Posted on 03/17/2020 4:36:45 AM PDT by tatown
What if we compared the mortality rate of influenza and coronavirus using only confirmed cases (no estimates)? People seem to like to use a ~0.1% mortality rate for seasonal flu when comparing it to coronavirus. This 0.1% figures includes all of the estimated influenza cases in the US, using modeling, which dramatically lowers the mortality rate. The same modeling/estimating is never applied to coronavirus. What happens when we only use confirmed cases for each and eliminate the models and estimates for total cases?
Per the CDC the number of CONFIRMED seasonal flu cases this year in the US is 222,552 with 22,000 deaths. This calculates to a mortality rate of ~10%.
The number of confirmed coronavirus case in the US is 4743 with 93 deaths. Using the same math, the mortality rate is 1.9%.
Based on these calculations coronavirus appears no more lethal that the seasonal flu and may in fact be significantly less so. Again, this calculation is void of opinion and hysteria and simply relies on data that is known (confirmed cases and confirmed deaths). No estimates, no models, no Chinese data, Iranian data, Italian data, South Korean, etc...
However how arrogant and unhumble can a man reasonably be judged to be when he says 'take stock of your ignorance, my fellow dopes!'
Like a liberal signaling virtue by crying for the environment, so do I behave like every other dunderheaded mortal, hopefully less harmfully so.
That's what makes me so great, I tell myself with enough half belief to stroke my ego but not so much as to control what anyone else does or thinks.
LOL Fair enough and well played then!
Your hubris is only exceeded by your humility. :)
You realize that was fake, right?
It was a movie!
You should have posted a photo from Galaxy Quest.
I was wrong, it is also exceeded by your sense of humor.
Check that mortality for the seasonal flu again.
You’re mixing up decimals and percents.
We don’t lose 1 out of 10 people who get the flu every year.
Whatever the mortality rate for coronavirus is, the mortality rate for the seasonal flu is NOT 10%.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_human_disease_case_fatality_rates
“Influenza A, typical pandemics < 0.1%”
Jaws was a movie? Gosh, I thought it was a documentary. Holy cow.
Please before posting again, go back and read the post. The calculation is using known CONFIRMED cases of the flu in the United States (without the assumed cases assigned by modeling). This is exactly the same thing we are doing with COVID 19. The cases listed are CONFIRMED.
When sticking with only CONFIRMED cases (no modeling, guessing, woo, etc) the calculated mortality rate of the flu is ~10% and the calculated mortality rate of COVID is ~1.9%.
The cool thing about data is it doesn’t care what you, I or anyone else thinks. It doesn’t care about fatality rates, R0 factors, Chinese commie propaganda, etc. It just is what it is.
Influenza isn’t a reportable disease OTHER than pediatric mortality associated with it.
https://wwwn.cdc.gov/nndss/conditions/notifiable/2018/
I guarandamntee you there are more than 200,000 or so swabs for the flu every year.
It’s a wonderful analogy for oafs pushing the “it’s flu” conspiracy. I’d ask you to wake up but I think we’re all better off if you ignore the warnings. Darwinian Theory is a god thing.
You can’t read.
I understand perfectly now.
The TOTAL number of swabs for the flu is over a million, so far.
That’s your number of people who had the flu and are sick enough to go to a doctor with it.
If we swabbed everyone who had contact with a positive swab, the percent dead would be even less. Way less.
That’s what South Korea is doing in their testing.
You can’t compare swabbing only people who are sick enough to go to a doctor with swabbing all those people PLUS anyone they’ve had contact with.
‘We’ (the US) will never have those kinds of numbers.
Only SK will get that statistic.
You wish others die because we disagree with you.
You are such a turd.
I don’t think the deaths in the US will equal a bad year of the flu. Under 80,000 deaths. More than likely in the 20,000 death range, which is where we are at this year with flu deaths.
Not at all, this it only a flu.
Again I referenced CONFIRMED cases. There were in fact 1,073,976 total swabbed patients of which 222,552 actually were confirmed positive for influenza (20.7%). The other 79.3% that were swabbed DID NOT HAVE INFLUENZA.
Are you honestly trying to be difficult with this? This is literally 3rd grade level stuff here.
Finally, after all of your lame posts, you said something accurate.
You are still a turd.
This isn’t the flu, but tell us again why Fauci said this was 10x more virulent than the flu? Why lie? I hope your wife has the good common sense to protect herself, rater than rely on you.
If you are using current, in-flight data, then (as you know) things won't add up/foot. But that's the nature of using in-flight data; we'd rather drink a bucket of dirty water in the desert rather than dump it because it's not clean.
If you want to do what I did, i.e., work with complete data, then you get perfect alignment and things add up...but they may not be in perfect congruence with the current situation/phenomenon.
Pick you poison, and drink. It's St. Patrick's Day, after all. And thanks for everything you do.
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