Posted on 12/13/2019 1:17:04 PM PST by Red Badger
Daily observations of the number of sunspots since 1 January 1900 according to Solar Influences Data Analysis Center (SIDC). The thin blue line indicates the daily sunspot number, while the dark blue line indicates the running annual average. The recent low sunspot activity is clearly reflected in the recent low values for the total solar irradiance. Data source: WDC-SILSO, Royal Observatory of Belgium, Brussels. Last day shown: 31 October 2019. Last diagram update: 1 November 2019. [Courtesy climate4you.com]
*Deep solar minimum on the verge of an historic milestone*
Overview
The sun is currently in the midst of a deep solar minimum and it is about to reach an historic milestone. So far this year the sun has been blank (i.e., no visible sunspots) for 266 days and, barring any major surprises, it’ll reach 269 days early next week which will be the quietest year in terms of sunspots since 1913 when the sun was spotless for 311 days. In fact, the current stretch of consecutive spotless days has reached 29 and for the year the sun has been blank 77% of the time. The current record-holder in the satellite era for spotless days in a given year is 2008 when the sun was blank for 268 days making the 2008-2009 solar minimum the deepest since 1913.
Solar minimum is a normal part of the 11-year sunspot cycle, but the last one and the current one have been far deeper than most. One of the consequences of a solar minimum is a reduction of solar storms and another is the intensification of cosmic rays. The just ended solar cycle 24 turned out to be one of the weakest in more than a century – continuing a weakening trend that began in the 1980’s – and, if the latest forecasts are correct, the next solar cycle will be the weakest in more than 200 years.
The sun remains spotless today and has been so 77% of the time in 2019; image courtesy NASA SDO/HMI, spaceweather.com
Solar minimum and the intensification of cosmic rays
One of the natural impacts of decreasing solar activity is the weakening of the ambient solar wind and its magnetic field which, in turn, allows more and more cosmic rays to penetrate the solar system. Galactic cosmic rays are high-energy particles originating from outside the solar system that can impact the Earth’s atmosphere. Our first line of defense from cosmic rays comes from the sun as its magnetic field and the solar wind combine to create a ‘shield’ that fends off cosmic rays attempting to enter the solar system. The shielding action of the sun is strongest during solar maximum and weakest during solar minimum with the weakening magnetic field and solar wind. The intensity of cosmic rays varies globally by about 15% over a solar cycle because of changes in the strength of the solar wind, which carries a weak magnetic field into the heliosphere, partially shielding Earth from low-energy galactic charged particles.
Cosmic rays have been intensifying for more than 4 years. On Dec. 5th and 6th they surged within a percentage point of the Space Age record, according to data from neutron counters at the University of Oulu’s Cosmic Ray Station in Finland. Courtesy spaceweather.com.
High-altitude balloons have been launched on a periodic basis in recent years to monitor stratospheric radiation associated with the influx of cosmic rays and they have shown a steady increase since 2015 (campaign sponsored by spaceweather.com). In this set of measurements, cosmic rays have increased by about 13% during the past four years over the central part of California. At another location, the neutron monitor at the University of Oulu’s cosmic ray station in Finland recorded levels earlier this month that were within a percentage point of the satellite era record.
Cosmic rays in the stratosphere are intensifying for the 4th year in a row. This finding comes from a campaign of almost weekly high-altitude balloon launches conducted by the students of Earth to Sky Calculus. Since March 2015, there has been a ~13% increase in X-rays and gamma-rays over central California, where the students have launched hundreds of balloons. The grey points in the graph are Earth to Sky balloon data. Overlaid on that time series is a record of neutron monitor data from the Sodankyla Geophysical Observatory in Oulu, Finland. The correlation between the two data sets is impressive, especially considering their wide geographic separation and differing methodologies. Neutron monitors have long been considered a “gold standard” for monitoring cosmic rays on Earth. This shows that our student-built balloons are gathering data of similar quality.
Cosmic rays are of interest to anyone who flies on airplanes. According to spaceweather.com, the International Commission on Radiological Protection has classified pilots as occupational radiation workers because of cosmic ray doses they receive while flying. A recent study by researchers at the Harvard School of Public Health shows that flight attendants face an elevated risk of cancer compared to members of the general population. They listed cosmic rays as one of several risk factors. There are also some studies that suggest cosmic rays promote the formation of clouds in the atmosphere; if so, increasing cosmic rays could affect weather and climate.
400 years of sunspot observations; courtesy Wikipedia
Solar cycle 25
The solar cycle is like a pendulum, swinging back and forth between periods of high and low sunspot number every 11 years or so. Researchers have been tracking solar cycles since they were discovered in the 19th century. The just ended solar cycle, #24, was the weakest with the fewest sunspots since solar cycle 14 peaked in February 1906. Solar cycle 24 continued a recent trend of weakening solar cycles which began with solar cycle 21 that peaked around 1980. The very latest forecast for the next solar cycle (#25) says it will be weaker than the just ended SC24 and perhaps the weakest of the last 200 years. To be fair, some earlier forecasts had the next solar cycle being in similar magnitude to SC24. However, research now underway has apparently found a more reliable method to predict space weather. The maximum of this next cycle – measured in terms of sunspot numbers, could be 30 to 50% lower than the most recent one – solar cycle 24 according to the latest forecast. The results of this new forecasting technique show that the next solar cycle will start in 2020 and reach its maximum in 2025.
The new forecast is the work of a team led by Irina Kitiashvili of the Bay Area Environmental Research Institute at NASA’s Ames Research Center in Silicon Valley, California. Using data collected since 1976 from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory and the Solar Dynamics Observatory space missions, the researchers were able to come up with a prediction by directly observing the solar magnetic field rather than simply counting sunspots, which provides only a rough gauge of activity inside the Sun. Because this is a relatively new approach, there is only data from four complete cycles, but by combining three sources of solar observations with estimates of the Sun’s interior activity, the team was able to produce a prediction in 2008 that matched the activity that was observed over the past 11 years.
One challenge for researchers working to predict the Sun’s activities is that scientists do not yet completely understand the inner workings of our star. Some factors that play out deep inside the Sun cannot be measured directly. They have to be estimated from measurements of related phenomena on the solar surface like sunspots, coronal holes and filaments. Kitiashvili’s method differs from other prediction tools in terms of the raw material for its forecast. Previously, researchers used the number of sunspots to represent indirectly the activity of the solar magnetic field. The new approach takes advantage of direct observations of magnetic fields emerging on the surface of the Sun.
Temperature recordings at the Greenland Ranch weather station in Death Valley, California during the intense heat wave of July 1913. This excerpt about the record-breaking heat wave comes from an article posted during January 1922 in the meteorological journal Monthly Weather Review which is still in publication today. Courtesy NOAA
Extreme weather of 1913
One final note of interest, the year 1913 cited earlier for its lack of sunspots on the order of 311 days was a year filled with wild weather extremes including the hottest temperature ever recorded on Earth in Death Valley, CA. For more on the extreme weather of 1913 click here.
Meteorologist Paul Dorian Perspecta, Inc. perspectaweather.com
Why can’t they see the bigger picture?
There are two different phenomena at work here and they are trying to find one explanation.
The number of sun spots is a function of the polarity strength of the sun. Increased polarity causes less sunspots.
The energy hitting earth is a function of the earth’s magnetosphere which gets weaker as the earth’s dipole field weakens. Weaker magnetosphere, less shielding, yields increased earth radiation.
I haven’t been following this very close as I did 25 years ago, but the big question is, “Is the sun’s polarity field in opposition to the earth’s polarity field?” We know the turbulence created when we shove two magnet similar poles together.
The Lord said the there would be wonders in the sky towards the end of the Age. You never know. The sun could do a blaze up and blow everybody’s mind. But don’t worry. The Beast will have a solution.
I do my part.
Every Tuesday and Thursday is Taco Salad Day At Taco Town................................
Thank you for posting an excellent article.
The sun is a dipole field.
The earth is a dipole field.
The human soul is a dipolar field. (Almost accidentally typed BiPolar for humans!)
These all interact and are the main reason for the polarity shift in gender identity and the high divorce rate.
Actually “Grand Solar Minimum”
Like temperature and sea level measurements from the 19th century and back, I seriously question the correlation between old measurements as opposed to more modern methods (and the “correction algorithms” applied by “scientists”). And with sunspot observations, even the current methods are of limited value. No doubt, there is an obvious correlation between solar activity and global temperature, but the modern maximum and coming minimum are so far removed from the Dalton minimum that comparison of primitive “sunspot observations” without solar irradiation, cosmic rays, and other more modern measurements of solar activity is very limiting.
No problem; my day got all fouled-up, too. I’m doing a lot of reading on Linux, specifically Mint Cinnamon versions, to bookmark user tips, problems etc. Looking forward to the day where I can BleachBit the HDD (or wipe with cloth) and switch everything over from MS. Hope all’s well w/ you and yours.
.
Mt. Kilimanjaro?
Absolutely, there are about 6 influences or more all happening at the same time in a cycle. Trying to limit depth of scope to just one cause has been the mistake of even the most intelligent of men. There are not only many influences, but there are the unseen, unknown, and the unpredictable.
Accidents happen. And we are an entity wobbling and corkscrewing though the universe at 514,000 mph to complete a galactic year.
THIS is astronomical in just concept alone, even without any other small “local” factors in our solar system stacked on top to tip the scale... list is is huge, it is totally incomprehensible to most...
It is absolutely scary as hell once you do get it... lol
Thanks for the other thread.
I presented this in the early 1990’s at a conference and everyone laughed.
I explained that the path of the earth’s core axis, represented by the magnetic North pole moves in a circular pattern around the geographic North pole, representing the axis of the crust. The complete circle takes about 2,000 years away from the geographic North and back again.
The strength of the magnetosphere is a function of the alignment of the two axis. Greatest opposition creates cooling of earth as the dynamo output of the friction between the core spinning in the crust is greatest.
Alignment of the poles decreases dynamo output and increases earth’s temperature. This is why we are experiencing global warming. Not exactly. .. but indirectly...
The masculine and feminine aspect of the human soul consciousness is also directly influenced by the earth’s dipole field. When poles are aligned and the field is weak. Human souls start growing. They lose the shackle of the strong field.
When this happens, there is a great increase in the presence of Divine higher frequency consciousness. Holding onto fear anger and guilt in the presence of a higher frequency consciousness is like putting a dense object in the microwave, it heats up. This is the great spiritual awakening written about in many religions.
Luke 21;
0 “When you see Jerusalem being surrounded by armies, you will know that its desolation is near. 21 Then let those who are in Judea flee to the mountains, let those in the city get out, and let those in the country not enter the city. 22 For this is the time of punishment in fulfillment of all that has been written. 23 How dreadful it will be in those days for pregnant women and nursing mothers! There will be great distress in the land and wrath against this people. 24 They will fall by the sword and will be taken as prisoners to all the nations. Jerusalem will be trampled on by the Gentiles until the times of the Gentiles are fulfilled.
25 “There will be signs in the sun, moon and stars. On the earth, nations will be in anguish and perplexity at the roaring and tossing of the sea. 26 People will faint from terror, apprehensive of what is coming on the world, for the heavenly bodies will be shaken. 27 At that time they will see the Son of Man coming in a cloud with power and great glory. 28 When these things begin to take place, stand up and lift up your heads, because your redemption is drawing near.”
Hey, Linux actually comes with an owners/operators manual my friend. :)
Doing just fine here and thank you for asking Sir! Had to stay home and make a deal for renting a work yard on our property, supply a contract, and FAX stuff to the renter to be signed. All on linux... :)
Sunspot Baby
She packed up her bags, and she took off down the road
Left me here stranded, with the bills she owed
She gave me a false address
Took off with my American Express
Sunspot Baby, she sure had me way out guessed
Left me here stranded, like a dog out in the yard
Charged up a fortune, on my credit card
She used my address, and my name
Man that was sure unkind
Sunspot Baby, she sure had a real good time
I looked in Miami, I looked in Negril
The closest I came was a month old bill
I checked the Bahamas, and they said she was gone
Can’t understand why she did me so wrong
Plus she packed up her bags, she took off down the road
Said she was going to visit sister Flo
Well she used my address and my name
And man that was sure unkind
Sunspot Baby, I’m gonna catch up some time
We are entering a perfect storm that happens approximately every 44,000 years.
The earth pole alignment and vulnerability due to the decreased magnetosphere is every 2,000 years
The reversal of the sun’s polarity happens every 11 years, thus every 22 years the reversal is in opposition polarity to the earth.
2,000 years times 22 years is 44,000 years.
Yes, the earth is vulnerable for polarity reversal during this perfect storm. It has done this many times per the studies of the polarity changes in the layers of the earth’s crust.
And I just got done reading the thread about the magnetic field weakening, and continuing to weaken. The article mentioned a weaker field would not protect us as much from a solar flare.
And I’m yelling “And what about the every day solar radiation that keeps us warm!!!??? More of that is hitting the earth too!!!”
Now I need to go see if any of those climate “experts” figured the weakening field into their models?
This all came to me in visions in the early 1990’s.
Read my posts 53 and 57. They explain this.
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