Posted on 03/17/2020 4:36:45 AM PDT by tatown
What if we compared the mortality rate of influenza and coronavirus using only confirmed cases (no estimates)? People seem to like to use a ~0.1% mortality rate for seasonal flu when comparing it to coronavirus. This 0.1% figures includes all of the estimated influenza cases in the US, using modeling, which dramatically lowers the mortality rate. The same modeling/estimating is never applied to coronavirus. What happens when we only use confirmed cases for each and eliminate the models and estimates for total cases?
Per the CDC the number of CONFIRMED seasonal flu cases this year in the US is 222,552 with 22,000 deaths. This calculates to a mortality rate of ~10%.
The number of confirmed coronavirus case in the US is 4743 with 93 deaths. Using the same math, the mortality rate is 1.9%.
Based on these calculations coronavirus appears no more lethal that the seasonal flu and may in fact be significantly less so. Again, this calculation is void of opinion and hysteria and simply relies on data that is known (confirmed cases and confirmed deaths). No estimates, no models, no Chinese data, Iranian data, Italian data, South Korean, etc...
“But you cannot control the population with seasonal flu - you can only restrict the gathering of patriots in large numbers and destroy our great economy with the new, improved flu”
As Reagan said many times, freedom can easily be taken away, as this coronavirus crap illustrates.
You should probably take a break and go on another shopping trip for TP, masks and gloves. You are going to be locked in your basement for a long time to come.
Hopefully, you’ll come out looking better than those Jap soldiers did in the 1950’s who thought WWII was still going on.
I will be 56 in June. Have never had a flu shot in my entire life. Don’t believe I’ve ever had the flu either. If so it was a mild case. Then again I probably have great immune system because as child had about every disease a kid could get before the age of 7. Measles/roseola (hospitalized), chicken pox, mumps both sides same time. After that my little sister would get strep every year (finally had tonsils removed). We shared a room and I never once caught it. Today it’s been probably 5 years since I had a cold. Just saying...people today don’t have good immune systems for many reasons.
With all due respect Jon, you are a nasty piece of work. Guess your mom never taught you manners.
| Symptomatic Illnesses | Medical Visits | Hospitalizations | Deaths | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season | Estimate | 95% U I | Estimate | 95% U I | Estimate | 95% U I | Estimate | 95% U I |
| 2010-2011 | 21,000,000 | (20,000,000 – 25,000,000) | 10,000,000 | (9,300,000 – 12,000,000) | 290,000 | (270,000 – 350,000) | 37,000 | (32,000 – 51,000) |
| 2011-2012 | 9,300,000 | (8,700,000 – 12,000,000) | 4,300,000 | (4,000,000 – 5,600,000) | 140,000 | (130,000 – 190,000) | 12,000 | (11,000 – 23,000) |
| 2012-2013 | 34,000,000 | (32,000,000 – 38,000,000) | 16,000,000 | (15,000,000 – 18,000,000) | 570,000 | (530,000 – 680,000) | 43,000 | (37,000 – 57,000) |
| 2013-2014 | 30,000,000 | (28,000,000 – 33,000,000) | 13,000,000 | (12,000,000 – 15,000,000) | 350,000 | (320,000 – 390,000) | 38,000 | (33,000 – 50,000) |
| 2014-2015 | 30,000,000 | (29,000,000 – 33,000,000) | 14,000,000 | (13,000,000 – 16,000,000) | 590,000 | (540,000 – 680,000) | 51,000 | (44,000 – 64,000) |
| 2015-2016 | 24,000,000 | (20,000,000 – 33,000,000) | 11,000,000 | (9,000,000 – 15,000,000) | 280,000 | (220,000 – 480,000) | 23,000 | (17,000 – 35,000) |
| 2016-2017 | 29,000,000 | (25,000,000 – 45,000,000) | 14,000,000 | (11,000,000 – 23,000,000) | 500,000 | (380,000 – 860,000) | 38,000 | (29,000 – 61,000) |
| Preliminary estimates* | Estimate | 95% UI | Estimate | 95% UI | Estimate | 95% UI | Estimate | 95% UI |
| 2017-2018* | 45,000,000 | (39,000,000 – 58,000,000) | 21,000,000 | (18,000,000 – 27,000,000) | 810,000 | (620,000 – 1,400,000) | 61,000 | (46,000 – 95,000) |
| 2018-2019* | 35,520,883 | (31,323,881 – 44,995,691) | 16,520,350 | (14,322,767 – 21,203,231) | 490,561 | (387,283 – 766,472) | 34,157 | (26,339 – 52,664) |
* Estimates from the 2017-2018 and 2018-2019 seasons are preliminary and may change as data are finalized.
Here are my calculations:
| Date | Deaths/Hospitalizations |
| 2010-2011 | 12.76% |
| 2011-2012 | 8.57% |
| 2012-2013 | 7.54% |
| 2013-2014 | 10.86% |
| 2014-2015 | 8.64% |
| 2015-2016 | 8.21% |
| 2016-2017 | 7.60% |
| Preliminary estimates* | |
| 2017-2018* | 7.53% |
| 2018-2019* | 6.96% |
If I do the calcs this way, I ensure my deaths+resolutions=hospitalizations. You either go on the cart or you get better. What data are you using?
Virus denier!!! Geezer killer!!!
I’m not looking at historical flu data in any detail.
Was that wrong?
Actually, tens of millions of people get some form of influenza every year. That is what the CFR is calculated from.
I could not find a link to post an influenza graphic from the CDC, but here is a link to it: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pdf/freeresources/graphics/flu-averted-2017-18-infographic_update.pdf
The coronavirus is being very closely tracked. It is wishful thinking to believe that Covid-19 is already widespread and we’re only seeing a small percentage of the cases that are serious enough to require medical care. This is a new virus, with many characteristics that are associated with pandemic capable viruses. These characteristics were identified as a result of intensive study of past pandemics, such as the 1917-1919 H1N1 pandemic which is still intensely studied today.
There is a reason those of us in the medical community are so concerned.
If you do not understand statistics, and what they say, you shouldn't try to talk intelligently about them. The numbers offered are an apples-to-apples comparison, which the numbers being tossed around (including by you) are not.
You missed the point entirely. These are United States CONFIRMED cases of both. No estimates or modeling. If you add in estimates or models to influenza is turns the data comparison into garbage. This is as close to apples to apples as we can get.
I had the exact same case, except it was in Feb, 2017. I thought it was just a bad case of the flu. But what if this coronavirus has been around for a few years, but no one knew about it until now?
There you go again...
Psst...a hint. Intellectually mature people look at the data and make up their own minds. You might reconsider your panic mongering, and your blind worship of "experts."
You might also consider addressing the facts/issues/analysis as opposed to attacking the poster.
I had the same. If the COVID test checks for antibodies we should both be positive if your theory is accurate, which I think it is.
Actually the denominator is much larger what’s being used as undoubtedly there are many more cases than confirmed.
That being the case the percentage is actually much lower.
As reported: (93 deaths/4,743 confirmed)* 100 = 1.96%
If the confirmed cases were only off by a factor of 10
More likely: (93 deaths/47,430)* 100 = .196%
“But what if this coronavirus has been around for a few years, but no one knew about it until now?”
Or, they knew and didn’t tell us until now? IDK.
Why not just use the entire population of the known universe as the denominator?
You need never worry about any disease again!
BR - my post wasn’t really a response to YOU, it was more just knocked loose by your post, should have started with that, I was not contradicting you on stance.
Except that assumes that the same percentage of cases rises to the level requiring attention. Maybe Corona is incredibly weak but incredibly wide spread. Maybe the opposite.
But I get what you're saying. In the end we can only guess wisely w/in a likely range.
Another concern with this puppy is ability to re-infect (I think medium-low) and any long term damage, even if slight (why you might want to avoid it even if you're not in the age death-zone)
Since I don't stick my finger in holes in fences when I can't determine if there is a hungry rottweiler on the other side, I will be calmly doing 100% of what I can do to avoid this short of going crazy. Got to get sun, exercise and a little human interaction. Too LITTLE of life itself depresses the immune system.
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