Posted on 10/31/2011 11:18:45 AM PDT by Liberty1970
As everyone following the saga of Andrea Rossi and his Energy Catalyzer knows, October 28 reputedly saw the successful testing of his '1 megawatt' cold fusion plant and the first sale. Now Rossi has reported the sale of 'more than 2' such ECAT units, with rumors on the net indicating 13 sales.
It is unclear whether this involves the sudden physical transfer of twelve more completed ECATS (unlikely), or that money has changed hands and sales agreements have been concluded for delivery of such units. Rossi has indicated first-year production of 30-100 such units, so a dozen ECATS represents a significant fraction of capacity for the year to come.
We also have to cope with the fact that the customers have not been identified. Those of us seeking verification for the reality of ECAT claims want, above all else, to see test results verified by someone other than Rossi (or his compatriots). Surely his buyers are in a position to validate his claims as they receive working ECATs. So it is frustrating to be left wondering who those buyers are, even if they may have good reason at this point to preserve anonymity.
That's been the problem all along - for every reason to be skeptical, there is a reasonable interpretation of the same data from the viewpoint that the ECAT is real. The first purchasers may be companies seeking to gain a competitive advantage within their industry using the ECAT, such that publicizing their purchase prematurely would be against their own best interests. I won't waste my time speculating.
And I do think some speculation in the media has been unreasonable. For example, one media outlet commented that Rossi might be honestly mistaken about the power output of his ECAT. Really? Back when LENR enthusiasts were trying to squeeze a few extra watts out of an experiment that might have been plausible, but Rossi himself claims to have run an ECAT for two years. And we are now talking about hundreds of kilowatts, enough to power or heat scores of homes, from a single unit. He either knows he's lying or not. He either is faking it, has the real goods, or has accidently created (and charged up) a spectacular battery that would be almost as stunning as the ECAT idea itself.
What we do know is that Rossi has claimed multiple sales to unknown parties, with more on the way. This is suspicious to me, but it is problematic to conclude the ECAT is a fraud. If it's a fraud it was very skillfully executed, and is now being taken to a whole new level. It now involves Rossi engaging the services of quite a few actors/contractors who played the role of buyers in the 10/28 test. They would have to be aware of the hubbub surrounding the ECAT, and that this would be no mere prank but a serious case of fraud they are getting involved in. They can't all be stuffing cash into suitcases and heading for the hills.
If I'm right, the number of people who would know the ECAT is a fraud would have to be kept as small as possible. Skeptics are fond of comparing the ECAT to past 'free energy' claims where an inventor kept investors waiting, and waiting, and waiting. But Rossi is (at face value) selling real units, not promising vaporware. A fraudulent ECAT simply can't survive physical transfer to independent buyers who can and will soon confirm its operation.
So now we have claims of multiple sales, and Rossi says the first unit has been physically transfered to the buyer. If the buyers are real, even the one first sale should unleash a howl that the public will hear if the ECAT is a dud. The worst case is that the buyers remain anonymous and/or the physical deliveries are delayed, in which case satisfactory non-Rossi confirmation of ECATs is delayed.
But with plans to build 30-100 units in a year and multiple successes under his belt, Rossi will have few excuses to delay shipping units to real customers, and not every one of them will be bent on total secrecy. And let's be sensible - he can only have so many compatriots willing to participate in false sales as the hype builds.
So the ECAT floodgates are open - now we just need to watch what emerges. Outraged customers, continuing secrecy and obfuscation, or delighted and eager buyers at the forefront of a revolution?
A *Ping* for your list.
One possible way to tell if E-Cat is real or not is to look at funding. If he secured a loan from the U.S. DOE, then it is definitely a fraud. :)
No, the worst case is there were never any buyers at all.
With winter on the way - if it’s nothing more than an efficient means to heat a factory - that alone may be worth the cost of buying one.
When an authoritative book is finally written on the ECAT saga up until now, it's going to be _fascinating_ reading. I can't wait to see how it ends! ;-)
I’m guessing you read that line at random without reading the rest of the article, since I do question the existence of real buyers in it.
I wonder how long before we have proof one way or the other? seems to me once money starts changing hands, the time is real soon for the proof to emerge.
Why? Why not just ignore anything related to ECAT unless and until the proof and documentation is made available? I’d like to see it turn out to be successful, but I just can’t understand all the hyperventilation some have to try to prove it’s a scam or whatever, absent solid data.
Does E-Cat trade publicly? If so, what’s the stock ticker?
Hyperventilization is allowed on subjects of profound importance, IMHO. Just think how the Saudis and Iranians must be feeling right about now, if any of them have heard of the ECAT? :-)
AFAIK, Rossi has yet to generate even one watt of ELECTRICITY. He has, perhaps, built a potentially very low cost HEATER. But I’m patient. I wish him success. But I want to see Rossi light a light bulb, lots of them.
No, Leonardo Corp. is private. It looks like Rossi is not going to share his profits at this point. If the ECAT is real, I would imagine he will be able to write his own terms with any bank he chooses and simply borrow money rather than sell stock and share ownership, to meet mind-boggling demand. (And licensing it out to many 3rd parties would be faster than doing everything under one roof anyway, while giving him a rich royalty income.)
That is quite true; to date the ECAT only produces heat. But what of that? That’s what oil, natural gas, coal and nuclear power plants do to generate electricity. They produce heat, and the heat is used to generate electricity. So it’s a no-brainer that the ECAT can produce electricity if it produces heat. It’s just a bit of engineering to do so efficiently and in useful packages (such as in vehicles or home residential, as well as in big commercial applications.)
We'll have to see if it's as fascinating as this story.
If it can generate heat, it can generate electricity. A Stirling engine doesn't require much temperature differential.
The question is whether it can generate enough heat to overcome the various inefficiencies while converting to electricity, and produce a net output that costs less per kilowatt hour than existing technologies.
Anyone can post a link on Topic B and say it pertains to Topic A without explaining the link. But that is intellectually vacuous. You might as well be saying the moon landings were faked just like the ECAT, or any other random thing.
While you pretend to be neutral, you seem to be biased in favor of Rossi.
no one wants to see scammers profit from their scam. Stopping a scammer means identifying their scam. The quicker you can do that, the better.
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