HOW DARE YOU!
Posted on 03/17/2020 4:36:45 AM PDT by tatown
What if we compared the mortality rate of influenza and coronavirus using only confirmed cases (no estimates)? People seem to like to use a ~0.1% mortality rate for seasonal flu when comparing it to coronavirus. This 0.1% figures includes all of the estimated influenza cases in the US, using modeling, which dramatically lowers the mortality rate. The same modeling/estimating is never applied to coronavirus. What happens when we only use confirmed cases for each and eliminate the models and estimates for total cases?
Per the CDC the number of CONFIRMED seasonal flu cases this year in the US is 222,552 with 22,000 deaths. This calculates to a mortality rate of ~10%.
The number of confirmed coronavirus case in the US is 4743 with 93 deaths. Using the same math, the mortality rate is 1.9%.
Based on these calculations coronavirus appears no more lethal that the seasonal flu and may in fact be significantly less so. Again, this calculation is void of opinion and hysteria and simply relies on data that is known (confirmed cases and confirmed deaths). No estimates, no models, no Chinese data, Iranian data, Italian data, South Korean, etc...
I couldn’t handle the pay cut.
~Cheers
I think that’s a very reasonable approach. The common baseline is (or at least should be) people sick enough to seek medical care for evaluating any historical epidemic.
It lets you compare events before PCR, before antibody studies, before electron microscopes, before optical microscopes, before even the germ theory, to current events.
In my calc below, I try to use only resolved cases in the denominator and get a Case Fatality Rate for a prior influenza season that is slightly higher than the CFR for COVID19 globally...AT THIS TIME.
That's said, I personally like more vs fewer metrics. It's like driving a car...sometimes my speedometer is more important than my gas gage or my engine temp or battery power gage.
It’s extremely telling that when confronted with the actual hard data (truth) these folks get hostile. It is EXACTLY the same reaction that global warming zealots have when confronted with the truth. The meltdown when data is provided that doesn’t support their end of the world dogma.
Why the moderators put up with this emotional insanity is beyond me.
Yes, the denominator is way off for US cases...not so much for South Korean cases ...much more testing done there...use those numbers and you get 0.9%. Main point here is that the original post indicated “hard numbers, no estimates”, and then proceeded to use a fatality estimate. Only hard #’s available for common flu is pediatric fatalities.
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html
To be fair, a lotta people have offered up their personal contrarian take, so not to pick on you. They have been wrong, also, but that’s part and parcel of having opinions.
HOW DARE YOU!
The main problem with the folks extrapolating the data is that they are not using any common denominators. The infected and the dead have to be compared to a larger denominator, otherwise the numbers are BS. So the irresponsible and manipulative media, along with the power hungry liberals and gelded GOP, go along with the story line, panicking the masses.
God it is amazing even have stupid people on free public. I thought we could go somewhere to get away from stupid people, but I guess not. The number he’s using is reflective of the current United States numbers of hospitalized reported cases verse deaths for the coronavirus . It is 100% accurate. The Chinese are about 80,000 plus cases with about 3000 plus deaths. The good news is stupid is not contagious and not curable good luck with your rest of your life
Some scientific estimates:
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca
I can handle whatever is thrown at me because my analysis is data based. I’ve kept estimates, models, Chinese numbers, etc out of the that equation. My math is not wrong...the data however is what it is. The CDC uses positive cases for flu as reported to them by clinicians. If the clinicians misreport, then the CDC data is wrong. I can’t help that.
I *do* think there is value in looking at the deaths/confirmed cases ratio despite the issue of unresolved cases in the denominator. It is helpful only as an indicator and/or when put alongside a comparable metric, or as a trend indicator. Even then, you need to understand that changes in the number of testing kits, societal awareness etc all factors into these metrics.
I tend to like more vs less metrics - I can multitask - to arrive at a conclusion. So can most people. This epidemic seems to be dumbing down - and raising the game - of many people. *sigh* Such is life, and death...
Fauci told Wallace that he did not think a national lockdown, similar to Italy's, would be necessary for the United States, and also discussed three reasons why coronavirus is different from other ailments like the flu.
“One, it’s brand new so we don’t have any prior experience about what it’s gonna do, what it’s dynamic’s gonna be,” he said. “Number 2, it spreads very easily, there’s no doubt about that. It isn’t like some of the other outbreaks that we had that just didn’t adapt itself to spread among humans. And Number 3, it’s very serious in the sense of morbidity and mortality, particularly among – and very heavily weighted -- towards individuals who are more susceptible – the elderly and those with underlying conditions.”
When asked if its contagiousness and lethality are worse than the flu, Fauci emphatically said, “Well yes, I mean it just is, and we’ve gotta face that fact.”
Fauci also repeated his prediction that things “will get worse before they get better.”
Then ignore the data. Just spend the rest of your life relying on the accuracy or agenda of ‘experts’. It’s what the global warming crowd does and they seem fine with it.
It’s not about mortality.
OK, but start here: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/how-cdc-estimates.htm
Only “hard number” for common flu fatalities reported by doctors/hospitals is pediatric deaths, all others are CDC estimates.
Speaking of dense...
Everybody knows the coronavirus is just a government scheme to deprive Americans of their constitutional rights. Haven’t you read ANYTHING AT FreeRepublic? It’s a HOAX!
/sarc
and here’s the thing- these are “confirmed” cases...what happens if the real number of cases - IN THIS COUNTRY- is 5x that amount??? then all of a sudden the death rate is less than .4%. Even if its twice that amount the death rate falls under 1%
We know how many people died of this but we don’t know the real number of how many people have it...You can extrapolate that around the world.
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