Posted on 03/17/2020 4:36:45 AM PDT by tatown
What if we compared the mortality rate of influenza and coronavirus using only confirmed cases (no estimates)? People seem to like to use a ~0.1% mortality rate for seasonal flu when comparing it to coronavirus. This 0.1% figures includes all of the estimated influenza cases in the US, using modeling, which dramatically lowers the mortality rate. The same modeling/estimating is never applied to coronavirus. What happens when we only use confirmed cases for each and eliminate the models and estimates for total cases?
Per the CDC the number of CONFIRMED seasonal flu cases this year in the US is 222,552 with 22,000 deaths. This calculates to a mortality rate of ~10%.
The number of confirmed coronavirus case in the US is 4743 with 93 deaths. Using the same math, the mortality rate is 1.9%.
Based on these calculations coronavirus appears no more lethal that the seasonal flu and may in fact be significantly less so. Again, this calculation is void of opinion and hysteria and simply relies on data that is known (confirmed cases and confirmed deaths). No estimates, no models, no Chinese data, Iranian data, Italian data, South Korean, etc...
You are correct. There are a plethora of influenza like cases with inexplicable negative influenza tests. I have personally treated numerous ARDS that for the life of me we didn’t have a positive influenza and gave Tamiflu presuming a false negative. No increased mortality.
Additionally the data no one wants to look at. 150,000 tested cases in South Korea with only 7000 or so positive. That means 97% of the cases that were tested with similar symptoms only a small percentage had corona. How virulent is this really? This is consistent with our numbers.
What if the cruise ship. Absolute ideal conditions and lest than 1/4 of patients got the disease.
Getting a grip is now impossible. But these are the data
I wish you well and pray that you and your family aren't exposed. If every moron pimping the "it's flu" nonsense realized that CV-19 is far more serious, we'd all be better off.
Whew! I’m glad we finally got some guy with a Jethro Bodine cipherin’ methodology to offer his version of reality as a substitute for what even Trump’s top medical advisors and experts have to say on the topic! Dodged a bullet there!!
No need to comment on this slop. I'll let it stand on it's own.
Per the CDC the number of CONFIRMED seasonal flu cases this year in the US is 222,552 with 22,000 deaths. This calculates to a mortality rate of ~10%.
The number of confirmed coronavirus case in the US is 4743 with 93 deaths. Using the same math, the mortality rate is 1.9%.
80,000 died last year from the flu. Keep this in perspective.
Per the CDC the number of CONFIRMED seasonal flu cases this year in the US is 222,552 with 22,000 deaths. This calculates to a mortality rate of ~10%.
Look if you can’t read through my post and complete simple math then I honestly can’t help you. These are CONFIRMED cases of flu and coronavirus in the United States.
You first accused me of using Chinese self reporting...which I have no idea how you arrived at. Then you called me a dimwit because you couldn’t understand my very simple math, then you demand that I explain “how your 1.9% calculation for CV-19 makes seasonal flu more lethal.”
I don’t want to make fun of you so I’ll hold my powder. It is very simple to understand. If you have more questions, you might want to ask someone who can explain it more clearly for you rather than attack me an continue to embarrass yourself.
——Based on these calculations coronavirus appears no more lethal that the seasonal flu and may in fact be significantly less so——
So let’s close everything down because of Coronavirus...
They are out to get Trump no matter what they have to do....
Your case count is way off...the only “official” hard case count kept for “common flu” (multiple strains) is pediatric fatalities (144 for this flu season as of a few days ago). Estimates of cases are in a range and are in the tens of millions per flu season. See:
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html
You must be a liberal because you keep whining about plain math so let me help you.
Influenza deaths 22,000
Confirmed influenza + cases 220,000 and change
Deaths / Confirmed cases 10%
Corona deaths. 79
Total confirmed + cases 4800+
Death / Confirmed cases 1.9%
Go ahead and twist away your logic and tell us oh erudite one what is the flaw.
Use this link for CDC influenza data. For the 2017-2018 season, there were 61k deaths and 810k hospitalized folks, for a Case Fatality Rate of 7.5%.
Using the JH website, as of now there are 7,167 deaths globally and 79,737 recoveries for a Case Fatality Rate of 8.2%.
Yes, I know all about underreporting of deaths and recoveries and faked PRC data and all that. But quotients are quotients. I am not a biostatistician nor do I play one in TV. Your mileage may vary.
Exactly I’m just a real Jethro with lab science and engineering degrees Louie.
Same experience. May know soon though. Japan has an antibody test they are starting to use. If you had it you will have a antibody for some time.
Your calculations seem very apples to apples comparison-like and logical to me.
The CDC estimates that as many as 56,000 people die from the flu or flu-like illness each year. SOURCES: National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases: “Common Cold.”
So using your logic you make the supposition that the numbers for tatown are way off. There is strong opposition that the numbers being used to calculate the death scare rate are way off (90% of patients have mild or no symptoms). Therefore for each 1 case we hear about there are 90 we don’t. Therefore the total cases are much higher therefore the death rate is lower and comparable to other respiratory diseases
QED
I was waiting for your argument to pop up to refute with the truth
“Exactly I’m just a real Jethro with lab science and engineering degrees Louie.”
—
I’m shocked President Trump hasn’t asked you to head up the effort against the virus! Wow! He, unfortunately, only has the top experts in the field and secret situation briefings to go by! It a cryin shame I tell ya!!
Logically none of this makes any sense. I don’t fear the virus, I fear the fearful because I know what panic can do to people. Bud’s Guns was busy last night. If you are low on any popular ammo, best to top off your supply.
LouieFoak
John Preston
DannyTn
Rummychick
In front for chicken little award today.
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