Free Republic
PO Box 9771
FResno, CA 93794
Keep freedom ALIVE!!
Thank you all very much!!
God bless.
Posted on 01/18/2015 9:40:45 AM PST by parksstp
If you're not familiar with the following website, you need to. These guys have systematically all of the data concerning the delegates and nomination process for the parties and how delegates are selected, what counts, and what doesn't count.
I've reviewed the list and am currently working on an IA projection map of the caucus and potential vote but waiting until the straw poll when I can start filling in candidates.
Yet, when I review the total states, I find it difficult to see how the Establishment loses if they are unopposed by other Establishment candidates. Red States for the most part award proportionally while Blue States give out WTA. Under this scenario, a conservative could sweep the south and Rockies, but still end up short for poor performances in the more liberal Blue States due to WTA. This is not by accident, and neither was moving the convention up to June.
Candidates That are 90% or more Certain are Running:
1. Ted Cruz - my top choice. When I talk about the "Reagan Delivery Method" and how to effectively articulate conservatism, this guy has it. IF he can get the South FL loyal Cuban GOP to vote for him over Jeb Bush to an upset win the FL primary, then coupled with TX, he will have incredible momentum. He never gets phased in debates. If he avoids any major gaffes, I think he can more than handle the mainstream media which he has shown.
2. Scott Walker - Could end up being the ultimate compromise candidate between the Tea Party and conservatives. We've seen him survive 3 times in Blue WI where the Libs and Unions have thrown everything and the kitchen sink and yet they can't defeat him. The Establishment has seen that too so they are comfortable that he can indeed win in the battlegrounds. However, there is concern he was moving toward Ron Johnson in that he was distancing himself from the Tea Party and aligning more with the establishment. He supported Romney but called his campaign "lousy". Probably the Top Governor in the race, it comes down to trust. I trust Ted Cruz. I'm ok and could probably trust Walker too, but I am a little hesitant to see if he actually stays the course or not (Where is he now on illegal immigration?). But I think he could be someone everybody could agree on, perhaps.
3. Ben Carson - I don't think he'll be a serious player and I think the anti-gun comments he made hurt his prospects enormously. But on the issues I know he's solid on (health care, social, etc), I welcome him into the conversation and if he lasts long enough I expect him to get some barbs in at the other RINOs at the debates.
4. Rick Santorum - I supported Rick in 2012 after Bachmann and Cain withdrew. In my opinion, he was the best available option at the time. I know finishing 2nd last time he might think there's support there again, but I think there will be better candidates in the field this time around. What killed him was the debate before the AZ/MI primary in a response he had to Romney about "playing ball in the Senate".
5. Rick Perry - I'm not so sure he runs again. First, because we'll have to watch the clip over and over again of him forgetting his plan in the Bloomberg debate. But 2nd, if Ted Cruz runs as expected, if the TX primary is earlier this year, that's not going to look good for him because Cruz will win that decisively.
RINOs I wouldn't Support (In No particular Order)
1. Mitt Romney - Oh my God, he's like the zombie that just won't go away. Give it up Mitt, you couldn't beat the worst President ever where the economy was the main issue. Can't you take up sewing, or drinking, or book touring or something?
2. Chris Christie - This guy's draft stock falls further every day. Seriously, NJ is never going to be in play anyway and this guy will get obliterated in every primary in the South. But therein lies the problem: McCain and Romney (even moreso) showed that you can win the nomination without winning a contested primary in the South since proportional delegates keeps the conservative from catching up on the National total where NJ/NY and other Blue states are WTA. See the problem here?
3. Jeb Bush - Can Ted Cruz steal the Cuban-GOP vote in South FL from Jeb Bush? If he does, Bush is finished. But that South FL Cuban and Northeastern Snowbird GOP types vote as a block, you either get almost all of them or none, and the total pretty much decides the outcome of the State.
4. Newt Gingrich - I don't trust Newt. Period. Depending on the audience, he's the one guy that can say one thing, then a few hours later to another audience say the opposite and you have no idea where he stands. Still, I suspected if anyone was going to call out how bogus the delegate process was and move the states towards a more universal proportional system like the Dems use (which would be to his and other's advantage) I'd think it would be him. But Newt's been silent on this. Yet, I think his ego will prevent him from staying out.
5. Mike Hucabee - I can get my social issues and a better platform without the RINOnes with Cruz or Carson, than you very much
Candidates that are Good, I just don't think are Running:
1. Sarah Palin - She may or may not run. But until she does, can the Palin-only supporters please try to not trash the other conservatives in the race in the hope she gets in? I watched some of you guys do that to Bachmann last time (When I say Bachmann, you say Ed Rollins: Bachmann, Ed Rollins! -ok we got that out of the way). If Ted Cruz turns out to be the real deal, I don't think her running will be necessary. I would never have any problems voting for her, but I really think this time around, Cruz is the best candidate.
2. Bobby Jindal - I like Bobby, but he isn't running. I suspect guys like him and Carson would end up in a Cruz or Walker administration which is fine by me.
3. Nikki Haley - She's not running either.
4. Allen West - Good VP candidate, but not running
An accurate synopsis.
I agree with it all. I also think Michele Bachmann will not run but endorse Ted Cruz early, Rand Paul will run and will not do well and drop out after four primaries, He won’t hang around like Ron did without winning a single state.
We have got to unite behind Ted Cruz early and he is going to need MEGABUCKS in order to tap down the warchest of those other rinos....
Rand Paul On Shutdown: "Even Though It Appeared I Was Participating In It, It Was A Dumb Idea"I said throughout the whole battle that shutting down the government was a dumb idea. Even though it did appear as if I was participating in it, I said it was a dumb idea. And the reason I voted for it, though, is that it's a conundrum. Here's the conundrum. We have a $17 trillion debt and people at home tell me you can't give the president a blank check. We just can't keep raising the debt ceiling without conditions. So unconditionally raising the debt ceiling, nobody at home wants me to vote for that and I can't vote for that. But the conundrum is if I don't we do approach these deadlines. So there is an impasse. In 2011, though, we had this impasse and the president did negotiate. We got the sequester. If we were to extend the sequester from discretionary spending to all the entitlements we would actually fix our problem within a few years.[Posted on 11/19/2013 12:16:51 PM by Third Person]
Rand Paul: Time for GOP to soften war stance...by softening its edge on some volatile social issues and altering its image as the party always seemingly "eager to go to war... We do need to expand the party and grow the party and that does mean that we don't always all agree on every issue" ... the party needs to become more welcoming to individuals who disagree with basic Republican doctrine on emotional social issues such as gay marriage... "We're going to have to be a little hands off on some of these issues ... and get people into the party," Paul said.[Posted on 01/31/2013 5:08:50 PM PST by xzins]
Rand Paul's immigration speech...The Republican Party must embrace more legal immigration.[Posted on 03/19/2013 7:04:07 AM PDT by Perdogg]
Unfortunately, like many of the major debates in Washington, immigration has become a stalemate-where both sides are imprisoned by their own rhetoric or attachment to sacred cows that prevent the possibility of a balanced solution.
Immigration Reform will not occur until Conservative Republicans, like myself, become part of the solution. I am here today to begin that conversation.
Let's start that conversation by acknowledging we aren't going to deport 12 million illegal immigrants.
If you wish to work, if you wish to live and work in America, then we will find a place for you...
This is where prudence, compassion and thrift all point us toward the same goal: bringing these workers out of the shadows and into being taxpaying members of society.
Imagine 12 million people who are already here coming out of the shadows to become new taxpayers.12 million more people assimilating into society. 12 million more people being productive contributors.
Rand Paul calls on conservatives to embrace immigration reformLatinos, should be a natural constituency for the party, Paul argued, but "Republicans have pushed them away with harsh rhetoric over immigration." ...he would create a bipartisan panel to determine how many visas should be granted for workers already in the United States and those who might follow... [and the buried lead] "Imagine 12 million people who are already here coming out of the shadows to become new taxpayers...[Posted on 04/21/2013 1:52:42 PM PDT by SoConPubbie]
[but he's not in favor of amnesty, snicker, definition of is is]
Rand Slams Congress for Funding Egypt's Generals: 'How Does Your Conscience Feel Now?'Sen. Rand Paul is hammering his fellow senators for keeping billions in financial aid flowing to Egypt's military -- even as Cairo's security forces massacre anti-government activists. [by "anti-government activists" is meant church-burning Christian-murdering jihadists][Posted on 08/15/2013 5:44:10 PM PDT by Hoodat]
The list consists of Ted Cruz, Scott Walker, Ben Carson, Rick Santorum, Rick Perry, Mitt Romney, Chris Christie, Jeb Bush, Newt Gingrich, Mike Huckabee, Sarah Palin, Bobby Jindal, Nikki Haley, and...
Allen West: Al Sharpton Says Oscars are ‘Too White.’ I Say the NBA is ‘Too Black.’
January 16, 2015 By Greg Campbell
http://www.tpnn.com/2015/01/16/allen-west-al-sharpton-says-oscars-are-too-white-i-say-the-nba-is-too-black/
“Light in the loafers” Graham is thinking about running,
Romney/Graham 2016. Yeah, that’s the ticket!/s
Just now listening to the Fox News Channel (which largely supports “mainstream” GOPe candidates) and they are attacking Romney across the board.
I think this is a good indication that the GOPe is VERY worried about a “split the RINO vote” situation (with other RINOs siphoning votes from the designated GOPe candidate Jed Bush) developing for 2016 leading to a conservative victory should the conservative vote coalesce around TED CRUZ.
....”We have got to unite behind Ted Cruz EARLY...EARLY ...EARLY and he is going to need MEGABUCKS in order to tap down the warchest of those other rinos”....
Yes!!! Important...and we all know why that is.
Cruz hasn’t announced yet. One of the lessons of Obama’s victory of Hillary is that the blocking and tackling is very important in this sport. It’s not all about PR and debates.
Hillary’s team didn’t go seek delegates in caucus states and lost a lot of Super Delegates in the period after Super Tuesday. She was actually wining late primaires, but not by enough to grab the nomination.
That’s one reason that second runs are often successful. Romney, Reagan, Bush 41 ... all won on a second run.
Cruz can win on his first run, but he needs to set up the national organization now, and contest for every one of the 2400 delegates available.
I trust Cruz’s timing...he well knows the terrain.
However, as you say there are any variables surrounding an election...let alone the media attempts to frame the race. He can make the right moves yet still not make it, as any can.
I’m still not sure if he’s going to throw in his hat......though he’s who I would truly want to run and support.
Generally speaking the early ones get kicked around....so it might pay to wait.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.