[Drago]

Yes, the denominator is way off for US cases...not so much for South Korean cases ...much more testing done there...use those numbers and you get 0.9%. Main point here is that the original post indicated “hard numbers, no estimates”, and then proceeded to use a fatality estimate. Only hard #’s available for common flu is pediatric fatalities.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html

[tatown]

Try this

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm

[Drago]

Some scientific estimates:

https://youtu.be/mCa0JXEwDEk

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

[lepton]

Yes, the denominator is way off for US cases...not so much for South Korean cases ...much more testing done there...use those numbers and you get 0.9%.

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At this point, the numbers for South Korea actually get you a 5.4% fatality rate, but they seem likely to go down. It is very encouraging relative to what we are seeing elsewhere, and at that point in the trajectory.

The 0.9% (really 1.0%) is a fatality/case rate, which is similar to saying that in South Korea has a recovery rate of only 17% (83% have died or not recovered). Both are wrong in the same way because they assume a final disposition which is actually unknown for the vast majority of cases.