PUSH HARDER!!!
Posted on 02/25/2020 10:49:58 AM PST by DouglasKC
I love Rush but he has stated several time today that the death rate of Corona virus is LESS than the death rate of influenza. This is just flat out wrong.
From the CDC website
Mortality rate of influenza: Deaths per 100,000 population: 2.
So the CDC says that for every 100,000 people that get the flu, 2 of them will die from it. What is the mortality rate percentage?:
2 (the number of deaths) divided by 100,000 = .00002, or .002%.
The estimated mortality rate of corona (which he is basing on the number out of China = 2-3%.
Death rate of flu= .002%
Death rate of Corona = 2%
The death rate of corona is a THOUSAND times greater than the flu...and that's assuming that we used Chinese numbers. Using IRAN number the death rate is 15%...
Rush MIGHT be referring to the fact that the flu can kill up to 80,000 americans in a year. But that's only because there's a LOT more people infected with various flu viruses. When as many people are infected by the corona virus then there would be an accurate comparison.
#168. yes
“If just as many people are infected with corona than there would be a thousand times more death AT A MINIMUM.”
Facts are generally on your side on this issue - until you start exaggerating.
We have some real bad times ahead, both as a world and as America. “Be Prepared” for it...
“Also, it does appear to hit Asians harder.”
This might be true but it has not been scientifically established.
“It appears to be quite contagious, but it’s hard to say if it’s more contagious than any flu.”
The flu has a well established R0 of 1.3 and the *estimated* R0 for the corona virus is 6. Not 47, but well over that for the flu.
“Nobody knows a thing based on Chinese “statistics.” They lie about everything. Maybe they’re minimizing it, maybe they’re exaggerating it, who knows?”
They are probably way underreporting, given the other information out there and the illicit reports from inside Wuhan. One simple stat: based on reports of the activity at their crematoriums they have at least triple the normal body count and had to call in 40 extra industrial incinerators to deal with “medical waste”.
But you are right. Don’t panic. Prepare and be vigilant.
I agree that this is a potentially very serious problem for us from a strictly medical POV (which ignores the commercial/economic aspects). However, even if China is major-league fuqued, a lot of that has to do with:
1) They smoke a LOT more than we do;
2) Their cities are a LOT more polluted than ours;
3) Their average nutritional status is definitely lower than ours, and not by a little; and
4) We have a FAR more capable medical infrastructure and a more educated populace.
In view of the above, whatever medical problems we have from the Kungflu is going to be much less than what China is dealing with now.
The operative word there is "seems." You're right - it may linger for a while or, per Vietnam, it may be "curable" somewhat quickly. In fact, the literature on CFRs usually has a qualifier that a CFR is basically "valid" ONLY when the pandemic is through. Thus, as you say (correctly), these numbers are in flux and can / may / will change from day to day.
Nonetheless, the point of my post was to differentiate between the varying rates and ratios and percentages being quoted. Further, while a CFR today isn't comparable directly to a CFR for some other disease that has run its course, I do believe there is benefit in calculating the CFR and making comparisons across countries and time. After all, we keep track of the runs scored during a baseball game even though it ain't over till its over.
Agree with your reasoning, but it also appears that Asians are a bit more susceptible due to the receptors for the virus in their lungs. Males have it worse than women, Asians worse than blacks, who are themselves worse than whites. So your best bet in this virus outbreak is to be a white woman.
That, at least, is the preliminary analysis by “scientists” (who are related in concept to “They”). Time will tell if that analysis is correct or not, because this IS going worldwide in significant numbers.
The PRC reaction to it is all the indication we need to see that this is serious. People who shrug it off are fooling themselves. Even if it has no major impact outside of Chinese borders, it will have a serious economic impact around the globe.
Not 2 flu deaths per 100,000 flu cases, but per 100,000 population.
Corona is more lethal than flu, but not so dramatically different.
Yeah, the problem with the ACE-2 receptor theory is that I’ve not seen anyone able to translate that into a likelihood of transmission or severity of disease.
For that matter, I don’t know what a high number of ACE-2 receptors vs normal number of ACE-2 receptors means. It might not be that much difference.
“Which one is the world all caught up about?”
Every pandemic starts small, just like every big company starts small. Don’t mistake “small now” for “can’t become big,” because that is VERY short-sighted and based on emotion, not facts.
Well we’ll see what happened at the end of the year. Either we’re all dead or the virus died out on its own.
Yes, it looks like the coronavirus is much more lethal. The question is how contagious is it? I think it’s at least moderately contagious, and if that’s the case, the Chinese people are in big trouble.
Exactly. Don’t panic. And panicking isn’t helpful to anybody individually and isn’t going to anything to help us. Be careful, go on with things, be vigilant.
I think the economic consequences might be severe...not because of the flu, but because of the panic. And as I asked elsewhere (no answers so far), who benefits from starting a panic?
Right now there is no meaningful Case Fatality Rate (to use the “official terminology”) as there are not enough resolved cases to provide sufficient data.
For example, the Case Fatality Rate in India is 0% as all 3 cases there resolved without any deaths. In the Philippines, however, of the 3 cases, one recovered, one died and one is unresolved, so the Case Fatality Rate is 33% but could jump to 67% without a change in the number of affected. That’s why it isn’t useful to try and calculate that with too little time for cases to resolve in large numbers.
However, we *can* calculate a sort of instantaneous CFR for the Philippines as 50% (1 dead, 1 recovered), South Korea as 31.25% (10 dead, 22 recovered), Iran as 100% (16 deaths, 0 recoveries), Italy 87.5% (7 deaths, 1 recovery). Those numbers look pretty bad, but that is the nature of small data sets. All of those numbers should drop, eventually approaching something like 2% except where the medical infrastructure breaks down (like in Wuhan) where the numbers will be significantly higher. And also, Iran, where we can expect a 600% CFR due to the propensity of the powers that be to multiply things by random numbers for political effect.
As for the Mortality Rate (”official terminology”) right now it is at pretty close to zero. Of 8+ billion people in the world, only some 2700 or so have died from the corona virus (official WHO numbers).
There are more like 30 million - 40 million cases of the flu. Younger and healthier people generally deal with it at home with pain relievers, vitamins, bed rest, etc., and likely never go to a clinic or doc, let alone a hospital. The overall death rate is typically between 0.1% and 0.2%, which means 30,000 - 80,000 deaths/year. Those going to hospitals are, generally speaking, those who are very young or old who have under developed or compromised immune systems.
FWIW, if the Kungflu infects 40 million people and kills 2% of them, we are looking at 800,000 deaths - 10 times worse than the worst “normal” flu year. Since it appears to be more contagious, more lethal and without a definite medication to cure it, this thing is going to be pretty bad (but I simply cannot imagine that it will be anywhere near as bad as even the Spanish flu of 100 years ago, much less the Black Death, which killed about 1/4 - 1/3 of Europe a FEW times over the centuries).
Math is hard:
South Korea, 10 deaths out of 977. (.01)
Cruise ship 3 out of 691. (.004)
Japan 1 out 170. (.005)
“Rush mentioned the cruise ship that was quarantined with the virus. How many have died? Zero.”
False. 3 died. All Japanese in their 80s. Not zero.
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