIPP is a tracking poll, also, so again, the full effect of the Biden e-mails is just starting to register.
The Economist still shows a healthy lead of 7%, but the internals suggest that if the partisan breakdown is the same as 2016, Trump will win again. Trump leads by 4 among independents, the same as 2016, and does better at retaining Republican voters than in 2016, while Biden does worse at Democratic voters than Clinton did, although in each case, the difference is only 1%. That's enough, since Trump won in 2016. And voter registration has shifted heavily to Republicans during this campaign season.
The bad news is Dornsife which predicted a popular-vote win for Trump consistently throughout 2016, but now predicts a double-digit (11.2%) lead for Biden.
Since no one except liberals pays any attention to Drudge these days those types of headlines could be helpful. All that Drudges leftist slant on polls will do is encourage libs to be lazy about voting since theyve got it in the bag.
Popular vote as measured by Dornsife is the action term here. I think they are adjusting the popular vote models based on Trumps loss of the popular vote in 2016. Trump could still be behind in the popular vote because of the blue states but still win by electoral vote counts.
I do not know of any Trump 2016 voter who now supports Biden. I do know of many more Trump supports who openly support Trump and many more who are afraid to openly support Trump.
I would settle for 40 and 4 gains. Hehehehe
Conservatives out votes liberals in 2016. Libertarians didn’t vote for Trump, they will this time.
The results in the Trust Advantage column clearly indicate a heavily liberal/dem-skewed sample.
So, according to the polls, long-time Biden supporters are jumping ship and supporting Trump. That is nice to see.
That’s very promising for House races too.
Most moderate Dems don’t want Joe, he’s never answered questions and his running mate is terrible.
It aligns with what we are observing in the campaign.
I’ve seen that as well!
Rush always has been defeatist, like Hannity.
What a night that would be!
So would I!
Rush is dealing with a lot right now. I would discount what he says.
Bingo.
If that happens, were all effed.
“I heard about one turnout model in which they assumed that only about 70% of voters who selected PDJT in 2016 would do so again in 2020.”
yeah i saw that too, and it’s complete nonsense ...
“The bad news is Dornsife”
not really ... they proved they couldn’t accurately predict in 2016 just like the rest of the polls, so why should we expect them to be more accurate in 2020?
“Drudge has that Iowa is trending blue and Georgia is slipping away from Trump.”
drudge is a far-left anti-trump outfit, so just assume the opposite is true from anything they claim ...
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